Douglas Korthof

Battery Investing for Beginners

From the Aone filing, their losses to date are about twice their total sales. Other Lithium battery companies have this same economics, it means they lose $1 for each $1 in sales.

If you look at the Aone filing, most of their sales are batteries for tools, not for transportation; they've got, so I understand, about 100 plug-in prii running, with a conversion that costs $10,000. But if their cost is $20,000, this business is not sustainable; and, so far, the longest one has lasted less than a year. Perhaps it will do better than the others which have failed; we don't know yet. But that's the point: it's speculation, not fact, you're betting on.

Yes, we DO know how long existing Lithium will last; it's true that we don't know how long newer technologies will last, but then, neither do those who are betting their money that these untried batteries will perform in ways that existing Lithium failed at.

I'm not saying it's impossible that Aone (or one of the others) will succeed; just that propontents of Lithium EVs are, alarmingly, putting all their marbles on unproven ideas, and not using existing proven batteries that are cheaper and last longer.

Some of these, such as GM's Bob Lutz, are ignorant of battery economics in a breathtakingly sweeping manner. Don't be taken in the same way; remember, Lutz presided over the bankruptcy of Exide, before he was involved in the GM bankruptcy.

Peak shaving with EV batteries is bullshit, pure and simple. I've got a battery backup system and a solar system that makes more energy than needed to power two EVs (three, now); having produced $250 more energy last year than I used, why would I want to fall for the "peak shaving" fable??


On Sep 27 08:25 PM jerrydd wrote:

>
> Douglas, your posts are very your way or no way. But that is not
> true. Lithium is not expensive and is not likely to be. You only
> need less than .5lb of lithium/kwhr. So while recycling it is a good
> idea, it's not necessary. Look at my and Tom's above posts and follow
> the links and you'll find lots of .
>
> Nor are your other costs accurate anymore as they are yrs old now.
> Lithium has dropped a lot recently since they stopped using expensive
> materials like cobalt, etc.
>
> And used batteries for peak shaving at home is very viable, dropping
> your electric b50-75%. I use Cell phone tower take out batteries
> in 1 of my EV's and they work fine at very low costs.
>
> And I guaranty many EVer's will reuse every lithium battery that
> is usable they can get their hands on. Just like they do now with
> Prius packs, ganging up 4-8 packs. A companies rebuilds Prius packs
> too and that can be done with EV packs.
>
> As for how long Lithium batts will last, we don't know as many haven't
> been around long enough to see. But if after 10 yrs they still have
> 75% range left, for many that is fine. And you have to use some virgin
> lithium packs or you won't have any to recycle.
>
> Just because some companies make battery access hard doesn't mean
> they will in the future. In fact A Better Place will swap them in
> 90 seconds!!
>
> And more than lithium is going to be used as Sodium batteries are
> better for trucks, taxi's, vehicles that get used a lot so the heat
> energy loss isn't as much a problem. They are likely to last 20 yrs
> too.
>
> So lighten up. Things are not as bad as you think.
>
> On Sep 27 07:13 PM Douglas Korthof wrote: