Douglas Korthof

A123 vs. BYD and Other Irrational Battery Investments

Another insightful article.

While I don't believe in Lithium batteries for EVs and HEV, since lead-acid and NiMH are much cheaper and have a sunset (recycle) value instead of being discarded into landfills, certainly they work in power tools and consumer electronics. Li has been improved, but still there is
<br>no Lithium hybrid,
<br>no Lithium plug-in hybrid, and
<br> no Lithium EV battery pack has lasted more than 50K miles (Tesla included).
<br>Nissan leases the battery for $150/month; that should give you a hint about how high the cost. GM is already singing the weeps about VOLT-hoax costing, because they are using the wrong battery, of course.

Whereas, our NiMH EVs are still running over 100K miles, and the batteries contain ALL the metals needed for new batteries, they recycle 100% and don't require any mining of new metals; Lithium requires a continuous supply of new mined metal, which is unsustainable.

Aone may find a use for their batteries in EVs, but so far, the bulk of their revenue is in power tools, like all the other Lithium makers.

As for Valence, it's been touting its "superior technology" for a long time, but has only managed pitifully small sales, even compared to marginal companies who try to sell Lithium batteries. Valence has become an article of faith, with a circle-jerk of the same old sales pitch about the coming deluge of cash.

Well, as Aone will find out, it's a lot more difficult to make a living off Li batteries than it is to make hoopla about them.

Battery Investing for Beginners

John,
The ZEBRA battery was tried, but lasts only one year in EVs; the economics are impossible. Phoenix and others stumbled on that one, while they were flopping around looking for batteries. Sodium sulfur is kind of a joke; while it seems not much more temperature than a diesel engine, the heat density is much greater and it proved illusory in Ford's "EcoStar" boondoggle.


On Sep 28 01:03 AM John Petersen wrote:

> No1, there are two types of sodium based batteries. NGK Insulators
> of Japan makes a sodium sulfur battery that's used primarily in long
> discharge utility based applications. GE has recently announced plans
> to begin commercial production of sodium-metal-halide batteries that
> they plan to use first in hybrid locomotives. Both chemistries have
> their strengths and their weaknesses. The biggest weakness seems
> to be operating temperatures in the 400 to 700 degree range. A variant
> on the sodium metal halide chemistry called the Zebra battery has
> been proposed for use EVs. There's also talk out of Colorado that
> a company funded by the Coors family has found a way to make a sodium
> based battery that runs at lower temperatures. I don't generally
> talk much about the sodium batteries because they're hard to invest
> in, but the fundamental technologies have a lot of promise.

Battery Investing for Beginners

From the Aone filing, their losses to date are about twice their total sales. Other Lithium battery companies have this same economics, it means they lose $1 for each $1 in sales.

If you look at the Aone filing, most of their sales are batteries for tools, not for transportation; they've got, so I understand, about 100 plug-in prii running, with a conversion that costs $10,000. But if their cost is $20,000, this business is not sustainable; and, so far, the longest one has lasted less than a year. Perhaps it will do better than the others which have failed; we don't know yet. But that's the point: it's speculation, not fact, you're betting on.

Yes, we DO know how long existing Lithium will last; it's true that we don't know how long newer technologies will last, but then, neither do those who are betting their money that these untried batteries will perform in ways that existing Lithium failed at.

I'm not saying it's impossible that Aone (or one of the others) will succeed; just that propontents of Lithium EVs are, alarmingly, putting all their marbles on unproven ideas, and not using existing proven batteries that are cheaper and last longer.

Some of these, such as GM's Bob Lutz, are ignorant of battery economics in a breathtakingly sweeping manner. Don't be taken in the same way; remember, Lutz presided over the bankruptcy of Exide, before he was involved in the GM bankruptcy.

Peak shaving with EV batteries is bullshit, pure and simple. I've got a battery backup system and a solar system that makes more energy than needed to power two EVs (three, now); having produced $250 more energy last year than I used, why would I want to fall for the "peak shaving" fable??


On Sep 27 08:25 PM jerrydd wrote:

>
> Douglas, your posts are very your way or no way. But that is not
> true. Lithium is not expensive and is not likely to be. You only
> need less than .5lb of lithium/kwhr. So while recycling it is a good
> idea, it's not necessary. Look at my and Tom's above posts and follow
> the links and you'll find lots of .
>
> Nor are your other costs accurate anymore as they are yrs old now.
> Lithium has dropped a lot recently since they stopped using expensive
> materials like cobalt, etc.
>
> And used batteries for peak shaving at home is very viable, dropping
> your electric b50-75%. I use Cell phone tower take out batteries
> in 1 of my EV's and they work fine at very low costs.
>
> And I guaranty many EVer's will reuse every lithium battery that
> is usable they can get their hands on. Just like they do now with
> Prius packs, ganging up 4-8 packs. A companies rebuilds Prius packs
> too and that can be done with EV packs.
>
> As for how long Lithium batts will last, we don't know as many haven't
> been around long enough to see. But if after 10 yrs they still have
> 75% range left, for many that is fine. And you have to use some virgin
> lithium packs or you won't have any to recycle.
>
> Just because some companies make battery access hard doesn't mean
> they will in the future. In fact A Better Place will swap them in
> 90 seconds!!
>
> And more than lithium is going to be used as Sodium batteries are
> better for trucks, taxi's, vehicles that get used a lot so the heat
> energy loss isn't as much a problem. They are likely to last 20 yrs
> too.
>
> So lighten up. Things are not as bad as you think.
>
> On Sep 27 07:13 PM Douglas Korthof wrote:

Battery Investing for Beginners

Toxco pays NOTHING for the Lithium; they make money off the additives, Cd for example. The economics of battery production is something that is hidden from those putting their money down on stocks they basically know nothing about.

EV batteries, you need to realize, are high-power-output batteries; it's hidden in engineer-speak gobblydygood, but the EV1, for example, needed to put out up to 100 kW; the Tesla, up to 185 kW; the RAV4-EV, up to 50 kW. EV batteries age when their internal resistence rises; dV=I*r, or voltage drop depends on current times internal resistence. Spent EV batteries don't have this ability, so they are merely energy batteries, which can put out low power draw for a long time; for such batteries, it's always better to use lead-acid, which last longer and are uniform in their ability to put out energy.

So, in practice, for my 13 kWh battery backup for my solar system, I never considered spent EV batteries; I use lead AGM, which are balanced, matched and will last perhaps two decades, maybe more. Yes, I have spent EV batteries; they need to be recycled, but I never considered using them, in their rag-tag glory, for my solar system.

Lead "energy batteries" are so much cheaper than EV batteries, it makes more sense to buy new ones rather than try to match junk EV batteries. For powering a segway or wheelchair, who knows? But the market is not large enough to support an EV battery industry, if one were to develop.


On Sep 27 07:59 PM Don Harmon wrote:

> Oh contrare, Douglas. There are many uses for Lithium -ion battery
> packs which are considered "spent" by EV standards. These include
> solar, wind, e-bikes, and lots of wheelchairs for example. You just
> have a block to what this technology is capable of. You might also
> want to check out this company: www.toxco.com/ who just received
> a grant from the ARRA/DOE battery funds. They already have developed
> a real technology for recycling Lithium batteries, so you need to
> brush up on just how fast this sector is moving my friend!

Battery Investing for Beginners

Don: Also, the idea that spent EV batteries can be used in peak-shaving or solar backup is enticing, but without reality, like EEStor's claims. Most solar is grid-tied, not battery backup, and it's much cheaper to use solar for peak-shaving, with hydro storage even lower cost (at Lake Castaic, and other places, at night water is pumped up to the lake by 6 huge pump-generators powered by cheap off-peak Washington electric at 3 cents/kWh; the next day, during peak, the pumps turn into generators to retrieve the "stored" power at a cost no more than 4 cents). There's no market for spent EV batteries.


On Sep 27 06:52 PM Don Harmon wrote:

> Douglas, consider for a moment the useable life cycle of a LiFePO4
> battery pack in an automobile is 10 years. At this point the same
> battery pack still has over 75% of it's original power or energy
> density thus can be re-purposed for other markets like wind or solar
> giving it another 10 years of life (or more). Thus after 20 years
> these batteries might be ready to go to the re-cycling companies
> for reclaiming the original resources used to produce them.
>
> Don't you think that 20 years will suffice to develop the sufficient
> re-cycling technology that Lithium will require?
>
> It's only common sense when you really think about it!

Battery Investing for Beginners

So far, the maximum Lithium of any sort has powered an EV is 50,000 miles; and there's a shelf life issue. Besides this ominous fact of current Li life, the overall point is that you CANNOT talk seriously about cost until you consider logistics and sunset. Yes, it's common sense, which is sorely lacking in the supposed march to Lihtium.


On Sep 27 06:52 PM Don Harmon wrote:

> Douglas, consider for a moment the useable life cycle of a LiFePO4
> battery pack in an automobile is 10 years. At this point the same
> battery pack still has over 75% of it's original power or energy
> density thus can be re-purposed for other markets like wind or solar
> giving it another 10 years of life (or more). Thus after 20 years
> these batteries might be ready to go to the re-cycling companies
> for reclaiming the original resources used to produce them.
>
> Don't you think that 20 years will suffice to develop the sufficient
> re-cycling technology that Lithium will require?
>
> It's only common sense when you really think about it!

Battery Investing for Beginners

Lithium and nanotechnology *sounds* good; but it translates in my mind to the world "hogwash".

Lithium batteries have a bright EV future, perhaps, but they are about 4 to 10 times as expensive as NiMH and over 20 times as expensive as lead. Concentrating all EV efforts on Lithium, like concentrating all efforts on fuel cells, simply removes the EV program from a mass-market to a niche-demonstration program, "no threat" to the current oil-auto companies, and no chance for large-scale production of batteries or for the kind of growth that some seem to be expecting..

You are never going to build a mass-market for EVs or plug-in cars using virgin Lithium, it's always going to be a niche or demonstration market, maybe 500 or, gasp, even 5000, or, gurgle, 50,000 cars. The WORST thing is that there are already good batteries that will do the job; but no one is even looking at them.

I have no doubt that a battery technology COULD be developed, if there were anyone who wanted to do so in the existing oil-auto companies!

But so far, there is no interest in developing a battery recycling program, for example, needed for lowering costs. After the (curently 500) Tesla need new batteries, say after 60K miles, what's to be done with the old batteries? No one outside of, maybe, Tesla has a plan, and if they do, it's secret.

If there's to be a fleet of EVs, really, then it must be understood to form an "urban mine" of spent batteries for reuse in making new batteries, using all the same materials and ever-improved methods.

Like the Internal Combustion car business has been for the last 100 years.

EVs should be looked at as a source of "reforming" those batteries when they sunset; every metal is an artifact, except gold, it takes mining and refining. The re-use of old batteries, which have all the alloys and components needed, would be the way industry were headed, IF they were serious about a mass market EV; but of course, they are not serious.

The steel industry dramatically lowered costs when they used scrap steel as the basis for processing, instead of virgin iron ore! Put a lot of legacy companies out of business, with their legacy bessemer furnaces!!

Imagine, after 200K miles, when the NiMH batteries finally give up the ghost, they are brought to a reforming facility, all the rare earth metals, Ni, Ti, V, etc., fractionated and used directly to "refresh" the battery to new, using ever-more-successful techniques to prolong battery life, more robust batteries after each generation.

Or, let's say, when the good lead PSB batteries finally fry, after 50K miles, the high-quality lead is reformed into new batteries. Or, when Tesla's Lithium batteries are finished, they are brought to a reforming facility to make new Lithium batteries, using the same materials in the old batteries. Currently, this is much more expensive with old batteries than with new Lithium ore from brines, dooming the idea of economical production.

BTW, replacement and servicing of batteries ("logistical considerations") is something that NO one has looked at; replacing one battery on the EV1, RangerEV, Rav4-EV, etc., requires an expensive 4- to 8-hour process of "dropping the pack" that can only be done at the dealer and only with a $100K lift. Any competent M.E. would lose his lunch over that one!

Practical considerations and lowering life-cycle cost; that's the way to make a battery EV industry.

But it's not being done, nor looked at, by those Auto Alliance companies supposedly "racing" to "develop" EVs. Lutz, for example, pretends to think that GM can just "order" the batteries, and they will appear; and need have no concern for life-cycle cost.

Obviously, any expectations of a burgeoning, ballooning market for high-quality batteries would require such infrastructure as logistical support and planning as well as sunset or scrap value; the lack of the latter seems to invalidate the former.

8 Energy Storage Stocks that Can Expect Explosive Growth

California, among others, requires that Time of Use (TOU) tariffs be made available to any customer who requests it; in addition, the Solar Rights law requires that TOU be made available to residential solar customers. Thus, solar, which produces in peak, earns more credits via TOU which can be used for off-peak charging of a plug-in Electric car. This "PV-EV" combination helps the grid both ways: lowering daytime peak demand via solar, and raising the night-time off-peak usage, helping equalize loads and lower costs.


On Aug 16 12:55 PM Bindlepete wrote:

> The real change for lower cost electricity, via load leveling, wil
> arrive when the Regulatory agencies from FERC on down to the State
> levels demand that the consumer/homeowner be given an option for
> realistic time of day metering.
>
> Back in the 70's such a system was proposed but so adamantly opposed
> by the generating industry that they killed a bill mandating a parallel
> privilge to those available to industry for the residential user
> . The Senate refused to go to conference with the House Bill unless
> the section was removed.
>
> Gib=ve the residential consumer such an option of low cost electricity
> and they will run their dryers and washing machines with an off peak
> timer. Refrigerators could be so designed to effect real savings
> as can hot water systems. Europe does this with ease and no complaints.
> Why not we? Greed not public service.

Lithium-ion Batteries: 9 Years of Price Stagnation

Why not draw the obvious conclusion, that the (assumed) need for Lithium is FALSE?

NiMH and lead have proven successful in Electric cars and hybrids; NiMH is the lowest-cost battery that lasts more than 100,000 miles (perhaps 200,000 miles, we don't know yet).

NiMH batteries have carried EVs over 200 miles in range; 400 lbs. of NiMH, the same weight as would be used in the so-called VOLT, would yield 12 kWh of accessible energy, enough to go 60 miles in an EV or EREV.

The Toyota RAV4-EV has proven over 17,000,000 miles of all-electric travel on NiMH batteries. Why fool with Lithium, when NiMH is recyclable for CASH, long-lasting, and 25% the cost of Lithium? NO cost decrease for Lithium, despite the economies of scale in lap top batteries; and no increase in life (no Lithium EV has so far gone more than 50,000 miles without significant battery degradation).

GM's insistence on using Lithium just shows they don't want to make an EV, and are lying about their intentions.

Lead-acid PSB 1260 batteries carried the EV1 more than100 miles on a charge, more than needed for the so-called VOLT.

DOE Report: Lithium-ion Batteries Are Not Ready for Prime Time

Another ignorant comment by a sockpuppet. Most successful EVs go 120 miles on a charge; the EV1 with NiMH went an EPA certified 140 miles, and would have done 200 with superior NiMH batteries.

But the whole point of the PHEV is that the gas or diesel engine-generator kicks on automatically to create electric if and when the battery is low (say, after 100 miles of driving), and the battery stands ready to absorb excess electric from the genset or from regenerative braking.

In fact, the energy curve of an EREV (serial hybrid) going up a hill and coming down that hill is identical to the EV, if the hill is low enough to ascend on battery power alone (you won't even fire up the genset, for example, ascending to Big Bear or Mt. Baldy); for higher hills, say 15,000 ft., the engine-generator cranks on when the battery is low, but shuts off when the car recharges on the way back down. You arrive in both cases with the battery charged, less 20%.


On Feb 16 08:05 AM Renzo wrote:

> Thank you for another concise analysis of the problems inherent to
> the use of lithium batteries in HEV’s and PHEV’s. There seems to
> be a consensus that a 40-mile range is adequate to make a PHEV commercially
> viable. I’d like to know where, exactly, people expect to drive these
> vehicles. A vehicle may have a 40-mile range in a moderate, costal

DOE Report: Lithium-ion Batteries Are Not Ready for Prime Time

LOL! It was BUSH who blew all our money (about $10T) down the toilet!! You are funny if not so ignorant.


On Feb 16 11:55 AM Paul Killinger wrote:

> The motto for the crew now in charge in Washington is to never let
> the facts get in the way of a good story. So they won't. If they
> can print enough new money, they'll buy one of these clunkers for
> each of us.
> Indeed, they can use the proceeds from their upcoming cap and trade
> scheme for funding. Fasten your seat belts everyone, we've only just
> begun!
>

DOE Report: Lithium-ion Batteries Are Not Ready for Prime Time

A123 batteries are not only too expensive, but they are apparently inappropriate for use in an EV. Any car that runs on batteries alone (such as the Chey VOLT for the first 40 miles) needs three things:
1. High power output (at least 50 kW, 400A at 120v; preferrably 100 kW or even more); this tends to break down some batteries, perhaps A123;
2. Deep cycling, putting out enough power to go 40 miles takes 10 kWh in an Electric car;
3. Long cycle life, at least 1000, or about 5 years.
GM chose the well-proven LG-Chem over A123, we know that LG only lasts 50K miles in the Tesla, but GM might hope to stretch that out by only cycling 30-80. They are battery ignoramuses, however, and will probably fail.


On Feb 16 04:04 PM speculawyer wrote:

> A123 batteries are expensive . . . but they are nice due to their
> high-power output and reliability. But, as with so many other things,
> China may knock out the US makers like Valence and A123 due to low
> cost (unless they do everything in asia too). The $0.50/wh Thundersky
> LiFePO4s can't be ignored. But since the whole market is under-capacity,
> it is hard to get good price numbers. Valence seems to be selling
> every battery they make.
>
> I'd like to see some successful Li-Ion makers from the USA (and manufacturing
> in the USA). But I'd rather buy Chinese batteries than Saudi oil.

DOE Report: Lithium-ion Batteries Are Not Ready for Prime Time

Actually, it's because Lithium reacts explosively with H2O, and the lithium metal (Lithium comes from Greek Lithos, stone) is so hard to separate out, it takes a LOT of electric energy plus working in either cryogenic or oxygen-free environments. Whereas, Lead and Nickel are relatively easy to recycle: once you have produced a metal, there is no need to discard it!! You need to recognize that all metals (except gold, which is found in nature) are, ipso facto, an artifact! It takes effort to purify them; that's why we use scrap iron for the modern electric furnace, because there is a "minefield" of existing scrap metals that can be reused.


On Feb 16 01:04 PM Advill wrote:

> Can somebody tell me why producing lithium batteries is SO Expensive?.
>
>
> Mining lithium salts is not more expensive that nickel, zinc or lead,
> I dont argument about DOE report for me it´s a fact.... but why?.
>
>
> The problem with cheap lithium right now is the geographically highly
> concentrated mines available (Bolivia-Chile and Canada-China), in
> my point of view there is not a clear case in the cost of lithium
> against other minerals (except strategic considerations as it was
> with oil at the begining in S.XX.).
>
> Perhaps here the lithium batteries. producers can explain in detail
> why they are charging 10,000 USD per car set of batts, for me the
> key is why they are charging so much.
>
> Regards

DOE Report: Lithium-ion Batteries Are Not Ready for Prime Time

Learn something: almost all lead-acid batteries are recycled, lead is a valuable industrial metal. Lithium batteries have no recycle value, since it's energy-intensive to produce the Lithium metal needed for the batteries. Li-po batteries are simpley thrown away, stupidly, wasting the effort to make them and refine the lithium.

NiMH also recycles, since Nickel is a valuable metal primarily used in stainless steel, monel, and for corrosive enviroments.


On Feb 16 01:54 PM Waterskius wrote:

> USABC is a conglomerate of the "not haves". These are all companies
> that are not there yet.
>
> If you contrast those companies to VLNC, ABAT, CBAK and PC you will
> find a different story. They are ready to go with the chemistry,
> investing in manufacturing and going to achieve lower price points
> with economies of scale. VLNC for one is offering 100 miles per charge
> in the commercial vehicles and a possible 10 year batter life (see
> Tanfield website). Iron Magnesuim Phosphate is much more stable (no
> fires) and can be disposed of in an environmentally friendly way.
>
>
> The thing most people don't like with lead acid is they are environmentally
> unfriendly when disposed.
>
> Please enlighten me.

DOE Report: Lithium-ion Batteries Are Not Ready for Prime Time

<b>Nickel Metal Hydride</b> is the only proven successful EV and hybrid battery. It's lower initial cost, recycles (so the only real cost is manufacturing), is safe, lasts longer than the life of the car, even a Toyota car, and is the only battery chemistry owned by, and suppressed by, an oil company (Chevron owns control of the patent rights, having acquired them on Oct. 10, 2000 from General Motors).

So the bottom line is, if you aren't using NICKEL METAL HYDRIDE batteries, you are just bullshitting about Electric cars and/or hybrids.