Douglas Korthof

An IPO Reality Check

Actually, the hype about Lithium is just that -- hype. Projections are not reality, and all the current hybrids that are for sale use NiMH, only 1 kWh per car; and the only successful all-electric EVs also used NiMH, the Altera from Nissan was a collosal failure, in the view of drivers (no one was permitted to buy any plug-in EV except the Toyota RAV4-EV, still running to this day).

Looking at production costs and the current product mix, there would have to be a big change in economics and demand, plus much lower cost, for A123 projections to be veridical imo.


On Sep 26 10:49 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> efn The spectacular debut of the IPO for A123 Systems (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> a maker of high powered, quick recharging lithium ion phosphate batteries
> using advanced nanophoshate technology, put a great shining spotlight
> on a sector I have been harping about all year (search my data base
> for “Butch Cassidy” by clicking here at www.madhedgefundtrader...
> ). The initial price talk was at $8, the IPO came out at $13.50,
> and the first day of trading took it up to a meteoric 43% to $19.20
> on the first day! I had a flashback to the dot.com boom. Where are
> the gold flecks on the sushi, my free IPO hat, and the vodka luge?
> The fact is that this is an industry that is going to be huge in
> the next 20 years. The market for lithium ion batteries, which offer
> a 4X improvement over ferrous oxide predecessors in energy stored
> per unit of weight, is expected to grow from $32 million this year,
> to $74 billion by 2020. That is no typo; I really did leap from millions
> to billions. Their use is expected to spread from cell phones, to
> the electric car industry, to endless other applications. We are
> still in the ground floor elevator of the Empire State building.
> But outside of a few stocks like Chile’s Sociedad Quimica Y Minera
> (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), there have been few ways in
> which an investor can get involved in the lithium space (see my call
> to buy the stock in February before its healthy 60% move up at www.madhedgefundtrader...
> ). So when a small company like A123 opens a window, the investors
> dog pile in. Watch this space. Lithium could be the new crude, and
> companies like A123 could become the next Exxon (if Exxon doesn’t
> become the next Exxon). Kiss up to your long neglected broker and
> try to get in on the next allocation.