Douglas Korthof

IPO Analysis: The Ultimate Story Stock, A123 Systems

Lithium has NOT proven itself as more than a niche market in Battery EVs. The proven battery chemistry is LEAD and NIMH, that's why GM and Chevron went out of their way to kill those and don't seem to even care about killing Lithium. Lithium is much more expensive, and doesn't last as long as NiMH. So what's to like?? An unproven technology that the one foe who SHOULD hate it, Chevron, has not bothered to stop. Since Chevron hasn't bothered to kill Lithium, you can bet that they aren't worried about it! So the battery EV market is problematic, at best, for Lithium.

The energy storage idea is just plain bullshit. It's not practical to use batteries to store solar energy or for peak shaving!! Utilities pump water up to places like Lake Castaic to "store" off-peak energy; the loss is at most 20%, there isn't any big replacement costs, as there would be for Lithium, and it's proven and reliable. So yes, I doubt this; it's as much hogwash as the idea of a large market for solar backup batteries. I have 8-year-old lead-acid backup batteries that cost less than $100/kWh; why would I go to Lithium for my solar electric backup system?? At a cost of $1200/kWh??? And how many people have solar electric systems, much less battery backup systems?

The power tool market is fine, but look at the numbers: it's just not enough money to support this kind of hype, IMO.

The big question is, if it's a bubble, when will the peak of the bubble be reached?

8 Energy Storage Stocks that Can Expect Explosive Growth

California, among others, requires that Time of Use (TOU) tariffs be made available to any customer who requests it; in addition, the Solar Rights law requires that TOU be made available to residential solar customers. Thus, solar, which produces in peak, earns more credits via TOU which can be used for off-peak charging of a plug-in Electric car. This "PV-EV" combination helps the grid both ways: lowering daytime peak demand via solar, and raising the night-time off-peak usage, helping equalize loads and lower costs.


On Aug 16 12:55 PM Bindlepete wrote:

> The real change for lower cost electricity, via load leveling, wil
> arrive when the Regulatory agencies from FERC on down to the State
> levels demand that the consumer/homeowner be given an option for
> realistic time of day metering.
>
> Back in the 70's such a system was proposed but so adamantly opposed
> by the generating industry that they killed a bill mandating a parallel
> privilge to those available to industry for the residential user
> . The Senate refused to go to conference with the House Bill unless
> the section was removed.
>
> Gib=ve the residential consumer such an option of low cost electricity
> and they will run their dryers and washing machines with an off peak
> timer. Refrigerators could be so designed to effect real savings
> as can hot water systems. Europe does this with ease and no complaints.
> Why not we? Greed not public service.