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  • Despite Mixed Expectations, Investors Should Take A Closer Look At Amazon [View article]
    Just plain stupid analysis. Amazon is trying a hundred different things to increase sales. That costs money. They don't have one loss leader, they have many loss leaders. They're desperate to keep increasing sales at any cost. Plain and simple. If you can't make money with this level of sales, you're incompetent.
    Oct 23, 2014. 04:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • misses by $0.21, misses on revenue [View news story]
    now how do you justify a $300 stock price? More like $30. Still at 800 PE, 160 forward earnings. This is a total scam by the institutions to prop up a failing, poorly run company. How can analysts hammer Apple which makes tons of money and go ape shit over Amazon? Somebody's in collusion to keep this stock afloat.
    Oct 23, 2014. 04:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Amazon's Losses Widen [View article]
    If you read the conference call transcript, it's downright scary. The CFO wouldn't give any meaningful info in answering the questions. It was all generalities. "We're excited". "We have more customers". "We're investing in China. We're happy". He couldn't explain improved gross margins, reasons for international growth/declines (except consumption tax in Japan). No numbers sales or margin numbers on the phone, on Kindle unlimited. He said they don't break out their cost of sales. It's all sounds too rosy. I find this an amazing lack of info for a company so large.
    Jul 25, 2014. 12:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Yelp Ever Justify Its Ridiculous Valuation? [View article]
    Yelp is a great example of a stock being pumped up by analysts whose sole job is to please the institutional investors who own a high percentage of the stock. It's a legal pump and dump scheme. They invent projections and numbers and fantasy growth, ignoring the fact that, as this article points out, if your expenses increase more than your revenue, you will never make money. Why are analysts so obsessed with higher revenues? It's obvious that Yelp has a failed business model. If they haven't made any money yet, how will they ever make money? Have any of you ever paid Yelp for anything? I haven't, but I've used Yelp to look at free reviews. Why would I need to pay them? Certainly, they'll never make enough to justify their stock valuation. In the meantime, the analysts all wink at each other while they post higher target prices, knowing that the institutions they work for will have sold the stock long before it falls to earth. So, you get on the bandwagon as long as you want, until the bankwagon breaks down and crashes. When will that happen? Who knows?
    May 30, 2014. 12:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yelp: Popular, But Reaching An Upper Limit [View article]
    Yelp admits that it's "product", restaurant reviews, has a 25% failure rate (that the reviews are fake). What other company would be in business with a 25% defect rate? Can you imagine 25% of Iphones being defective or 25% of Tesla's cars being defective? The fallacy always of analysts is that revenue growth will continue indefinitely into the future. That's like saying a baseball pitcher who wins 20 games this year after winning 10 games the year before is projected to win 40 games the next year (double the prior year). That's how crazy the expectations game is on Wall St. Yelp actually loses more money as their revenues go higher. That tells me it's not a viable business.
    Nov 12, 2013. 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: It's Not The Company, It's The Valuation [View article]
    Have you ever seen a signed financial statement for a US public company that said, "this year, we're being more practical, so we're using NON-GAAP numbers". Just because a company has more cash, that doesn't mean it's making money. There is only one set of rules to get to net income per share and that is GAAP. Other massaging of the numbers, especially the pooh-poohing of that pesky GAAP thing by Musk, is pure marketing spin and hype.
    Nov 6, 2013. 02:48 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Of The Day: Yelp [View article]
    YELP Is insane. It's trading at 300 times next year's earnings ESTIMATES. No matter how much revenue increases, if you can't make money off of increased revenue, then you've got a lousy business. Especially when you've adimitted that 20% of your "product", on line reviews, are fake. Who among you has ever paid a dime to look at a review on YELP? I haven't. According to Yahoo Finance, institutional investors own 121% of YELP. It's all a scam to pump up the price by institutions. How else can you explain it?
    Oct 24, 2013. 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Flails Wildly [View article]

    You are so right. I see the same thing. A company without direction, throwing things at the wall to see which ones stick. But the game is rigged. Institutions hold 70% of the shares. The analysts who work for them are told to pump up the stock so the stock can only go up. Any analyst who tells the truth is fired. So, the analysts keep feeding the beast. This quarter Amazon may report a net loss of hundreds of millions of dollar. But analysts will say "see, they're growing their revenue 20%. Bezos is a genius".
    Oct 16, 2013. 03:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy LinkedIn, Facebook Or Yelp? [View article]
    Yelp is only one of lots of stocks that defy logic. Never made a dime, stock continues to rise, and Yahoo shows their next year's P/E as 195. That's assuming they finally make a profit. How can investors bid up a stock that has good sales growth but, then loses more money? Isn't that a sign of a lousy company? Something is wrong here. Shorting YELP seems like a good bet, but so far it hasn't worked.
    Jun 24, 2013. 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yelp's Growth Increasingly Relies On Its Success With Mobile Ads [View article]
    Where does it end? Who isn't going after mobile ads? As a phone user, I hate ads on my phone just like I hate clicking on a story on the internet and having a 30 second ad. I close that window right away. Advertisers are going to start understanding that consumers are resisting ads in a big way, whether it's mobile, internet, tv or radio. I changed channels to five tv stations yesterday and every one was showing a commercial. Yelp has no distinct business model advantage over anyone else. How they stay in business is a mystery to me. They've never made a dime of profit. Companies like Yelp keep saying they're going to make money and some of them never do.
    Jun 6, 2013. 01:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Is Future Growth Enough To Justify Current Valuation? [View article]
    Don't you see something wrong here? Why is Apple able to launch new products with great gross margins and profits and Amazon can't? Bezos doesn't know what his business is now. He keeps trying new businesses to add sales without profits. How is that a successful business? This isn't a new company either. How can Amazon continue to sell a lot with no profits and get investors to keep buying the story? Their last quarterly profit was $0.08 per share which was over 3000 times current earnings. How can anyone rationally recommend this stock at those levels? Makes no sense to me.
    Apr 24, 2013. 03:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heartware's Public Offering: Takeover Bid For Sunshine Heart? [View article]
    I'll interpret HTWR's raising of cash for you. "We are losing money hand over fist and will run out of money unless we get some suckers to pay us $86 per share to feed our horribly managed business". Get back to basics. The company is losing over $6 per share. It just diluted its shareholder equity. It's best estimate "guess" for this year is a net LOSS of over $2 per share. There is no way, shape or form that this company's stock is worth $86 or $88, under even the most optimistic projections. Caveat emptor.
    Mar 25, 2013. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Amazon Law' Is The Signal To Sell Far Overpriced Amazon [View article]
    You're right on most counts. AMZN is grossly overvalued. No way you can justify the current stock price based on a net loss or on the fantasy of next year's projected earnings and FPE of 71. This mantra about a restoration of the payroll tax being a tax increase is nonsense. I learned the formula in math class long ago. -2 (temporary reduction in payroll tax) +2 (restoration of tax to prior levels) = 0. Everybody broke even. Nothing was lost. Income was gained for two years. The payroll tax just went "on sale" for a couple years and then the sale was over. Let's not keep misrepresenting these restorations as tax increases, conveniently forgetting all the benefits gained over the years, like with the Bush tax cuts. It's a common trick mostly used by politicians to scare people into getting what they want.
    Mar 22, 2013. 01:30 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Beats Apple On This 'Buffett-esque' Metric, But It Still Faces Headwinds [View article]
    The only thing that matters is EPS. Analysts, in order to justify their jobs, have focused on other metrics. Now this nonsense. You have ebitda, you have gross profits, you have operating profit, return on equity, return on capital. Companies manipulate their expenses to make some of these categories look good. Cisco reports "non-recurring charges" every quarter. They take the operating profits from those charges, but ignore operating losses and call it "non-recurring" That's why EPS is the only true measure. It should be compared to the prior year to see how a company's doing, instead of being compared to "expectations", which is analyst speak and gibberish. Just like the CPI. Well, if we take out food and energy and housing, then inflation is tame. It's all a perceptions game of spinning it in the best light.
    Mar 21, 2013. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: A Perfect Hedge [View article]
    So let's say Tesla, someday way in the future, will make $1 per share. Are you willing to pay 150 times earnings for a fledgling car company when 100 year old car companies are trading at 9 to 16 times current earnings? Doesn't compute. Musk is promising a lot. You're buying into his hype.
    Mar 15, 2013. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment