k45's Comments

Why Exxon Should Significantly Increase its Dividend

Sat, 10 Oct 2009 08:34:08 -0400

The higher dividends for many of the European oil companies is misleading because U.S. investors have European taxes deducted before we get our money :(

I do agree that Exxon should pay a better dividend.

I don't see Exxon going out of business in my lifetime. A good portion of their profits come from downstream operations. They also have smart management.

Exxon is not a company that stampedes with the herd during short term problems. They are in it for the long haul. Just like they didn't overspend during last year's peak in crude prices. Some companies rushed out and bought at the peak. Exxon sat quietly by and watched the $150/bbl prices evaporate.

I think watching Exxon's actions gives us a more accurate picture of the future energy situation than anything our government or media pushes.

7 Dividend Stocks Increasing Cash Payouts

Mon, 05 Oct 2009 07:28:53 -0400

"1) Is the investment increasing its dividend each year, "

In early 2006, ConAgra's quarterly dividend was .273. It new .20 quarterly dividend is definitely is not "increasing it's dividend each year"

Six ADRs with Largest Market Cap and Best Yields

Mon, 10 Aug 2009 08:49:29 -0400

A lot of foreign stocks tax dividends for U.S. investors so the apparent dividend yield is NOT what you get.

A Review of Two Dutch ADRs: Reed Elsevier and CNH Global

Mon, 06 Apr 2009 09:00:30 -0400

How can CNH be "wholly owned by Fiat Spa" and be publicly traded?

Gabelli Equity Trust Preferred B: When Bad Is Good

Mon, 06 Apr 2009 08:56:17 -0400

AAA rated by whom? The same fools that rated other toxic assets as AAA? The ratings services have shown themselves to be worthless.

April's Little-Known Bullish Trend

Thu, 02 Apr 2009 09:18:33 -0400

Very good study, thanks for the research.

8 Changes GM Needs to Make

Wed, 01 Apr 2009 08:51:12 -0400

Probably the only management worse than Detroit's is Washington.

Government subsidizing/taxing distorts reality (the ethanol scam anyone?) and ends in long term disaster.

Insisting (via outrageous tax manipulation) that people buy what they don't want is a disaster.

McDonald’s: Dividend Stock Analysis

Sat, 28 Mar 2009 08:36:13 -0400

"From the end of 1998 up until December 2008 this dividend growth stock has delivered a ***negative*** annual average total return of 6.70% to its shareholders."

I think you need to recheck your numbers. Even without dividends, Yahoo Finance, Goggle Finance and Valueline all show POSITIVE returns for the last ten years.

The World's 50 Safest Banks in 2009

Fri, 06 Mar 2009 07:19:30 -0500

Agreed on everything said about the corrupt rating agencies. GE is still rated AAA with a "possibility" of a downgrade in TWO years. By then the problem will either be past (unlikely) or GE will have gone down the tubes.

Honest ratings is something NOT provided by the rating agencies.

US Bancorp Cuts Dividend by 88%

Fri, 06 Mar 2009 07:14:44 -0500

My ex wife knew the top management in USB. She had high regard for Grundhoffer (the now retired CEO) but a very low opinion of Richard Davis who is now at the helm. I've been leary since Davis took over, wondering how he would run things down.

"It is important for our shareholders to know that we are not reducing the dividend and preserving capital from a position of weakness, but from a position of strength and a desire to continue to invest in and expand our business." Yeah right. Typical Richard Davis smoke to cover up the problems he has brought. The cards are falling down.

Your Oil Stocks Aren't Coming Back

Fri, 20 Feb 2009 08:55:36 -0500

<<>>

Please go back and check your information. Cisco was selling at a P/E of 300 right before the tech stock bubble burst. A 100 PE had been "normal" during Cisco's big growth years, but that was almost reasonable since the PEG was 1 (yes, Cisco was doubling earnings each year for many years). At that point, Cisco had the largest market cap in the world, bigger than either GE or Exxon. The storm flags were flying!

Junk Bonds Today: Realistic Levels?

Thu, 19 Feb 2009 10:42:47 -0500

<<< However, the real unknown is how high the default rate will get.>>>

True. However, many of those bonds at the most risk are already trading at steep discounts (30-50% off of face value). Even if they default, they probably won't be worthless. I've heard that GM(?) is offering 30 cents on the dollar.

Personally I've picked up several individual junk bonds as well as the ETF. Time will only tell if they were a wise choice.

8 Possible Targets for Exxon's Cash

Thu, 19 Feb 2009 08:41:22 -0500

Since when does wise money management make a hog? Oh yeah, since our government wouldn't recognize wise management if it hit them between the eyes.

Exxon already pays more U.S. taxes than than it returns to shareholders.

On Feb 18 01:56 PM bosun.j wrote:

> Sitting on $38B? $14B Q3? Yep, time to send them a tax bill for $30B!
> Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered!

Exxon Mobil: Rationale for Being Short

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 08:15:45 -0500

As crude oil prices drop, Exxon's profit margins in it's chemical operations and retail sales improve. True, those do not fully offset the reduction in profits from crude, but it certainly provides a cushion.

Long term, Exxon has been a good investment through up and down markets. It's a very well managed company with the financial strength to continue building shareholder value. Exxon didn't run out and make expensive acquisitions when the oil bubble peaked. I look for them to make acquisitions at the bottom. Management is probably wiser than most of us.

Procter and (Less) Gamble

Mon, 16 Feb 2009 08:44:57 -0500

Buffett didn't *buy* P&G stock. He bought Gillette, which was bought out by P&G with P&G shares. He has held onto the shares AFAIK.

Foreclosure Moratoriums: It's Time to Get Real

Mon, 16 Feb 2009 08:35:50 -0500

If we keep people in houses they cannot afford, we keep the housing prices too high so that deserving people cannot afford them.

Housing prices have to come down to historical norms. Until then, houses are overpriced and wise thinking people cannot afford them.

The bubble HAS to be worked off. Anything that tries to maintain the status quo just extends the bubble. Eventually it HAS to be worked off. Until that point, the pain continues.

Berkshire: Little Downside Left at Current Levels

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 14:19:51 -0500

Todd,

You are writing from a logical standpoint. Unfortunately the market is driven by emotion. I've been in and out of BRK.B a couple of times, I usually make the wrong decisions with it. Obviously an excellent company, but it's harder to judge what it's stock is going to do.

Cardinal Health: A Grainger-Like Investment

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 08:48:19 -0500

According to Valueline, CAH is spinning off it's high growth Clinical & Medical Products division, which as contributed nearly 40% of CAH's operating profit in 2008. How will CAH perform after C&MP is spun off?

Why Are Companies Hesitant to Cut Dividends?

Wed, 11 Feb 2009 08:41:25 -0500

Oftentimes company stock prices are held up by the dividend. Investors seek good, reliable, stable investments. Companies that have built a history of solid dividends for 10, 20, 30 years are hesitant to destroy that history for a short term problem and lose their reputation. Also, many older investors depend on the income from dividends. Dropping the dividend will send those investors away, hurting the stock price even more.

That being said, I am concerned about companies that borrow money to pay a dividend. It takes quality management to find the right balance. For some companies, it is the right approach. For others, it's covering up serious problems.

Equities vs. Inflation

Sat, 07 Feb 2009 14:22:11 -0500

Gold seems to susceptible to manipulation. Everybody from speculators (remember the Hunt brothers and silver?) to central banks. Gold has little intrinsic value (what can you *really* do with it?) but rather is often priced on the "greater fool" theory. The world really *can* exist without gold.

There are other commodities, however, that the modern world cannot exist without. Oil and agriculture seem to be two of them. Yes, there certainly is speculation and manipulation going on there too, but there is real consumption and real need for oil and food, unlike gold.

Husky Energy Dividends Get Cut - More Companies to Follow?

Fri, 06 Feb 2009 08:42:42 -0500

I doubt there is much correlation between the pink sheet companies and the oil majors. What's the long term dividend history of the pink sheet companies? I'd bet they are not "Dividend Aristocrats" and don't have a long term history to defend.

It's Time for GE to Lose Its Triple-A

Sat, 24 Jan 2009 11:00:16 -0500

Obviously Warren Buffet didn't think GE was rated AAA when he got 10% yields from them.

It's Time for GE to Lose Its Triple-A

Sat, 24 Jan 2009 10:57:21 -0500

"If GE still has a AAA rating, that says more about the rating agencies than GE."

Absolutely right! The rating agencies are a joke and ought to go out of business. But they won't because they are supported by companies (like GE) who buy their ratings.

Putting GE on creditwatch for a "possible downgrade in two years" is an absolute joke! In two years either GE will be bankrupt or will be past it's problems. Obviously the rating agencies and totally phony.

Circuit City: Closing Time

Sat, 17 Jan 2009 09:05:58 -0500

Last time we went to CC (a few years ago), the salesperson was totally clueless about his products. We ended up buying at Walmart. Of course they have no customer service people but at least we can read the box and pay less.

Best Buy should be next, their store management is customer hostile. We won't go there either.

Restaurant Spending, Then and Now

Sat, 17 Jan 2009 08:59:22 -0500

Considering what my wife spends for groceries, we've come to the conclusion that eating out is not much more expensive than eating at home, maybe even less expensive.

Restructurings and Bailouts

Sat, 17 Jan 2009 08:52:09 -0500

I suspect that most of the future bad news is already built into the market. Sure, things will be pushed around a lot by the speculators and momentum players, but the majority of the market participants already expect the worst in the economy.

Risks to U.S. AAA Rating Have Grown

Wed, 14 Jan 2009 08:44:15 -0500

"Backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government". What a joke! A bunch that couldn't balance a checkbook and uses red ink by the trainload. It's a pyramid scheme and everyone is fearful that someone will actually tell the truth that the emperor is naked.

Someone recently commented that Ford is in better financial shape than the U.S. Government, the only difference being that Ford cannot print money.

Geopolitical Energy: Centered on the Caspian Sea (Part 1 of 2)

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:48:48 -0500

Thanks for the eye opening explanations regarding Afghanistan.

I agree, oil (and well managed oil companies) is probably the most solid hedge for whatever comes down the pike. Gold seems more manipulated and not as solid of a hedge. (Yes, I say that fully realizing how much manipulation is done to the oil market.)

Junk Soars Again

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 09:14:58 -0500

We have had an insane "flight to safety" where everything but Treasuries were dumped. Negative yields in Treasuries was just plain insane, while everything else was ignored and junk bond prices dropped unreasonably low. Junk bond yields are higher than the associated risks justify. When people wake up to the insanity of buying Treasuries, they will look for something with a decent risk/reward ratio. With zero reward, Treasuries do not have a reasonably risk/REWARD ratio. Investment grade bonds aren't much better.

Exxon Apostasy: A Closer Look at the Oil Giant's Real Valuation

Mon, 05 Jan 2009 09:35:21 -0500

<<>>

Exxon has worked hard to do anything reasonable to remediate the problem. Of course to some greedy people, nothing will ever be enough.

Do you realize that MOST of the Exxon Valdez problem was BP's fault? BP was contractually responsible for fast response and containment. They cut corners and failed in both areas: fast response and containment. If BP had done the job they were responsible for, the magnitude of the problem would have been tremendously smaller.

<<
Integrity and honesty will always trash greed, something that gets taught to the world's population about every eighty years or so to sober it up. >>>

I feel the same way. I hope we are right.