Robert D.

Google’s Post-Earnings Trading: Don't Look for Consistency

I'm intrigued by your analysis on Google, and just have a few questions.

1. Why/how did you choose the 570/580 call spread specifically? Why not others OTM or closer ITM?
2. What percentage of your portfolio would you allocate to a trade like this? Given the amount of time (years of research apparently), I'm assuming you must have taken a very large position?
3. What are your plans for the next earnings releases (pre and post the release)?

Thanks!

Why I'm Bullish on Graco

Sean, look into DIT, it offers a little more than 12% discount.

Buy Bronco Drilling on Continental Resources Rig Expansion Plan

Would you revise your recommendation after an earnings report like that? $0.37 loss vs est. $0.33 loss doesn't sound as bad as "Utilization for its land drilling in the third quarter was 23 percent, down from 84 percent a year earlier."

i'm also a little confused on the numbers relating to these "possible future contracts" that they might be expecting. Any idea how large?

Electronic Game Card Enters the Chinese Lottery Market

I loaded up in the recent drop, range $1.40-$1.50.

Hidden Clues Yield Opportunities in Amcon and Hong Kong Highpower Technology

I agree w/ jerrydd, there are much better plays in the battery market industry. The one problem with this industry is that it's still evolving, and a company can be wiped out by competition very quickly by new technology. I would focus on a company's backlog if I am looking into batteries. This will give the investor some sense of security over the next 6-12 month period. I myself, prefer ABAT, which produces li-ion batteries (far superior to NiMH).

As far as DIT, I've also traded this one for a while, and I see this going much higher in 2010 ($125-$150). They are a big "turnaround" story. They are currently listed as a small cap, but this will change, and big money will flow pushing this even higher.

AeroGrow Due for Some Pruning, Vertical Branding Waiting to Fly

A picture hanger, is just a picture hanger. Thanks for providing lots of information on RedChip's compensation, and just about nothing about Vertical Branding. This is what happens when CFAs get compensated for placing extravagant "buy" targets on companies that don't deserve them. You can dream to own a successful company and make lots of money, just do some research before you invest!

China Growth Development (OTCBB:CGDI), a New GeoSpecial

Excellent analysis on your part, and thanks for gathering additional information from other investors. My one concern investing in this company as mentioned in your analysis is the lack of leverage, and the possibility of them issuing additional equity. Dilution could be a serious investment risk for this company.

My one question which I was a bit unclear about in the 10k was in regards to the ownership structure. Can you provide more detail on this? Thanks!

China Agritech - A Risk/Reward Opportunity

This played out great as an uplist play, having moved out of the OTC, the stock rallied to $20 (would have been $5 adjusting for its 4:1 reverse split). It's now back down to the $15 range, in less than a week.

From their website:

BEIJING, Oct. 20 /PRNewswire-Asia-First... -- China Agritech, Inc. (NasdaqGM: CAGC) ("China Agritech", or the "Company"), a leading national organic fertilizer manufacturer and distributor in China, today announced the signing and closing of a private placement with Carlyle Asia Growth Partners, the growth capital arm of The Carlyle Group, of 1,392,768 shares of China Agritech common stock and warrants to purchase up to an additional 928,514 shares of China Agritech common stock for aggregate gross proceeds of $15 million. As a result of the transaction, The Carlyle Group, through its affiliates holds approximately 16.5% of the issued and outstanding China Agritech common stock. In the event that the Company does not meet a net income target of $11.5 million for fiscal year 2009, The Carlyle Group affiliates will be issued additional shares of common stock and the initial warrant exercise price of $10.77 per share will be reduced, thereby resulting in additional warrant shares being issuable upon exercise of the warrants. The proceeds from the private placement will be used for business expansion and working capital purposes.

Verisk Analytics' IPO: The Only Risk Management Game in Town for Property, Casualty Insurance

Bill, excellent analysis. No other way to put it, you cornered all the important facts that an outside investor should be looking for. I think their debt management will be what most investors will focus on, as their core business is undoubtedly strong, and will continue to be so. Is there any sight of any near-term acquisitions on the horizon?

Why I'm Not Shorting Diedrich Coffee

The extreme price valuations of these two stocks are as a result of expected blowout earnings for the next two quarters. Can you possibly imagine what may happen to your shares the day these companies don't meet their own revenue expectations? I'd rather take a volatility options spread on the earnings call. We should definitely see some movement, one way or the other.

Electronic Game Card Enters the Chinese Lottery Market

They barely mentioned on their conference in Miami about moving to NASDAQ under the symbol CIRQ. I am surprised they did not highlight this, or discuss their CIRQ brand plans in more detail. I would like to hear more about it...

Long EGMI

Why Everyone Is Wrong About the Inflation/Deflation Debate

It may be wise to not just focus on the domestic problems and solutions. This battle to maintain economic growth and stability, turned from a game of poker (every country for himself), to a world wide team game (everyone working together). The reality of it is that the Fed realizes how much other countries depend on our economy (at this point in time, may not be so in the future), that they are going to wait this through. (no action)

I agree with many of the posters that other countries are doing worse than the US, and yet other countries like China, are forced to manipulate their currencies in order to maintain a balance of trade. This is artificially (indirectly) adjusting our inflation problem without the Fed having to raise interest rates (at least for a while longer).

It took Japan over a decade to slowly creep out of their banking crisis (have they ever fully recovered yet?). The Fed decided to take a soft landing approach, and in doing so, they may have prolonged this "recession" for years to come (most likely resulting in stagflation).

My opinion, foreign trade policy could make a serious impact on our economy's future. There is a lot of tension/pressure on these manipulated currencies, which may indirectly reposition the US in the circle of global trade (hopefully from net buyers, to net sellers). (One can dream anyway!...)

Are High Dividends Sustainable?

If your concern is debt, look into TICC. They are buying back shares, hold 0 debt, and cash levels have doubled since Dec 31, 2008.
Divi? 11.9%

Out of (Natural) Gas

If you are long UNG, sell OTM calls and collect on a little premium to reduce your cost.

Vietnam's the New China

From what I understand, Vietnam is now one of the cheapest manufacturing countries in Asia at the moment, and many corporations are building there for lower costs (like they once did in China). I'm intrigued to know more about the steps the government is taking to allow foreign investment flow. Ultimately, an open door policy is really what will drive growth here. If you have publications or news sources that identify these changes, please let us know!

Thanks!