Robert D.'s Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/280059/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/171745-googles-post-earnings-trading-don-t-look-for-consistency?source=feed#comment-748703 748703
1. Why/how did you choose the 570/580 call spread specifically? Why not others OTM or closer ITM?
2. What percentage of your portfolio would you allocate to a trade like this? Given the amount of time (years of research apparently), I'm assuming you must have taken a very large position?
3. What are your plans for the next earnings releases (pre and post the release)?

Thanks! ]]> Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:55:08 -0500
1. Why/how did you choose the 570/580 call spread specifically? Why not others OTM or closer ITM?
2. What percentage of your portfolio would you allocate to a trade like this? Given the amount of time (years of research apparently), I'm assuming you must have taken a very large position?
3. What are your plans for the next earnings releases (pre and post the release)?

Thanks! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166598-why-i-m-bullish-on-graco?source=feed#comment-748683 748683 Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:44:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/171750-buy-bronco-drilling-on-continental-resources-rig-expansion-plan?source=feed#comment-748560 748560
i'm also a little confused on the numbers relating to these "possible future contracts" that they might be expecting. Any idea how large? ]]> Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:34:24 -0500
i'm also a little confused on the numbers relating to these "possible future contracts" that they might be expecting. Any idea how large? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166233-electronic-game-card-enters-the-chinese-lottery-market?source=feed#comment-747938 747938 Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:17:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/170826-hidden-clues-yield-opportunities-in-amcon-and-hong-kong-highpower-technology?source=feed#comment-747910 747910
As far as DIT, I've also traded this one for a while, and I see this going much higher in 2010 ($125-$150). They are a big "turnaround" story. They are currently listed as a small cap, but this will change, and big money will flow pushing this even higher.]]> Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:03:19 -0500
As far as DIT, I've also traded this one for a while, and I see this going much higher in 2010 ($125-$150). They are a big "turnaround" story. They are currently listed as a small cap, but this will change, and big money will flow pushing this even higher.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/29185-aerogrow-due-for-some-pruning-vertical-branding-waiting-to-fly?source=feed#comment-746953 746953 Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:02:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/360252-the-geoteam/28418-china-growth-development-otcbb-cgdi-a-new-geospecial?source=feed#comment-746296 746296
My one question which I was a bit unclear about in the 10k was in regards to the ownership structure. Can you provide more detail on this? Thanks!]]> Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:32:03 -0500
My one question which I was a bit unclear about in the 10k was in regards to the ownership structure. Can you provide more detail on this? Thanks!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/360252-the-geoteam/24872-china-agritech-a-risk-reward-opportunity?source=feed#comment-722587 722587
From their website:

BEIJING, Oct. 20 /PRNewswire-Asia-First... -- China Agritech, Inc. (NasdaqGM: CAGC) ("China Agritech", or the "Company"), a leading national organic fertilizer manufacturer and distributor in China, today announced the signing and closing of a private placement with Carlyle Asia Growth Partners, the growth capital arm of The Carlyle Group, of 1,392,768 shares of China Agritech common stock and warrants to purchase up to an additional 928,514 shares of China Agritech common stock for aggregate gross proceeds of $15 million. As a result of the transaction, The Carlyle Group, through its affiliates holds approximately 16.5% of the issued and outstanding China Agritech common stock. In the event that the Company does not meet a net income target of $11.5 million for fiscal year 2009, The Carlyle Group affiliates will be issued additional shares of common stock and the initial warrant exercise price of $10.77 per share will be reduced, thereby resulting in additional warrant shares being issuable upon exercise of the warrants. The proceeds from the private placement will be used for business expansion and working capital purposes.]]> Tue, 20 Oct 2009 16:44:14 -0400
From their website:

BEIJING, Oct. 20 /PRNewswire-Asia-First... -- China Agritech, Inc. (NasdaqGM: CAGC) ("China Agritech", or the "Company"), a leading national organic fertilizer manufacturer and distributor in China, today announced the signing and closing of a private placement with Carlyle Asia Growth Partners, the growth capital arm of The Carlyle Group, of 1,392,768 shares of China Agritech common stock and warrants to purchase up to an additional 928,514 shares of China Agritech common stock for aggregate gross proceeds of $15 million. As a result of the transaction, The Carlyle Group, through its affiliates holds approximately 16.5% of the issued and outstanding China Agritech common stock. In the event that the Company does not meet a net income target of $11.5 million for fiscal year 2009, The Carlyle Group affiliates will be issued additional shares of common stock and the initial warrant exercise price of $10.77 per share will be reduced, thereby resulting in additional warrant shares being issuable upon exercise of the warrants. The proceeds from the private placement will be used for business expansion and working capital purposes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167209-verisk-analytics-ipo-the-only-risk-management-game-in-town-for-property-casualty-insurance?source=feed#comment-720764 720764 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:55:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/167178-why-i-m-not-shorting-diedrich-coffee?source=feed#comment-720737 720737 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:33:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/166233-electronic-game-card-enters-the-chinese-lottery-market?source=feed#comment-720609 720609
Long EGMI]]> Mon, 19 Oct 2009 11:47:38 -0400
Long EGMI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166661-why-everyone-is-wrong-about-the-inflation-deflation-debate?source=feed#comment-717475 717475
I agree with many of the posters that other countries are doing worse than the US, and yet other countries like China, are forced to manipulate their currencies in order to maintain a balance of trade. This is artificially (indirectly) adjusting our inflation problem without the Fed having to raise interest rates (at least for a while longer).

It took Japan over a decade to slowly creep out of their banking crisis (have they ever fully recovered yet?). The Fed decided to take a soft landing approach, and in doing so, they may have prolonged this "recession" for years to come (most likely resulting in stagflation).

My opinion, foreign trade policy could make a serious impact on our economy's future. There is a lot of tension/pressure on these manipulated currencies, which may indirectly reposition the US in the circle of global trade (hopefully from net buyers, to net sellers). (One can dream anyway!...)]]> Fri, 16 Oct 2009 09:48:12 -0400
I agree with many of the posters that other countries are doing worse than the US, and yet other countries like China, are forced to manipulate their currencies in order to maintain a balance of trade. This is artificially (indirectly) adjusting our inflation problem without the Fed having to raise interest rates (at least for a while longer).

It took Japan over a decade to slowly creep out of their banking crisis (have they ever fully recovered yet?). The Fed decided to take a soft landing approach, and in doing so, they may have prolonged this "recession" for years to come (most likely resulting in stagflation).

My opinion, foreign trade policy could make a serious impact on our economy's future. There is a lot of tension/pressure on these manipulated currencies, which may indirectly reposition the US in the circle of global trade (hopefully from net buyers, to net sellers). (One can dream anyway!...)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164680-are-high-dividends-sustainable?source=feed#comment-706747 706747 Divi? 11.9% ]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 09:36:06 -0400 Divi? 11.9% ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164571-out-of-natural-gas?source=feed#comment-705545 705545 Tue, 06 Oct 2009 14:27:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/114885-don-dion/27710-vietnam-s-the-new-china?source=feed#comment-703570 703570
Thanks! ]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 09:49:29 -0400
Thanks! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164680-are-high-dividends-sustainable?source=feed#comment-703553 703553 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 09:38:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164830-options-trader-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-703538 703538
Thanks! ]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 09:30:25 -0400
Thanks! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/462649-rick-pearson/28849-lithium-ion-battery-plays-that-are-easier-than-123?source=feed#comment-694278 694278 Mon, 28 Sep 2009 14:48:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145039-developments-and-financing-at-advanced-battery-technologies?source=feed#comment-690734 690734
As a word of caution, I'd also like to point out that in their coming quarters, ABAT will be also hit by higher taxes, as their "start-up" grace period is slowly passing.]]> Fri, 25 Sep 2009 10:39:30 -0400
As a word of caution, I'd also like to point out that in their coming quarters, ABAT will be also hit by higher taxes, as their "start-up" grace period is slowly passing.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163246-better-lithium-ion-battery-plays-than-a123-systems?source=feed#comment-689794 689794
www.everyl.com/index.p...]]> Thu, 24 Sep 2009 15:07:01 -0400
www.everyl.com/index.p...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98278-the-professor-of-commodities-interview-with-james-doran-part-ii?source=feed#comment-295421 295421 Fri, 31 Oct 2008 16:47:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99675-alternative-energy-storage-and-blood-in-the-streets?source=feed#comment-292359 292359
What are the environmental pros and cons from a legislative point of view in the use of lead-acid vs. Li-ion? (How much safer (environmentally) would the widespread use of Li-ion vs lead batteries be?)]]> Tue, 28 Oct 2008 10:09:09 -0400
What are the environmental pros and cons from a legislative point of view in the use of lead-acid vs. Li-ion? (How much safer (environmentally) would the widespread use of Li-ion vs lead batteries be?)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99675-alternative-energy-storage-and-blood-in-the-streets?source=feed#comment-287907 287907
I am taking a deeper look into A123's S-1, and noticed the following:

"We have had negative cash flow before financing activities of $17.0 million for 2005, $29.1 million for 2006, $56.1 million for 2007 and $13.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2008. We anticipate that we will continue to have negative cash flow for the foreseeable future as we continue to make significant future capital expenditures to expand our manufacturing capacity and incur increased research and development, sales and marketing, and general and administrative expenses."

Assuming expenses remain constant (even though they plan on spending heavily on R&D, and rightly so), my main concern is that sales will not catch up to the increase in R&D, most likely pushing them to a secondary offering, diluting shares.

Unfortunately I am not too familiar with their products, demand, competition, costs, etc... But my main question is, do you foresee sales to make up for the increase in R&D, and most importantly based on what quantifiable data?

Nonetheless, it looks like the market hype will push the stock price higher at least in the short-term. But I'd be concerned as a long-term investor. ]]> Wed, 22 Oct 2008 12:53:47 -0400
I am taking a deeper look into A123's S-1, and noticed the following:

"We have had negative cash flow before financing activities of $17.0 million for 2005, $29.1 million for 2006, $56.1 million for 2007 and $13.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2008. We anticipate that we will continue to have negative cash flow for the foreseeable future as we continue to make significant future capital expenditures to expand our manufacturing capacity and incur increased research and development, sales and marketing, and general and administrative expenses."

Assuming expenses remain constant (even though they plan on spending heavily on R&D, and rightly so), my main concern is that sales will not catch up to the increase in R&D, most likely pushing them to a secondary offering, diluting shares.

Unfortunately I am not too familiar with their products, demand, competition, costs, etc... But my main question is, do you foresee sales to make up for the increase in R&D, and most importantly based on what quantifiable data?

Nonetheless, it looks like the market hype will push the stock price higher at least in the short-term. But I'd be concerned as a long-term investor. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90043-are-ipos-heating-up-a123-files?source=feed#comment-287885 287885 ]]> Wed, 22 Oct 2008 12:32:46 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100552-a-sunny-outlook-for-emcore-barron-s?source=feed#comment-286503 286503
"THE ECONOMICS OF CPV versus thin-film go like this: CPV semiconductor cells are roughly 20 times more expensive than those used in thin-film technology -- and more difficult to make -- but require just one-one thousandth of the amount of material needed by thin-film. Using CPV technology, a solar park would need one acre of land to generate a megawatt of power; using thin-film technology, it would need 15 times the land area, CEO Hou says. That makes for lower installation, maintenance and real-estate costs"

It will be difficult to gain acceptance at those prices.]]> Mon, 20 Oct 2008 14:07:04 -0400
"THE ECONOMICS OF CPV versus thin-film go like this: CPV semiconductor cells are roughly 20 times more expensive than those used in thin-film technology -- and more difficult to make -- but require just one-one thousandth of the amount of material needed by thin-film. Using CPV technology, a solar park would need one acre of land to generate a megawatt of power; using thin-film technology, it would need 15 times the land area, CEO Hou says. That makes for lower installation, maintenance and real-estate costs"

It will be difficult to gain acceptance at those prices.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99213-new-technology-makes-natural-gas-a-viable-replacement-for-oil?source=feed#comment-283582 283582
Companies will only invest in "new energy sources" if it makes sense = they need to make a long-term profit. As soon as NG prices drop lower you will find a lot of E&P companies decreasing their funding drastically. If oil drops any lower, we will go back to thinking "we have plenty of oil, because prices are low."

We have to plan and allocate resources to R&D for these new technologies while oil is still cheap (yes, $80 is cheap).

My one concern for NG, is how safe is it to transport? ]]> Thu, 16 Oct 2008 09:37:40 -0400
Companies will only invest in "new energy sources" if it makes sense = they need to make a long-term profit. As soon as NG prices drop lower you will find a lot of E&P companies decreasing their funding drastically. If oil drops any lower, we will go back to thinking "we have plenty of oil, because prices are low."

We have to plan and allocate resources to R&D for these new technologies while oil is still cheap (yes, $80 is cheap).

My one concern for NG, is how safe is it to transport? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100013-trina-solar-looks-good-though-market-yawns?source=feed#comment-283556 283556 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...)

California (and other states in the south west) have access to much more sun power and wind power (and even geothermal), than the rest of the United States. From the looks of the groups opposing the Energy Initiative, the current financial crisis (very difficult to borrow money), and the decline in oil prices (we will never think long-term, always "what's cheaper"), i'd say the odds this initiative gets passed are less than 5%.

However, even if it does get passed, it is not something that will spread nation wide (at least with current technology available).

]]> Thu, 16 Oct 2008 09:05:41 -0400 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...)

California (and other states in the south west) have access to much more sun power and wind power (and even geothermal), than the rest of the United States. From the looks of the groups opposing the Energy Initiative, the current financial crisis (very difficult to borrow money), and the decline in oil prices (we will never think long-term, always "what's cheaper"), i'd say the odds this initiative gets passed are less than 5%.

However, even if it does get passed, it is not something that will spread nation wide (at least with current technology available).

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100013-trina-solar-looks-good-though-market-yawns?source=feed#comment-283211 283211
Even if a company is outperforming their sector, they will feel the pinch of a market drop, as money managers look to decrease their exposure due to a possible (and real) global slowdown.

Lastly, oil plays a part in the game, as alternative energy makes sense only if oil is high enough to push investments into alternative sources of energy. While the "green" factor plays as well, unfortunately, the real "green" factor is money... which source is cheaper?

Many people are waiting for 3Q and 4Q results, and we may have to wait to see how these results will change forecasts/expectations... The real reason to remain bullish on the sector is the global demand for this technology, specifically solar and wind. Both upcoming presidents are also currently bullish on alternative energy, so we could see a further push up after elections. ]]> Wed, 15 Oct 2008 16:40:21 -0400
Even if a company is outperforming their sector, they will feel the pinch of a market drop, as money managers look to decrease their exposure due to a possible (and real) global slowdown.

Lastly, oil plays a part in the game, as alternative energy makes sense only if oil is high enough to push investments into alternative sources of energy. While the "green" factor plays as well, unfortunately, the real "green" factor is money... which source is cheaper?

Many people are waiting for 3Q and 4Q results, and we may have to wait to see how these results will change forecasts/expectations... The real reason to remain bullish on the sector is the global demand for this technology, specifically solar and wind. Both upcoming presidents are also currently bullish on alternative energy, so we could see a further push up after elections. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99955-china-wind-power-for-1-3b-people?source=feed#comment-283103 283103 Wed, 15 Oct 2008 13:56:16 -0400