aarc

Dryships Spoils the Party

Very nice article. For me at least.

Still the bad boy DRYS was able to whip around at phenomenal rate than most dryshippers. I bought and sold it twice already at 2x to 5x profits selling half the positions and holding another half for long-term hold. DRYS going BK does'nt matter to me anymore. If it learns a lesson or two and become a less bad boy or a saint, so much the better.

Remember Buffett's saying the bad boys can become saints while the saints can become bad boys? More likely not all of them. Still, one success can be worth more than ten failures. That is just how the math goes at these extremely depressed stock prices and phenominal volatility. Once the turn-around happens, expect 10x to 20x rallies off their bottoms in a very short period of time for the shippers. Those that will survive, anyway, assuming some of them will become casualties.

Consolidation on the weekly charts say almost all of them will see lower lows.

China's Shanghai and Szenshen indexes have almost completed their impressive impulsive rally since Oct 2008. They may be able to extend the rally a bit but not much is expected - then they will have to go through the usual corrective or pullback process. More likely, in synch with the US and European sell-offs.

This expected pullback for China and/or the next sell-off by the US and Europe will put considerable pressures on the shippers they can go down in a meltdown mode so be very careful buying the next run down.