SmartInvestor8

This Recession Will Be Anything but Deep

I tend to be more pessimist considering that i) How many times have we seen 3 out of 5 of the biggest investment banks and the biggest insurance in US fail or falter together. ii) The derivatives mess has been estimated at 2-3 Trillion dollars (making the 700 billion looks small). Personally, the bailout may not be sufficient and only time can tell. Also S&P 500 has only fallen 40% since Oct 2007, this is still short of the 50% drop in the Dot Com bubble and I am sure that the bubble today is bigger and more widespread than 2001.

Baltic Dry Shipping Index: If It Really Is a Proxy for the Economy, We're in Trouble

Contrary to previous comment, I think you are overall correct. Cargo Ships and incidentally offshore oil rigs are ordered at an insane rate for the last 2 years, creating a bubble and oversupply. Orders for steel and other commodities have been hit by a double whammy, slowdown in US and Europe due to the financial crisis and a drop in demand from China after the Olympics.