Former "C" level corporate executive (public and private companies) with both domestic and international operating experience. Current and former board member of privately held firms.
My portfolio is comprised of three segments. One segment is actively invested, primarily in tax free bonds by a national wealth management firm. A second segment is invested in mutual funds through IRA's and 401k plans. The third segment is comprised of dividend paying stocks I actively manage. My holding period tends to be more than one year and I own several stocks I've held for decades.
I look for opportunity by studying the marketplace in which a firm competes, its management, its competitors, and the macro trends (government regulation, demographics, customer perceptions, and product life cycles) impacting the business. I look first to sound financial management then try to assess if management's strategy is appropriate given the macro trends.
I'm a 24 year-old who has been interested in investing for the past 3 years or so
As of 5/29/16, I own:
Ritchie Bros (used equipment auctioneer, awesome new management, impenetrable moat)
Ametek (defensive industrial + awesome manager; huge R&D/product development advantage)
KMG Chemical (Intel and STMicro's captive chip cleaning company, check out EBITDA growth for last 8 quarters; also impenetrable moat)
SunRun Inc (residential solar installer - DCF exercise. currently trading below the NPV of cash flows of its installed base, even assuming 0% renewals [analysts estimate that a reasonable renewal rate would be ~90%, I think, but it's stil priced below NPV even if you use 0% renewal rate..the zero renewal rate assumption, plus purchasing for less than NPV of cash flows, gives a nice MoS]. they're growing quickly, and the recent extension of solar/wind energy credits is a huge boon). So, trading for less than NPV of contracted cash flows, and you get the development company (e.g., growth) for free - the development company generates like $50m in NPV per quarter or something, so your intrinsic value is growing, too.
Resolute Forest Products - Basically an asset-based valuation; check out Chou Associates recent letter for breakdown. Additionally, RFP has raised prices on both it's pulp and newsprint by a huge % YTD'16, and that is all straight to the bottom line. They also have exposure to wood products for single family home construction in NE USA, and are building a tissue plant that i believe is going to supply tissue for Amazon's new private label initiatives. Only business that i don't know what to make of is uncoated/coated papers. But, the other 4 - wood products, newsprint, pulp, and tissue, all look like theyre ready to rumble.
LEE Enterprises - Buffett owns convertibles on this (I think, i might be wrong - Berkshire does own some stock, though, interestingly, and we know buffet loves tiny local newspapers, which is LEEs thing) - after they finish burning their NOLs, acquisition target. Best-managed newspaper company like ever - their margins are insane. Margins stable, revenue declining, so EBITDA declining. But they're retiring debt, and lowering interest payments, faster than ebitda declines. So, unlevered FCF is declining a couple percent per year, but levered FCF is actually increasing. Currently trades at 4.5x ebitda. Stock at $2. Should retire $1.20 in debt over NTM. don't think multiple can compress much more - assuming no change to the multiple, and $1.20 in debt retirement in NTM, >50% upside in 1 yr just from converting debt to equity.
Innoviva - Owned by GSK and Baupost. Basically, royalties from GSK's BREO/Anoro COPD/asthma medicine. Potential to generate $100s of millions in royalty revenue a few years out, and super low cost structure - implies hundreds of millions in FCF.
Omegaflex - $350 mkt cap, $16m in reported NI for 2015. They are 1 of 2 manufacturers of csst, which is flexible steel hosing that connects gas utility lines to homes - levered to single family home construction. NI depressed by legal expenses arising from product liability court cases - all of the cases against them, they've won (6 in a row). in fact, Pennsylvania supreme court changed product liability law just for OFLX. An Ohio judge threw out a case, and told the lawyer he was not allowed to correct the lawsuit and refile. Total claim exposure has decreased 40% in last 4 quarters, but legal expenses haven't followed yet. Eventualy, legal expense will be gone, adding $3.5m to NI. Additionally, growing revenue by high single digits per year, and GM is like 90% - contribution from sales to after-tax NI is like 55%+. So, grow sales by $8m, implies NI growth of $4-5m. 2015 NI of $16m, plus legal costs (should go away) gets us to ~$19m after tax NI. Then, if 2016 sales grow by $8m, which is the same as 2015 growth, we get another 4-5m in NI by end of 2016. Gets us to $23m in ttm NI at YE 2016. If sales grow by $8m in 2017, and NI by 4-5m, looking at $27-28m in NI in 2017. On a 20x forward multiple, that's a $560m market cap, or 60% upside, and growing.
SunEdison SemiConductor - one of 4 major wafer producers in the world. 2 of the other 3 have 30% MS each, and SEMI and one other each have 10-15%. OVercapacity meant declining prices until 2015.2015 saw cap utilization breach 85% or something, which means prices shouldve gone up; but, their major competitors are Japanese, and the yen devalued significantly in 2015. This brought further pricing pressure. However, no new capacity has been added for a long time, wafer demand has continued to increase (IoT, datacenter, cloud, etc), so supply/demand dynamics are good. Also, japanese yen has appreciated considerably in 2016, which coupled with tight supply conditions, means massive price increases coming. On top of all of this, SEMI and Siliton (the other 15% MS player) are about to merge, and since they do the exact same thing, sell to the exact same customers, etc., there should be HUGE cost savings from reduced backoffice, reduced selling expense, and reduced R&D - the two companies will basically be able to cut OpEx in half after merging.
NIHD - owned by Aurelius and Capital World, two BK investors who own >50% of the company. They have $650 in debt, and $650 in cash (some of it restricted). They have $1b worth of spectrum licenses, per their fresh start accounting, and at least $700m worth of depreciated network infrastructure. In May 2016, the largest shareholders registered their 50% stake for sale, and they also updated the CEO separation agreement - he is set to leave by Nov 2016, which I think means a sale is coming prior to that. Who would want to buy the company? Any telecom in Brazil that needs spectrum.
Also own: BOFI, CSW Industrials, Fenix Parts, Gamestop, KLX Inc, OZM, S&W Seed, Schwab, and Wells Fargo
I've spent considerable time working for a registered independent advisor, doing work such as structuring client accounts, researching stocks/bonds, and performing due diligence on external managers. My career shifted when I took a role at a major investment bank, where I've supported the front office in mortgage-backed securities and derivatives. I now work in an oversight and risk capacity, identifying areas of risk and control weakness when it comes to regulatory compliance. As for trading style, I lean towards small/mid-cap companies, as I believe they have the potential for greater risk-adjusted returns. I'm firmly contrarian, and look to buy out-of-favor equities that have an opportunity to revalue upwards in the medium term.
Port Wren Capital, LLC specializes in uncovering undervalued companies with strong long-term potential for people who want to maximize their investment profits. We invest in our own ideas. We offer value research reports via a subscription service.
Senior Portfolio Manager and individual investor who started in high school and has been at it ever since. I have an MBA and have earned the right to use the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. I have worked in the business for over 15 years. My specialties include fixed income closed-end funds for generating income during retirement, micro and small-cap value investing, and macro analysis.
JGR Capital Partners is an international equity research and investment advisory firm focusing on public companies under $2 billion in market capitalization. We are headquartered in New York City, with affiliate offices in Los Angeles, Shanghai, and São Paulo. Our team of experienced analysts form investment theses based on company and sector expertise, with a strict focus on fundamentals and valuation.
I am the CEO and Portfolio Manager at Kamadhenu Capital. We offer both active and passive investment products. In our active strategy we focus on GARP, Special situations, Country/Sector ETFs and High Yield . In our passive offering we customize globally diversified low cost index ETF portfolio to meet client's financial goals. Prior to starting Kamadhenu Capital , I had a long career in Information Technology. Graduated with an MBA from University of Wisconsin-Madison (Applied security Analysis Program). Now on my way to CFA charter.
I am a fixed income a.k.a. bond analyst residing in the bayous of Louisiana. Have you ever met a cajun who is good at math? At my day job I am focused on the corporate, municipal, mortgage, and treasury markets.
I am looking for stock investments for my personal portfolio here at SA. I particularly like dividend growth companies and small cap growth companies that are trading at a reasonable price.
I want to share my passion for finance, investments, and the markets with anyone who cares to read! Join me on the hunt for alpha by clicking that follow button. I would be grateful to have you as a reader!
Turtle Street Capital is an independent investment think tank. The goal is to generate actionable and well researched investment ideas. The analysis process is founded on understanding the business first, asking tough questions, and stress testing market expectations, management forecasts along with our own assumptions. So, the ideas published here should be news before it is simply that.
I’m always on the lookout for new ideas and enjoy connecting with those in the Seeking Alpha community.
So please visit turtlestreetcapital.com/welcome, connect via Twitter @TurtleStCapital or send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
I've been contributing to SA since 2011, with a break to join the PRO editorial team from 2013-2015. I got my Series 7 and 63 back in 2000, and watched the dot-com bubble peak and then burst in real time at a small, tech-focused retail brokerage in NYC.
Finance professional with extensive experience analyzing companies. I have an innate passion for finance and investing. While most popular stock prognosticators tell investors what they want to hear, I try to inform investors about what they need to know to make an informed decision.
Disclaimer: Articles and/or comments represent the opinion of the author, who is not a licensed financial advisor. Articles are intended for informational and educational purposes only, and should not be construed as investment advice to any particular individual. Readers should perform their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Dan Rayburn is Executive Vice President for StreamingMedia.com (http://www.streamingmedia.com/) and is recognized by many as the voice for the streaming and online video industry. He is also a Principal Analyst with Frost & Sullivan, working in their Digital Media group. He is a sought after speaker, writer, publisher, and consultant, and his work has been featured in print and online by nearly every major media outlet over the past 14 years. He co-founded one of the industry's first streaming media webcasting production companies successfully acquired by Digital Island for $70M. He has his own line of books for Focal Press entitled "The Dan Rayburn Hands On Guide" Series, with eight titles available in print. Regularly consulted by the media, he has been featured in hundreds of print and online articles and is a sought after expert in patent cases involving IP-based video. He is a regular analyst to the investment community via the Gerson Lehrman Group and his Business of Video (http://www.BusinessOfVideo.com/) blog is one of the most widely read sites for analysts, venture capitalists, and financial money managers who cover companies in the online video sector.
Visit Dan Rayburn (http://blog.streamingmedia.com/)'s site.
My investments are based on fundamental, bottom up research often but not always in beaten down, under appreciated sectors, industries or geographies. I invest in companies that I believe exhibit excellent value, deep value, and/or attractively priced growth characteristics using a thorough and disciplined research process.
The two investment strategies that I manage are long only, long term, and invest in all cap sizes, in all regions.
As an entrepreneur for 20 years and three time recipient of the Inc 500 award, I hope that my experience running companies gives me an insightful edge in evaluating company managements and future company cash flows.
Steven H. Goldman is a commercial litigation lawyer and senior partner in the Toronto law firm of Goldman Hine LLP. He is a former member of the board of directors of Tribute Pharmaceuticals Inc., a Canadian public pharmaceutical company which recently merged with Pozen Pharmaceuticals on February 5, 2016, and is now known as Aralez Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ARLZ). He is currently on the board of directors of both Select Sands Corp. (TSX.V: SNS.V) as well as Comstock Metals Ltd. (TSX.V: CSL.V) which both trade on the TSX Venture exchange.
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General : Aspiring Equity Analyst with 7 years of professional and personal investment experience. Primary focus is Value and Growth both domestic and abroad (Europe and Latin America)
Professional Experience: Hedge Fund Assurance and Valuation Services ( AUM 100M - 10B). Exposure to almost every investment strategy and product on the market. Strategies ranged from typical Long/Short Equity & Structured Products such as MBS and CDOs, all the way to reinsurance funds trading catastrophe linked bonds.
Licenses: CPA (NJ) Certified Public Accountant
CFA Candidate - Level 1 June 2017
Very proud Rutgers Graduate- New Brunswick Campus - GO Scarlet Knights ! -
Major: Bachelor's of Accounting
SevenSeas Investment Research was created to provide investors with honest, deeply considered, detailed, passionately conducted, straight forward, value focused, fundamental investment research on a variety of asset classes and market topics.
I use a combination of traditional value focused fundamental research and a proprietary method of stock selection that can be adjusted to meet a dynamic mixture of different risk tolerances, and various other investor criteria to construct concentrated and unique portfolios to any given individual's investment needs.
My deep knowledge of Alternative Investments and Accounting (both GAAP & IFRS), as well as my exposure to dozens of successful hedge fund portfolios and complex investment securities, provided me with a unique perspective few obtain of a side of the market unseen by the retail investor. I wish to share my passion and knowledge for the markets that has grown to an obsession over the last 7 years with the SA community, to bring value to investors ranging from beginners, all the way to seasoned professionals, and network with the thousands of talented individuals from around the world who come to the platform seeking the same objectives.
My overall mission is to provide readers with valuable research to assist them in making wise investment decisions. All articles are my own personal views, and do not constitute investment advice. **Please be sure to contact your own investment professional when considering purchasing an investment.
SevenSeas will remain dedicated to providing a complete, and consistent level of work and appreciation for the readers. The highest standards of ethics and professionalism will be displayed at all times. I welcome all feedback and can be reached via direct messaging. Best of luck to all, and I hope you enjoy the work.
Investment professional and CFA charterholder. I write on Seeking Alpha as a personal hobby and to elicit feedback on specific ideas and topics, help organize my thinking, and connect with intelligent people.
Retired former Chief Technologist and Chief Highway Engineer for largest employee-owned engineering consulting firm in the US (Fortune 500 firm). Nationally recognized expert in highway and traffic safety. Published author of multiple research reports on transportation engineering topics through the National Academies; adviser to Federal Highway Administration through 6-year term on Congressionally established Research and Technology Coordinating Committee. Work assignments include projects for over 30 state Departments of Transportation. Global work experience includes Canadian provinces, New Zealand, Japan and Qatar governments.
Investment philosophy is value based, with emphasis on income and capital appreciation through risk-based approaches. I am not a trader or speculator. I get ideas from SA and combine them with my independent research.
I work on the crossroads of design, branding, consumer research and product development. Occasionally, I buy shares of companies, whose industry I understand or work in.
However, I take capitalism and its machinations with the necessary spoonful of quality Swedish stone salt.
I write for Seeking Alpha to transfer the investment ideas and concepts cluttered in my head onto (digital) paper. This helps me evaluate future investment ideas (and reiterate current holdings) with much more clarity, while also subjecting them to public scrutiny.
I'm also currently a CFA candidate (testing level II). I passed the level 1 exam in June 2015.
Equanimity is one of the most powerful characteristics to possess in investment management. Opportunities are always available in the market but it is a job that requires extensive research, analysis, objectiveness, and sometimes secondary opinion.
Disclaimer: All articles provided are for entertainment purposes only. Interpret everything as opinion rather than fact and do your own due diligence. These statements are not an offer to buy or sell any security.
Formerly Chief Market Strategist at Capital Ladders Advisory Group LLC. After the sale of certain of CLAG's retail and institutional assets in October 2015, I have commenced my latest venture in the CPG industry which is centered on the development and licensing of consumer and commercial technology. https://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=AAIAAA3lJ9IBNi1rhhFzRWElkJl4MpyNuIiHglQ&trk=nav_responsive_tab_profile
CooLinX Integrated Technologies develops technologies for the beverage and CPG industry. We are presently effecting licensing agreements with multi-national brands and co-developing products aimed for mass market consumption.
A former financial advisor. I manage six family portfolios, a family foundation and a dynasty trust with a tilt toward defensive value-oriented NYSE companies. Holding periods depend mainly on valuation, typically multi-year, some multi-decade. As income and value oriented investors, we generally avoid Nasdaq and AMEX listed companies as well as technology names which I feel are near impossible to handicap. Attempting to identify absolute and relative values through stock screens, the neglected, and non-permanent distressed situations- including blue chips sitting at, or near 52 week lows is my focus. I especially like to handicap blue chips in the cross hairs of a media storm, e.g Halliburton, Carnival, BP SeaWorld etc. * I pay little attention to macroeconomic themes unless they are industry specific. * Low EBITDA/Enterprise multiples as it relates to historical CAGR, and conservative debt to EBITDA coverage is very important. * Following both insiders and investment managers building outsized positions within their overall portfolio is important for establishing confirmation bias. * A substantial and growing dividend policy is important, but there are exceptions. * Wide economic moats through strong brands and market leadership. * Honest and competent management. * I tend to like companies based in Minnesota, and dislike companies in the deep south, especially Florida, all things being equal. Ideally, I attempt to average the 30 year treasury yield across all equity holdings including preferreds. My number of holdings is between 30 and 35 names. Some of my best trades were selling Sun Microsystems and Cisco at the market top for a 1000%+ return. Rogers Sugar, where my dividends have lowered my cost basis to zero. Buying Equinox minerals and Lionore mining as penny stocks, both of which were acquired. Recent investment winners have been AAL, originally bought at $17 Campbell Soup purchased at $33. and Davide Campari ADR at $6 Current asset allocation: 40% NYSE common stocks 10% Nasdaq stocks 5% preferred stocks 25% municipal bonds and corporates 5% Canadian equities 10% cash +/- 5% in either direction.
Core holdings include: Bank New York Mellon, Coca Cola, Carnival, Neogen, Applied Materials, Rogers-Lantic Sugar, Liquor Stores, NA, Cabot Chemical, Du Pont, McGraw Hill, H&R Block, Davide Campari BP Plc, Stanley Black & Decker, Patterson , ATT Inc. American Airlines, Grupo Mexico, Patterson Companies, Wolverine Worldwide, Houghton Mifflin, Liberty Braves, GDX etf, West Marine, Luxottica, CNHI, Sanofi, CHS inc.
Lateral Capital Management, Inc. (“LCMI”) is a long/short credit & equity fund focussed on the infrastructure, mining & resources, oil & gas, renewables and utility sectors primarily in North America.
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