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RogerMexico

RogerMexico
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  • General Mills: Well Positioned In Many Great Sectors, Valuation Elevated [View article]
    Cereal is the company's biggest segment, and the #1 food eaten for breakfast at home. Sure.

    But you forgot to mention that cereal consumption has been in decline now for years as consumers continue to shift their tastes towards lower carb options. Future sales forecasts for cereal are being revised down. Despite that, GIS is currently priced at a relative premium compared to its historical P/E.
    Aug 15, 2014. 05:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix May Not Need Final Trial [View article]
    Hey Joe, curious what you think the downside risk is if BESTFIT reports negative results.
    Aug 8, 2014. 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix And The Celgene Contingency [View instapost]
    This is the rational interpretation. The implication and risk of future dilution would likely be in the context of extremely positive news and a skyrocketing stock price. If TNXP dips on news of the shelf Monday, it might make for nothing other than an excellent entry point. BTD if there is one. Market response to other recent biotechs filing S-3's would also support this strategy even as a short-term trading play before the BESTFIT results.
    Aug 2, 2014. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AcelRx Pharmaceuticals Receives Complete Response Letter from FDA for New Drug Application for Zalviso™ [View article]
    Looks that way. Glad I didn't get greedy and took profits with the run up prior to catalyst. Unclear how low it'll go but probably a good reentry point looms in the future..
    Jul 25, 2014. 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NPS Pharmaceuticals: The Small Bio-Tech You Should Not Be Ignoring With 30% Upside [View article]
    Anyone have an actual literature reference for the open-label data other than press release?
    Jul 21, 2014. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NPS Pharmaceuticals: The Small Bio-Tech You Should Not Be Ignoring With 30% Upside [View article]
    Thanks guys.. I admit that the open-label extension data obviously flew under my radar. On further review of STEPS2, clearly a reasonable sized subset of patients DID manage to get off PS entirely, which I believe is an impressive outcome.
    Jul 21, 2014. 07:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NPS Pharmaceuticals: The Small Bio-Tech You Should Not Be Ignoring With 30% Upside [View article]
    You state: "Gattex increases the patients' freedom by letting them live normal lives, in many cases without the use of an IV. In addition, parenteral support can cost anywhere from $160,000 to over $500,000 per year. Priced at $295,000 per year, Gattex is in a very comparable price range and has much more to offer."

    It is worth noting that this seems a rather charitable interpretation of the data. In the last phase 3 trial, precisely 0 patients were weaned completely off parenteral support (PS). Only about half of subjects in the treatment arm actually managed to go an additional day per week or more off PS, and most of these subjects cut their PS requirement down by 1 day/week. Which is not to say that teduglutide doesn't have benefits, but to suggest that "many" patients may be freed of IV PS entirely strikes me as an over-reading. In light of that, your pricing comparison is apples to oranges. On average, treatment with teduglutide won't replace PS, but will come at an added cost of $295,000, and yield a more limited savings in the expense of PS which would reflect the average PS volume reduction of approximately 34% seen in the trial.
    Jul 21, 2014. 06:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Valero Energy, refiners bounce off early lows [View news story]
    This market is upside down. Good is bad and bad is good. Revised earnings drop over 10%, and the stock is up 1%. Think I'm going to take my money and invest in the horse races..
    Jul 15, 2014. 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying The Dip - The Game Plan [View article]
    No love for $UPL?
    Jul 10, 2014. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: With The SEC Issue Resolved, The Stock Has 50% Potential Return [View article]
    PE ratio? This is a BDC. Aren't you looking at entirely the wrong metric? As other's note, your total return here is very optimistic with respect to stock price relative to current and projected NAV, and the stability of the dividend relative to NII.
    Jul 7, 2014. 07:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind: Do Afrezza Label Woes Overshadow FDA Approval? [View article]
    I agree and am staying long with no plans to go anywhere. Every drug has its issues, as I'm sure Afrezza will too, but at this point and with the current valuation, to me it's only a question of how big the upside is. I certainly don't expect the death of injectable insulin with it, but there is a clearly an untapped market now opening up.
    Jun 30, 2014. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind: Do Afrezza Label Woes Overshadow FDA Approval? [View article]
    Oh no, labels! Oh no, share dilution!

    I'm a practicing pulmonologist. Warning or no, the market for Afrezza remains huge, and yearly pulmonary function testing is a very minor inconvenience compared to multiple shots per day, every day. Everything else is smoke and mirrors.
    Jun 30, 2014. 11:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HollyFrontier -1.7% after Credit Suisse downgrade [View news story]
    Send Credit Suisse my regards for this excellent double whammy entry point.
    Jun 27, 2014. 12:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Bed Bath & Beyond The Next Coach? [View article]
    What does COH have to do with BBBY? Virtually nothing. I have no position in BBBY, one way or the other, and it may well be a value trap (as may be COH), but the comparison does this article a disservice. COH is being affected by fashion trends with competitors (KATE, KORS, Tory) eating their lunch in the US. Not sure what's hitting BBBY's earnings, whether it reflect a general retail market concern, or what have you. But whatever it is, it's not about consumer tastes and fashion trends. Awfully big brush with which to paint this story.
    Jun 26, 2014. 01:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Great Bargain In Today's Fully Valued Market [View article]
    Obviously troubled by the trend since the earnings report. Debt concerns are essentially no different now than they were before, except delinquency rate is improved, and growth is obviously impressive. I'm doubling down long, but curious as to your thoughts on the post-earnings sell-off.
    Jun 11, 2014. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
15 Comments
19 Likes