Your analysis contains two major assumptions which I think are not correct. 1) The cost of producing oil (or any other activity) is not carved in stone. As the world economy weakens, the price of drilling, shipping, wages etc will decrease. 2) Oil producers need cash... just like everyone else. They are not going to turn off the pumps and attempts to curtail production have never stuck. The expensive oil that has been stored will come to market.
Will Oil Stocks Stay This Cheap? [View article]