Thrift Maven's Comments

Case-Shiller Still Predicts Massive 45% Fall from Today’s Values

Sat, 28 Nov 2009 09:16:40 -0500

China and/or Japan need to offer U.S. consumers credit cards with fixed 6%-7% interest rates. Many Americans could then transfer their 18% - 24% card balances to these cards, and eventually pay down their debt. The Chinese/Japanese would fare much better than the paltry sums they are getting for buying U.S. Treasuries and consumers could return to buying their manufactured goods and generate many transportation and sales jobs here.

The great lesson learned after 30 years of Republican decimation of our society (downward spiraling wages, upward spiraling healthcare costs, paralyzed state taxation, unaffordable housing, deregulation of lending and rip-off of Indian tribes - don't forget your long-term memory, voters) is that Black Swans (R) are just as likely as H1N1 flu bugs. This generation of Americans might well become as frugal as the Prussians were.

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

Fri, 23 Oct 2009 08:06:53 -0400

Spot on. So clear, yet grasped by so few. William Pfaff, journalist, wrote a prescient article during the G.H. Bush administration titled
"The Pauperization of the American Workforce." (Still available in his archives.) Here we are.

On Oct 17 07:32 AM LilBob wrote:

> To me this is fear mongering, brought on by a lack of willingness
> to understand what's really going on in the economy. During the Bush
> administration we had an increase in the concentration of capital
> in the hands of the wealthiest Americans, just like we saw in this
> country during the "Robber Baron" age from roughly 1895 to the early
> 1930s. In a capitalist economy, there are two kinds of capital: investor
> capital and consumer capital-we can also refer to these two types
> of capital as supply capital and demand capital. When capital becomes
> too highly concentrated in the hands of investors while working class
> wages stagnate, we end up with a situation where sales decline generally
> while new more aggressive investment schemes are fabricated to create
> the illusion of increasing wealth for the investment class. The only
> solution to this problem is for social phenomenon that increase consumer
> capital-restore the consumer base-thereby making it possible for
> businesses to keep their doors open. The reason we are in a recession
> is because of several years of misperception on the part of the American
> public-people believed that their wealth was increasing and loaded
> up on debt when their actual wealth-as measured in wages and ability
> (from say, job benefits) to access critical services (such as health
> care) was in steep decline.
>
> As long as there is a willingness to accept the reality of our situation,
> and to address the underlying root causes of the predicament, then
> any disaster may be averted.

More Bad News Bears / Banks

Fri, 28 Aug 2009 05:31:29 -0400

So now subprime borrowers are buying banks. Subprimomania
continues. U.S. workers have been pauperized over the past 28 years. Our society can no longer sustain what it did in the past.

7 Cash Rich Stocks Offering Stingy Dividends

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 09:23:22 -0400

Franklin resources returned $1,000,000 for every $1,000 invested
during an 18 year period for the great '80's - '90's bull market. It was the most successful stock of those years. It is far better to let them handle the money than to pass out a few paltry dollars here and there. Put ten or twenty shares in your Roth IRA, reinvest those small dividends, let Franklin do what it does best and you should have a wonderful return in twenty five years.

John Hussman: Fundamental Difficulties Have Deep Roots

Tue, 04 Aug 2009 10:29:08 -0400

Let's not forget Felix Zulauf, Barron's Roundtable, who expected in his yearly prediction, for the Dow to go to about 9,000 and then down to 4,000. His thoughts have been haunting me since January.

How About Sears Holdings as a REIT?

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:18:11 -0400

When Citi raised credit card rates on their former Sears Card to outrageous numbers, many of us closed our accounts.
American business is so corrupt. We have to act like decent citizens, even though we are not treated as such. Preserve cash. Force
deflation. Refuse hype.

Global Markets in Review: Think Rationally Ahead

Wed, 29 Apr 2009 11:08:41 -0400

The largest socialized institution in America is the Military.
A little socialism leavens the whole bread.

Canadian Energy Trusts: The Best Long Term Income and Dollar Hedge?

Fri, 27 Mar 2009 11:57:55 -0400

ETF DHG holds some of these trusts. Good dividend, good discount,
sad history. It may revive handsomely someday. If you close your eyes and like getting paid (something) to wait, take a look at DHG.

Cramer's Stop Trading! Bull Run (3/23/09)

Tue, 24 Mar 2009 10:23:51 -0400

Franklin Resources - symbol BEN - turned a $1,000 investment into $1,000,000 over an 18 year period during the great bull market of the '80's - '90's. And that was before they had gone into China and India. It was the most successful stock at that time period. Putting 5-10 shares in a Roth Ira, reinvesting dividends, not looking at it for the next 20 to 30 years, not worrying, might provide a very interesting lump sum at retirement. "Many a mickle can make a muckle." (Old North Yorkshire saying coined by Joseph Addison during a financially bleak period.)

Markets Soar as President's Aura Fades

Fri, 13 Mar 2009 18:24:09 -0400

Obama will always be a breath of fresh air when we think
of the destructive, anti-intellectual, anti-good government, pro-nonsense Republican years. All we ever heard from the "aren't we wonderful crowd" was..."aren't we wonderful." Sadly, the economy and the markets
worldwide - could not disagree more.

The Bubble of Uncertainty Is About to Burst

Fri, 06 Mar 2009 09:40:02 -0500

It only took Republican politicians and non-governance 28 years to
destroy our economy and society. So bad, in fact, that even Lincoln Club members (stalwart conservatives in Orange County, CA) voted for Obama. Downward spiraling wages for working citizens, unaffordable housing for workers, userous credit rates, "lazy fairy" economics, McMansions being built instead of comfortable, safe housing for the masses, relaxation of health protection policies, lax gun control, lax border control, the rise of "Ineptomania" personified by Rush Limbaugh - the pied piper of the uninformed.

Patience is the third dimension we must learn to live in.

Doug Casey: What to Do in 'The Greater Depression'

Fri, 27 Feb 2009 01:49:03 -0500

And by the way - the upward spiral in oil began TWO WEEKS after
Bush's first inauguration and ended four months before the end of his
second term.

Doug Casey: What to Do in 'The Greater Depression'

Fri, 27 Feb 2009 01:44:51 -0500

This is rediculous. The Republicans dusted off the "Lazy Fairy" when
Reagan came in 28 years ago. Unions were busted, wages spiraled downward for the next 28 years, healthcare was never reigned in and every wronghead decision for the American economy and society was made under the Republican umbrella. Businessmen forgot who bought their widgets as the American workforce was pauperized.

In one of the great books on The Depression (Wm. Shier (?) - wealthy folks in that era were surprised to find that even they could not make money. No one had any money to buy stuff. So the great lesson for everyone is that poverty benefits no one. FDR's policies kept us going
for the past 65 years, but finally they could no longer balance the follies of our Republican handlers.

Doug Casey: What to Do in 'The Greater Depression'

Fri, 27 Feb 2009 01:44:50 -0500

Ford a Likely Survivor of the Auto Industry Crisis

Tue, 17 Feb 2009 11:09:39 -0500

Ford has those wonderful trucks - from 150's to the huge tow trucks - plus police cars and terrific small trucks for businesses and cars for the rental industry. Their styles are picking up. I am seeing more and more of their small trucks in our neighborhood. They are on the right page with alternative energy vehicles.

Years ago, Grandfather ran into Henry Ford while walking in Manhattan. Ford asked him if he would like to put $1,000 into a car manufacturing company he was starting. Coulda, shoulda. Ford is cheap today.

Does Obama's Stimulus Plan Pass the 'Prudent Person' Test?

Sat, 07 Feb 2009 20:29:53 -0500

Dear Poor Dude:

We have been borrowing to live since the 80's. That is why David Stockman got in hot water for questioning Reagonomics.

Sincerely, Poor Dudess

On Feb 07 07:05 PM Poor Dude wrote:

> America has become a subprime borrower. In light of what has happened
> to everybody with real estate, who is going to lend to us? Not being
> a student of world finance, I'm not sure what happens when a country
> that must borrow to live can no longer borrow. But I suspect it's
> not pretty for its citizens. How do we protect ourselves? Buy gold?

Does Obama's Stimulus Plan Pass the 'Prudent Person' Test?

Sat, 07 Feb 2009 20:27:38 -0500

"Allen Sinai's (extremely well researched) Model Fits Obama's Fix" - per Jane Bryant Quinn - Bloomberg site. Anyone who wants to know why Democrats are doing what they are doing, should read this article. It is
an eye opener.

Does Obama's Stimulus Plan Pass the 'Prudent Person' Test?

Sat, 07 Feb 2009 19:32:49 -0500

Obama's plan for stimulus passes the prudent person test as it will save
our municipalities. McCain's doesn't pass, as it will only enrich the already rich....as usual.

What Can We Learn from Buffett's Recent Put Sales?

Thu, 05 Feb 2009 09:21:23 -0500

Expunge the House of Reps. and return it to the Pilfering Republican Political Machine? Our whole nation has already been destroyed.

McCain has obvious neurological degeneration. Fortunately, a few have seen the light. Even Lincoln Club members in Orange County voted
anti-Republican this past November.

Here's hoping the next "Republican Revolution" will be one that crushes
all of the remaining "aren't we wonderful" GOP crowd.

On Feb 02 02:56 PM Jason C. Rines (iThinkBig) wrote:

> What Washington does in the near term would impact the maximum return
> horizen to seven year instead of five in my opinion on WB's investments.
>
>
> I have stated early on that the next Bull market to be 2013 as the
> U.S. goes from Efficient Market back to Save and Invest.
>
> Washington could make the outright wrong Keneysian decisions making
> that forecast to 2015 or a tad longer. Right now his bets are on
> U.S. government where he has direct influence, so a safe position
> for numerous reasons.
>
> Voters will have a revolution at the polls expunging House of Reps
> in 2010 and 2012 which is what they do in our nation historically.
>
>
> The last two global fiscal crisis' spurred World Wars. In the nuclear
> age, that is the biggest risk of all. I have a feeling if it comes
> to that we all will have other things on our minds besides the portfolio.

Real-Estate Veteran Sees a Rare Opportunity to Buy Quality REITs - Barron's

Mon, 02 Feb 2009 03:19:28 -0500

What do you think of TAO?

On Feb 01 09:36 PM Scott F wrote:

> Adding to the chorus of negative commentators, I have to say that
> the set of two closed-end funds they suggest are a joke.
>
> AWP was issued less than two years ago at $20 and is now at $3, but
> they are still charging 1.5% management fee annually to sit on the
> 20% of original capital they haven't lost yet. In other words they
> burned through $40 million dollars of investors' money so they could
> lose $4B in the process. What a great deal. Even though they recently
> cut their dividend by 78%, some suckers are still going to get lured
> by their 12% fictitious return-of-capital-esqu... yield. These guys
> are fools, and so will you be if you buy them, thinking you're getting
> something at a discount.
>
> IGR is slightly less horrible. It has the same rate of loss and nonsensical
> dividend but a less obnoxious excess management fee of 1.2%. It makes
> up for this with the riskiness of leverage.
>
> If you are still compelled to buy any of this crap, maybe on a trading
> basis, perhaps Seligman LaSalle International Real Estate Fund (NYSE:
> seekingalpha.com/symbo...) is a better bet. More reasonable
> management fee, given its size and a better discount. At least in
> its case half of its dividend is actually real, and its smaller size
> might make it more versatile. Same lousy return record, though. The
> only other CEFs that look rational are the Asian ones, RAF and RAP.
> But those are run by RMR Advisors, Inc., as incompetent a bunch of
> jackanapes as I've ever come across.
>

Advantages of Investing in Utility ETFs

Sat, 24 Jan 2009 00:51:13 -0500

I like EOD. Somewhat volatile these days, but check the discount and very good dividend on ETFConnect, It has 65% in Utilities and this leaves some discretion to the manager to chose other good positions such as Copano Energy.

Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund: Diverse, Flexible with Smart Management

Fri, 16 Jan 2009 10:52:48 -0500

Yes, you are missing something. Very often, a stock will have a noticeable increase in price 1-3 weeks before it is to go ex dividend.
It is not necessary to actually capture the dividend to capture a worthwhile blip in stock value - sometimes more than the actual dividend.

On Jan 02 05:38 AM You're Kidding wrote:

> I believe Dividend Capture Rotation is buying the stock, getting
> the dividend, and then selling out in minimal time, hopefully to
> make money quickly on the dividend itself, without the risk of owning
> the stock for very long.
>
> If this is correct, then the strategy is a waste of time, because
> on the ex-dividend date, the exchange lowers the price of the stock
> the exact amount of the dividend, just before the open. After all,
> the company's value has just dropped the amount of the dividend,
> so why should new buyers not pay that much less for the stock?

>
> Perhaps I am missing something here, but I don't think so. It appears
> that companies using this so called strategy, are really trying to
> con new business from naive investors. After all, who doesn't want
> free money? And, of course, it is out there for the easy picking
> somewhere, isn't it?

Alternative Energy Storage for Global Warming Agnostics

Fri, 16 Jan 2009 01:32:58 -0500

Google in: Ice Age Pentagon. Read it. then you will understand
the real problem with "global warming."

This Is What the End of the Line Looks Like

Wed, 17 Dec 2008 10:42:19 -0500

For heaven's sake. Put a cap on credit card interest rates at 6%. The whole nation would get some relief, be able to pay down some debt and begin rebuilding.

GOP policies have destroyed this country. Roosevelt was right. Regulation, regulation, regulation. For the good of the nation. We used to be trusted. Now we aren't. When wil business folk wake up.

Should We Really Bail Out the Big Three Automakers with $73.20 Per Hour Labor?

Wed, 12 Nov 2008 11:41:49 -0500

Just how long do these people have to work under questionable conditions to get to $73.20 per hour? Probably twelve years.

Who do you think is going to buy the crap at Wal-Mart, Circuit City, Mervyns, Best Buy, etc., if they are not paid? If the GOP masters of the universe had not begun the downward spiral in wages in the Reagan years, (and continued them for the past 28 years), our nation would not be in the abyss it is now.

Pep Boys: Insanity Dominates the Share Price

Mon, 27 Oct 2008 14:08:07 -0400

A plan for profits should include an image makeover. They could use solid, well designed signage and painting upgrades The Pep Boys have been around for an awfully long time and other automotive parts places seem to attract people more easily. Perhaps "Pep Boys" isn't a name people relate to well anymore. There is something about 1950's buildings that look depressing. The company should hold a competition among its employees for a new, quality name and/or look.

I have been impressed, lately, with Home Depot's outstanding responsiveness to people who walk in, looking for items. Office depot is also excellent in this regard. Pep Boys should take a page out of their book, for male and female customers.

Global P&E Ratios and Dividend Yields

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 16:18:40 -0400

AOD with 17% interest is full of fine quality European stocks. It is a relatively new ETF and untested, but they have managed to pay excellent rates without resorting to Auction Rate Securities.

The T. Boone Pickens Approach

Tue, 29 Jul 2008 11:10:04 -0400

T. Boone Pickens backed Ronald Reagan for the Presidency.

Ronald Reagan tossed out Jimmy Carter's prophetic and brilliant Energy Independence Plan.

We will spend three trillion dollars on the Iraq Oil War, lose
4000-5000 young Americans, 400,000 Iraqis, create 3,000,000
Iraq refugees. (For the three trillion dollars, our government could
have bought 139,000,000 hybrid automobiles to give to those relinquishing their SUVs and gas guzzling autos. This would have cut automobile gasoline use by 50%.)

The Republican Political Machine is the most destructive force in America.

Auto Industry Business Model Needs a Major Overhaul

Fri, 25 Jul 2008 10:14:44 -0400

The three trillion spent on the Iraq War could have purchased
139,000,000 hybrid automobiles and cut automobile gasoline use in half. Not to mention air pollution.

One of the FDR braintrust people suggested that in order to bring about a major good change in America, one had to bribe 51% of the people. This could easily be done in the name of economic sanity. It might even appeal to Americans. Subsidies and tax breaks for people buying hybrids, etc. Plus - money saved on gasoline would flow into all local economies and lift all boats: local businesses and local employment, municipalities and states.

"Rubinomics" Is Back

Fri, 13 Jun 2008 10:39:50 -0400

in Street folks.