fjpenney

Why You Need to Be Careful With Leveraged ETFs

This issue regarding leveraged ETF's tracking error has been written about ad nauseum lately. It would be refreshing to read something new for a change.

Global Stock Markets: Another Fake Rally?

Investor88: Have you heard the saying about forecasting that goes "If one must forecast, forecast often!".

Thankfully, my timer took me out of the market in June and I am sitting in IEF until I get a long signal.

Fred

Stocks: Is the Tide Turning?

Just to nitpick on a minor point, the Canadian index is no longer the Toronto Composite 300. It is the S&P/TSX Composite Index.

FJP

The Risk Premium Puzzle, or Dividend Investing for Math Nerds

I applaud the author for his effort. However, let's remember that overvalued stocks can remain overvalued and undervalued stocks can remain so as well. It is helpful to perform this analysis but as the author points out at the end of the article, knowing the relative valuation of stocks doesn't tell you how to invest short term.

I personally use a timer and that has been very helpful this past year.

FJP

5 Keys to Value Investing Profits

... or you could find/develop a decent market timer and use it like I did to get out of the markets back in June. Of course, this was a once in a lifetime decline (hopefully) but following my timer saved my skin.

Four Commonsense Clues to a Genuine Market Bottom

I'll stick with my own timer as it has served me well.

Yield Curve Steepness Is Not Signaling Economic Recovery

This analysis gives a completely different take on the slope of the yield curve than that presented by Bespoke Investment Group in their Seeking Alpha article two days ago. Their article was not as in depth as this one. Time will tell which analysis proves to be correct but it certainly doesn't feel like the economy is about to improve and the stock markets move upward.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

It's easy to look at the middle of a chart a make commentary about support, resistance and trends. It's much more difficult to provide commentary when you look at the right edge of the chart. This is about as good as it gets when it comes to technical analysis. David definitely has a good handle on what is happening and acknowledges that he doesn't know what is going to happen next. I appreciate that kind of commentary over that which comes from over-confident analysts.

FJP

Back at the Bottom

I don't plan on going long until there is an upward trend in the markets. Buying stocks just because they are cheap on a relative basis discounts the possibility that they may become even cheaper. As Keynes noted "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.".

I am not a buy-and-hold investor. I use my own timers and they saved my skin this year by advising me to get out of the market mid-June.

FJP

When the Going Gets Tough, the Tough Play Defense

It's not only knowing when to buy, you have to know when to sell. On my blog, I advised getting out of the US market on June 11. I don't profess to have known how deep the sell-off would be. My timer indicated that a downward trend had started but, like all timers, it doesn't forecast the degree of a move in either direction. Until an upward trend develops, my timer won't go long.

This is an extremely difficult market and I suspect the elevated level of volatility will be with us for longer than we prefer.

FJP

A Buy & Hold Forever Dividend Stock Portfolio

Good luck with a strategy that I don't think will work well at all in this environment. As for my own portfolio, I use market timing and it saved me from huge losses this year.
FJP

Husband-Wife Manager Team Favors Low-Cost Indexing Approach

dsboston:

The commercial market timers I have looked at do not provide advise on asset allocation. Rather they provide a timing service that indicates whether you should take a long, neutral or short position.

Jeremy Grantham on 'The Curse of the Value Manager'

Timing isn't easy but getting out simply because the market is expensive or getting in simply because the market is cheap can be a recipe for poor performance. A good timer will keep you in the market until after a peak and keep you out of the market until after a trough.

Husband-Wife Manager Team Favors Low-Cost Indexing Approach

Indexing is fine but many indexers also believe in a buy-and-hold-forever approach. Needless to say, such an approach was devastating for many investors this year. I use my own timer but there are a number of commercial timers available as well.

Sleeping with Short Bond ETFs

How easy it is to say after the fact that switching to short term bond etf's would have outperformed the S&P500. I use my own timing methods and my timer advised getting out of the market in mid-June. I can't say that I knew how bad the downturn was going to be.

Bear in mind that if you suggest overweighting in short bond etf's now, you must also advise when to go back to a normal bond weighting. How do you do that without engaging in timing which you say can't be done (or at least you don't know of anyone who can do it)?