topshelf

Confidence and Trade: Spin vs. Reality

where did you see a complaint? that was information that was not included. do you need a link that tells you that CA raised Sales Tax on April 1 to 8.25% from 7.25%? don't you think this is an important item to factor-in?...try researching a tad

Confidence and Trade: Spin vs. Reality

the only shame, mark anthony, is in your postings and your articles i just scanned. that's some big loss on your PAL tout, unless you bailed before reaching an 80% loss

you used California w/o mentioning that they raised their Sales Tax Increased 13.8% from 7.25% to 8.25% on April 1

=less goods and services, but taxed higher

March was expected to be higher, since many increased purchases prior to the tax increase

The Deceitful Practice of Window Dressing: Why Has the SEC Done Nothing About It?

Mr J S Kim,
What can I say...Superb...needed to be said...I have saved [copy/paste in case it vanishes] this along with the Comments made, as far as I'm concerned this is the best, most important Topic, SAlpaha writing I've read. Recently I have noted the phrase "Singing to the Choir" used, and while its used correctly, I believe the underlying message we all can take away is to try our best to get the "Song" heard by The Public

[[[ the one side-note I'll add, since the Comments already made cover most everything else....consider also the Huge amount of Gains made in the Personal Accounts of those, like in this case Fund/Money Managers, and all who "assist" and enable this to continue ]]]

Kudos

Friday Roundup: Reality Bites Bulls

This is the longest period of time ever that the actual [REAL] PE of the S&P 500 has not been mentioned. Amazing when you consider this Historically. The S&P 500 is the undisputed Benchmark for the US Stock Market. It wasn't that long ago when there was a standard way to quote and state that PE Ratio. Like several other Market, Economic, and Financial items, we have seen changes made in various ways, anywhere from just totally eliminating, M3 an example, or changing the formula for the Calculation.

Bottom Line re: the S&P 500, I don't believe its Allowed for anyone to mention the Real PE, certainly not on TV, like CNBC, and very rarely in an article, though not in any widely read MSMedia in Print. Mentioning a PE of over 100 would be career suicide, and I believe any TV broadcast would be assured that any guest, talking head, would only talk about such things that are within a near match to the "Script" that gets fed to the Average Joes & Janes.

And lets not forget, this PE of over 100 was only made possible with the assistance of the changes in Accounting & Reporting that a quick Law change was given to the Financials for the reporting of Q1/09.

One thing I find noteworthy is the Standard, Historically used Yardstick hasn't been lost. I noticed this when the PE for China, and some other countries, equivalent Benchmark is quoted, the usual, Standard, historic Yardstick is used. Its just set aside, hidden in a corner, when it comes to our S&P 500 and equities in general. I won't even begin on the topic of why using Operating Earnings should at least be included, since the use of Stock Options for Pay & Compensation is such a large part of total Pay & Compensation in this country compared to the rest of the world.

There should be one Measure, one Yardstick, and it should be the one we always used.

BYD's Electric Car Ready for U.S. Debut a Year Early

BYD Company gets added to the Hang Seng, Monday Sep 7. You may want to DD all you can and decide before Friday the 4th. I own BYDDF, have for a good year, and love this company. Can't imagine not owning it. re: the price of the Auto in the US, if that $40K stands, then it sounds like a 100% tariff. I hope Oregon make a deal with BYD Co.---they've been trying, as is Brazil. Paste:
The compiler of Hong Kong's stock indexes said Friday it will make no changes to the constituents of the blue-chip Hang Seng Index but added Chinese battery and electric car maker BYD Co. [s:hk:1211] to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, or H-share index, lifting the number of constituents in the share tracker to 44. Hang Seng Indexes, the compiler, announced the change as part of its quarterly review and said the addition would take place Sept. 7

On Aug 23 09:23 AM jimp wrote:

> What's a good price range to get into this stock?
>
> Thanks

New Vietnam ETF: 3 Reasons to Proceed with Caution

Ironic or coincidental; a few months ago I tried to scope out a Vietnam position. All I could find was one issue, CAVI.ob. If you DD, it reads like a great Spec play. I was told that for Vietnam to prove itself, it would have to do that via this Cavico Corp. Only because of your article I went to my Watch List and found it didn't pop up. Seems like today the symbol has changed to CAVO.ob, and must have done a Reverse Split, looks like 10 to 1 --- at least I hope so, or I missed a 10-bagger. Anyone know this one?/ its slim-pickens in Vietnam, and I could accept that they would have to use this issue "IF" they want to prove themselves.
www.cavicocorp.com/web...

Chevy Volt Hybrid vs. BYD e6 Pure Electric

How about doing some simple re-Searching, instead of "from what I understand" ? You should know that the F3DM wasn't, still isn't, available to the Public. All sales went to government agencies and Fleet owners.

BYD has an F3 <<< gas only


F3 is the most popular BYD model and has been China's fourth-best selling car in the first half of the year.

Jun. 24, 2009 (Xinhua News Agency) -- Chinese automaker BYD Auto sold 144,741 vehicles in the first five months of this year, with F3 leading all BYD models in sales to 96,181 in January to May.

The automaker said that it plans to sell 400,000 vehicles in the full year of 2009. As an effort to fulfill the goal, it will later launch five new models including M6, S8, G3, L3 and S6.

BYD Auto is a subsidiary of BYD, which produces 65 percent of the world's nickel-cadmium batteries and 30 percent of the world's lithium-ion mobile phone batteries. BYD purchased Xi'an Qinchuan Automobile Co. in 2003 and started its auto business.
======================...

Jun. 17, 2009 (China Knowledge) - BYD Co<1211>, which is China's largest rechargeable battery maker and a famous automobile producer, plans to sell its F3DM plug-in hybrid compact sedan to individual customers this September, sources reported.

The automaker's F3DM car was released for sale to government agencies and corporations on Dec. 15, 2008.

BYD Auto Co Ltd, a subsidiary of BYD, has already launched a nationwide campaign to market its F3DM sedan in China. The company also aims to sell the sedan in Europe next year and in the U.S. the year after that.

The BYD F3DM vehicle is the world's first new-energy car model that can be charged using a household power outlet. The car can be recharged to 50% in 10 minutes at BYD's charging station and can be recharged to 100% in nine hours by a household power outlet.

In April, sales of F3DM jumped 143% year on year to hit a monthly record of 22,721 units.
======================...
I hope anyone reading articles on this site does Not rely on the info. Needless to say, though I will, you should take some time and do some simple researching---Especially if you're going to post on a topic.

On Aug 12 07:15 AM kmi wrote:

> From what I understand of the BYD product, their figures are heavily
> optimistic and performance non-existant; it shouldn't be considered
> a competitor as their product can't compete on any level in the international
> arena.
>
> Apparently it isn't really selling even in China. Even with incentives.
>
>
> It seems the value in the company is mostly a result of their battery
> oriented partnerships with larger international automakers rather
> than in the vehicles they are bringing to market.
>
> I like it as an investment but I wouldn't bet on any BYD product
> one-upping the Volt or the new offerings coming out of Japan for
> that matter either (Nissan Leaf or Mitsu iMEV or something like that).
>
>
> All-electrics will be falling on the market like an avalanche over
> the next couple of years, CODA has something already on the market
> in US I believe, and Henry Paulson and some other easily recognizable
> names are involved, Tesla is bringing it's Model S to market eventually...
> I doubt BYD will be competitive in that space.

The IPO Returns: China Moves to Improve Capital Allocation

I should mention here that BYD Company, BYDDF the ticker here, has an IPO in the works. I do own both CAF and BYDDF, and mentioned BYDDF is several of my posts on SeekingAlpha.
Anyone who has not DD'd them should look beyond their Auto Division, which seems to get 90%+ of the attention. This totally misses their Core business as a Battery Maker, China's largest, and strong enough to hold a Global Market Share of 65% and 35% in two types of batteries.
You will also find that Warren Buffet's Mid-America took a 10% stake, though they wanted a 25% stake, and still trying to increase. What's important about this is their looking at BYDDF to be the Battery Storage component to ALT-Energy [Solar, Wind, etc.]. The two most recent moves that I see as important is their planned move to establish an Auto plant in Brazil, targeting Brazil and S.America, and they just boughtout a Bus Maker in China.

Right now they are listed in Hong Kong. The IPO is for Mainland China's Market. Their first choice is the Shenzhen Exchange but would take the Shanghai Exchange listing also.

CEF Volume Trends May Portend Their Appreciation

I'm really glad I read this article and all the comments [ excellent "debate" guys ]. You all seem to be much more informed re:CEF's, so I have a comment and question, I hope someone can respond to.
This clip explains why I invested in CAF:
""""CEFs give you access to some asset classes and strategies that so far do not have an equivalent in ETFs.""""

Last year I was looking for an investment vehicle to get into the China A-Shares. I found CAF and no other choices. Fact is I didn't know if it was a CEF or ETF, I just wanted in.
What I'm puzzled about is the "Retained" Divi. What happens to this? Suppose someone sold, though they were Holders when that Divi/Earnings were made. I'm not selling, just curious.

I did receive $1.83 on Jan 16, but there is over $2 in "Retained" Earnings, after MS deducted the taxes...so what happens to this? Do I just wonder when they decide to pay this?

Here is some info:

EX-DATE RECORD DATE PAYABLE DATE -------- ----------- ------------ 07/09/08 07/11/08 07/15/08

The Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. (the "Fund"), advised by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc., is a closed-end management investment company seeking to achieve capital growth through investments primarily in A-Shares of Chinese companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges.

The Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. (the "Fund"), advised by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc., is a closed-end management investment company seeking to achieve capital growth through investments primarily in A-Shares of Chinese companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges.
============
[ i added the asterisks ]
The Fund has elected to retain a portion of its realized capital gains for the tax year ending December 31, 2008 ***because of issues relating to the Fund’s ability to repatriate funds from China***. The Fund will pay the required federal corporate income taxes on these gains.

Per share estimates of the Fund's retained capital gains and corresponding federal corporate income taxes paid are as follows:



Per Share

Capital Gain Retained
$ 2.1199
Federal Income Taxes Paid by Fund
$ (.7420 )
Net Capital Gain Retained
$ 1.3779

=============


On Jun 30 07:47 AM klarsolo wrote:

> The first argument can also be applied to ETFs to some degree. ETFs
> don't have a managed distribution policy, but when times get tough,
> the stocks inside the ETF will cut their distribution and that cut
> will be passed through.
>
> Regarding the second statement, if you're not forced to sell, you
> do not have to worry about a rising discount in bad times. You know
> that once things settle down you'll have a good chance of getting
> that extra-underperformance back.
>
> ****CEFs give you access to some asset classes and strategies that so far do not have an equivalent in ETFs*****. Sometimes you even get them
> at steep discounts. Instead of thinking in black and white terms
> ("CEF's are bad, ETF's are good"), be flexible.

S&P 500: Which Earnings Are Most Relevant to Its Performance?

Ah yes, the PE ratio of the S&P 500, an item that seems to be "Off Limits" from reporting on, unless some new "Yardstick" is used.
I think its time to see a type of "shadowstats" on the PE of the S&P500, just as we need to view shadowstats.com to see what CPI would look like using the same Yardstick used through the 80's.

As astounding and unbelievable it is to imagine we would ever have a PE of 100+, that is the PE on the S&P 500 today, about PE 134. Any of who have read, I'll use Sy Harding's "Riding a Bear", or any source of material that goes into Historical Averages, Highs, Lows, etc., would know the 10-15-20 PE range meanings.

Keep in mind that the current 134 PE includes the highly fudged Q1/09 Earnings, assisted by a retroactive Accounting Rule Change, the Mark-to-Makeup numbers used. Once Q2/09 Earnings are in the PE ratio on the S&P 500 will be in the 1,900 range. So I'm sure people are working on another new Yardstick. But for those who want to use what has always been used to determine the PE with the standard Yardstick, you can simply go the official S&P Website. I'll leave the link, and a paste of the PE:

www2.standardandpoors....
[ same link made Tiny ]
tinyurl.com/5g8k8z

S&P 500 Statistics
As of June 30, 2009

Total Market Value ($ Billion) 8,045
Mean Market Value ($ Million) 16,090
Median Market Value ($ Million) 6,532
Weighted Ave. Market Value ($ Million) 68,624
Largest Cos. Market Value ($ Million) 341,141
Smallest Cos. Market Value ($ Million) 643
Median Share Price ($) 27.875
P/E Ratio* 134.01 <<<<<&l...

*Based on As Reported Earnings.
======================...
[ they use TMT instead of TTM, Twelve Months Trailing, instead of the more commonly used Trailing Twelve Months, same thing though. I believe most who read seekingalpha will understand why the media does not mention these stats. It is truly astounding to see ]

Estimate based on Q2/09

www.decisionpoint.com/...

DECISION POINT
OVERVIEW OF MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
Wednesday 7/1/2009

TMT P/E Ratio (GAAP)

2009 Q1 / PE 134.20
Estimate Q2/09 / PE 1923.60

The New S&P Bull Market

i'll leave a few pastes of the very little mention of thw whopping PE of the S&P 500 that's been bouncing around the 130 Mark, yes 130, not 13, unless someone/s has already priced in dollar decimalization---and this coming Q2 will make it Higher, since it knocks out Q2/08 from the TTM Earnings, pastes below:

After the earnings result for the quarter ending March 31, 2009 , the PE ratio is now even higher. The reason is the denominator E or earnings in the PE ratio is falling while ht price is rising. For these calculations the 919.14 closing price of the S&P 500 on May 29, 2009 is used.

With 99% of all S&P 500 companies reporting, the as reported earnings are for the March quarter is $7.61 according to Standard & Poor’s. As shown on the chart below the S&P 500 PE ratio has risen to 132 for the quarter ending March 2009. According to Standard & Poor’s estimates for the June and September 2009 quarters are 3,500 and -301 respectively. These two values reflect the serious losses incurred in December 2008 combined with the anemic earnings performance since then. I removed these numbers from the chart as they skewed the chart significantly.
======================...
Mogambo Guru last month:

And now somebody is worried that China would not trust the currency of such a bunch of socialistic, commie-think morons whose currency has been devalued by almost 97% since the Federal Reserve was given control of the money and banks in 1913? Hahaha!

But there is insanity everywhere, and to show stark evidence of an astonishing degree of absolute insanity, the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is now, according to a table in Barron's, a ludicrous 122.45! Beyond belief! Hahahaha!

This preposterous P/E ratio is caused by the earnings of the companies in the S&P 500 index dropping to a miniscule $7.21 per share (down from the 2007 high of over $84 per share!) at the same time as there are so many complete morons willing to pay $882 a share! Hahaha! Morons!
===================
and the S&P Website itself:
S&P 500 Statistics
As of May 29, 2009

Total Market Value ($ Billion) 8,035
Mean Market Value ($ Million) 16,070
Median Market Value ($ Million) 6,490
Weighted Ave. Market Value ($ Million) 67,881
Largest Cos. Market Value ($ Million) 342,702
Smallest Cos. Market Value ($ Million) 458
Median Share Price ($) 28.00
P/E Ratio* 127.48 <<<<<&l...
Indicated Dividend Yield (%) 2.47
NM - Not Meaningful *Based on As Reported Earnings.


www2.standardandpoors....

State Street: Is It Trading for Federal Accounts?

What easier way to lick-off such a well Orchestrated "Rally" than to use your own Stock and Sector, everyone given the Playbook.
So the best, safest, surest, plays were to Bet "Invest" in themselves and their Sector. The March 10 & 12 Touts by BAC & C, pretty much word for word repeats about Jan & Feb noted.

I took note of the virtual silence in the Media, especially the Financial Media, that the Big Banks ALL experienced Gains in the 100% to 5-Fold+ range. I refer you to BAC's 3.00 to 15.++, and C/Citi's 1 to 4+, but not much written about these huge 2 months gains.....and weren't many New Offerings made at these Highs.
On top of this a look at such heavy volume Double & Triple Financial Sector ETF's, like FAZ & FAS, saw moves like 115 to 5, and ALL saw heavy activity in their Options.
Of course wanting to give back the TARP Money is no surprise. They should all have Gains many multiples the original stake.

I also found it interesting seeing the WHouse Meeting with the Big Bans CEO's and what seemed odd at the time was hearing the Pres suggest Buy Stocks. You can google [ Obama Buy stocks ] and read the Headlines at the time, March 3, the kick-off March 9

BYD: Positioning Berkshire for the 'Chinese Century'

you've been consistently wrong re: BYDDF, which is now over $4. You should actually DD deeply BYD Company, my personal portfolio favorite. Buffet had nothing to do with my entry. I bought byddf before he entered on a search for a China battery maker.


On May 03 09:49 AM John Petersen wrote:

> Buffet's effective price per share was in the $1.12 range. Since
> BYD is now trading at about $2.85 (presumably from the Buffet halo
> effect) the market valuation metrics for investors are nowhere near
> as attractive as they were for Warren.

CNBC's Rosenberg: Four Factors at Play in the Market

The Cheaper the Dollar, the Higher the Market. This is what most are missing. Look at a chart of the USD and the DOW, S&P on March 9th. As for Manipulation, we are at Max levels & Rising. The PPT has been on steroids since Paulson took the helm. The Dollar is being sacrificed for the Market and to make our Debt a fraction of today's dollar. I expect to see a New Currency and some Debt, like Mortgage debt, kept fixed on "Old", today's dollar, though payable with the new, and many problems resolved. Think about this.

Why Is Oil Creeping Back Up?

Many of the articles, including this one and especially those referring to the "Rally" can be replied to with this same wording:
As the USD drops prices go Up, be it the DOW, OIL, etc.
All else being equal a 10%, 15% Loss in the Dollar translates to an equal Gain/Rise in the Price Quotes we see

If you consider that the USD is heading substantially Lower, if you knew that the USD was heading Lower, than you could go Long on the Indexes we have all witnessed Rising for over 2 months, with no Fundamental reason obvious.......only if you look at it as I just tried to explain would this Rally make sense.

I have little doubt that a select "few" know things that the Average Investor does not.....this "thought" of mine is the one that could best explain what is going on. Another way to look at it is by viewing the DOW, OIL, etc., in other currencies. The Gains we see here in the US are not seen in other countries/currencies, so I say its the Currency, its a much Lower Dollar that's in play