topshelf

State Street: Is It Trading for Federal Accounts?

What easier way to lick-off such a well Orchestrated "Rally" than to use your own Stock and Sector, everyone given the Playbook.
So the best, safest, surest, plays were to Bet "Invest" in themselves and their Sector. The March 10 & 12 Touts by BAC & C, pretty much word for word repeats about Jan & Feb noted.

I took note of the virtual silence in the Media, especially the Financial Media, that the Big Banks ALL experienced Gains in the 100% to 5-Fold+ range. I refer you to BAC's 3.00 to 15.++, and C/Citi's 1 to 4+, but not much written about these huge 2 months gains.....and weren't many New Offerings made at these Highs.
On top of this a look at such heavy volume Double & Triple Financial Sector ETF's, like FAZ & FAS, saw moves like 115 to 5, and ALL saw heavy activity in their Options.
Of course wanting to give back the TARP Money is no surprise. They should all have Gains many multiples the original stake.

I also found it interesting seeing the WHouse Meeting with the Big Bans CEO's and what seemed odd at the time was hearing the Pres suggest Buy Stocks. You can google [ Obama Buy stocks ] and read the Headlines at the time, March 3, the kick-off March 9

S&P 500: Which Earnings Are Most Relevant to Its Performance?

Ah yes, the PE ratio of the S&P 500, an item that seems to be "Off Limits" from reporting on, unless some new "Yardstick" is used.
I think its time to see a type of "shadowstats" on the PE of the S&P500, just as we need to view shadowstats.com to see what CPI would look like using the same Yardstick used through the 80's.

As astounding and unbelievable it is to imagine we would ever have a PE of 100+, that is the PE on the S&P 500 today, about PE 134. Any of who have read, I'll use Sy Harding's "Riding a Bear", or any source of material that goes into Historical Averages, Highs, Lows, etc., would know the 10-15-20 PE range meanings.

Keep in mind that the current 134 PE includes the highly fudged Q1/09 Earnings, assisted by a retroactive Accounting Rule Change, the Mark-to-Makeup numbers used. Once Q2/09 Earnings are in the PE ratio on the S&P 500 will be in the 1,900 range. So I'm sure people are working on another new Yardstick. But for those who want to use what has always been used to determine the PE with the standard Yardstick, you can simply go the official S&P Website. I'll leave the link, and a paste of the PE:

www2.standardandpoors....
[ same link made Tiny ]
tinyurl.com/5g8k8z

S&P 500 Statistics
As of June 30, 2009

Total Market Value ($ Billion) 8,045
Mean Market Value ($ Million) 16,090
Median Market Value ($ Million) 6,532
Weighted Ave. Market Value ($ Million) 68,624
Largest Cos. Market Value ($ Million) 341,141
Smallest Cos. Market Value ($ Million) 643
Median Share Price ($) 27.875
P/E Ratio* 134.01 <<<<<&l...

*Based on As Reported Earnings.
======================...
[ they use TMT instead of TTM, Twelve Months Trailing, instead of the more commonly used Trailing Twelve Months, same thing though. I believe most who read seekingalpha will understand why the media does not mention these stats. It is truly astounding to see ]

Estimate based on Q2/09

www.decisionpoint.com/...

DECISION POINT
OVERVIEW OF MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
Wednesday 7/1/2009

TMT P/E Ratio (GAAP)

2009 Q1 / PE 134.20
Estimate Q2/09 / PE 1923.60

The New S&P Bull Market

i'll leave a few pastes of the very little mention of thw whopping PE of the S&P 500 that's been bouncing around the 130 Mark, yes 130, not 13, unless someone/s has already priced in dollar decimalization---and this coming Q2 will make it Higher, since it knocks out Q2/08 from the TTM Earnings, pastes below:

After the earnings result for the quarter ending March 31, 2009 , the PE ratio is now even higher. The reason is the denominator E or earnings in the PE ratio is falling while ht price is rising. For these calculations the 919.14 closing price of the S&P 500 on May 29, 2009 is used.

With 99% of all S&P 500 companies reporting, the as reported earnings are for the March quarter is $7.61 according to Standard & Poor’s. As shown on the chart below the S&P 500 PE ratio has risen to 132 for the quarter ending March 2009. According to Standard & Poor’s estimates for the June and September 2009 quarters are 3,500 and -301 respectively. These two values reflect the serious losses incurred in December 2008 combined with the anemic earnings performance since then. I removed these numbers from the chart as they skewed the chart significantly.
======================...
Mogambo Guru last month:

And now somebody is worried that China would not trust the currency of such a bunch of socialistic, commie-think morons whose currency has been devalued by almost 97% since the Federal Reserve was given control of the money and banks in 1913? Hahaha!

But there is insanity everywhere, and to show stark evidence of an astonishing degree of absolute insanity, the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is now, according to a table in Barron's, a ludicrous 122.45! Beyond belief! Hahahaha!

This preposterous P/E ratio is caused by the earnings of the companies in the S&P 500 index dropping to a miniscule $7.21 per share (down from the 2007 high of over $84 per share!) at the same time as there are so many complete morons willing to pay $882 a share! Hahaha! Morons!
===================
and the S&P Website itself:
S&P 500 Statistics
As of May 29, 2009

Total Market Value ($ Billion) 8,035
Mean Market Value ($ Million) 16,070
Median Market Value ($ Million) 6,490
Weighted Ave. Market Value ($ Million) 67,881
Largest Cos. Market Value ($ Million) 342,702
Smallest Cos. Market Value ($ Million) 458
Median Share Price ($) 28.00
P/E Ratio* 127.48 <<<<<&l...
Indicated Dividend Yield (%) 2.47
NM - Not Meaningful *Based on As Reported Earnings.


www2.standardandpoors....

Confidence and Trade: Spin vs. Reality

the only shame, mark anthony, is in your postings and your articles i just scanned. that's some big loss on your PAL tout, unless you bailed before reaching an 80% loss

you used California w/o mentioning that they raised their Sales Tax Increased 13.8% from 7.25% to 8.25% on April 1

=less goods and services, but taxed higher

March was expected to be higher, since many increased purchases prior to the tax increase

CNBC's Rosenberg: Four Factors at Play in the Market

The Cheaper the Dollar, the Higher the Market. This is what most are missing. Look at a chart of the USD and the DOW, S&P on March 9th. As for Manipulation, we are at Max levels & Rising. The PPT has been on steroids since Paulson took the helm. The Dollar is being sacrificed for the Market and to make our Debt a fraction of today's dollar. I expect to see a New Currency and some Debt, like Mortgage debt, kept fixed on "Old", today's dollar, though payable with the new, and many problems resolved. Think about this.

Questions About the Dollar

Just this consideration I've thought to comment on in many Seekingalpha articles. As the USD Drops it has the by-product effect of causing the Market to go Up, all other things being equal.
In fact the Orchestrated Rally we all witnessed, that began around March 9, included the last rally in the USD of about 10%.

If we woke up in the morning and the USD had dropped 10% Overnight, each Unit/Dollar of the DOW, S&P, any equity, would have a value of $0.90 compared to the $1.00 of the day before, so if the DOW was at 8,300 the day before it would take 830 DOW points to equal the $8,300 @$1.00 of the day before, actually a bit more, a 9230 DOW made up of 90 cent Dollars would equal the 8,300 DOW of a full 100 cent Dollar.
I hope you get my point----a bit hard to explain, maybe if you also think of Hyper Inflated Currency <<< a weakened currency, it might help grasp my point.

OPEC and Production Cuts: Why Now's the Time to Buy

First let me paste a clip from one of the many articles on the OPEC Meeting. Take note of the wording, the hint, of something more than a Cut in Supply being possible. I'll asterisk the words:

TEHRAN (AFP) — OPEC will decide on a "major" output cut next month if the oil market is deemed to be deteriorating, the cartel's secretary general Abdalla Salem El-Badri said on Monday.

"If we see the market is deteriorating we will make ***a major action*** in Algeria *and anywhere if necessary*," he told reporters in Iran.

El-Badri, who is attending an oil and gas seminar in Tehran, said earlier that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will cut production by a "good amount" when it meets in December to tackle tumbling prices.

"If there is ***an action** that OPEC can take, ***it will not hesitate*** to stabilize the market," he said in English.

"We can't say how much the output cut will be in December but for sure there will be an action because we're seeing that stocks are high," he said. "I cannot tell you (the size of the cut) but it will be a good amount."

"The price of 75 USD is reasonable but our outlook is for between 70 to 90 USD per barrel," El-Badri said.

The cartel's secretary general said non-OPEC oil producers "Mexico and Norway have already declined the production naturally by themselves," adding that OPEC would seek to convince Russia to join the efforts as well.

"After Algeria meeting myself or the head of the conference will go to Moscow to try make them participate."
======================...
my 2 cents:

Consider that Saudi is the friendliest to the US/West. IMHO Saudi sent a Hint of the price needed to make the Cut on the Low side.
Saudi gave the West a Marker, a Target Price, of $75.
The closer to $75 that Crude gets to in a mere 2 weeks, Dec 17th, the less the Cut of Supply. Should Crude stay at the $50 Range, or worse be below $50 by Dec 17th, then the Hawks of OPEC get their way, and OPEC makes a stunning Cut and/or an "action".

If you read the wording carefully, you can see OPEC gave a delicately worded Caution. A Cut is definite. We don't know how much. What is "an action"? Is that something more than a Cut, something like a Halt?

There are a few more important items in play at this same time. OPEC has an opportunity here to get an increase in their Power. Russia may consider increased cooperation with OPEC, paving the way an eventual joining....but only if they see the way this dilemma is handled turn out to work. Norway and Mexico are also watching.

In another way of looking at this, the coming decision is being placed in the West's Court. OPEC passed the "Ball" to the West, and said, [my wording in a brass tacks manner], "if you don't increase the price of Crude, we will make a huge Cut. We in Saudi will try to make $75 acceptable to the others, and we in Saudi need $75 also. Even with $75 we will have some countries saying they need a higher price. So its up to you. If we don't see an increase at or heading towards $75, we're going to shock you... your call'

Is China BAK Battery More Attractive After Warren Buffett's Investment in BYD?

I don't know if you are aware that BYD is listed in the US. It does trade using the Tracking symbol BYDDF. I had come across them months ago just by chance. Actually they are and have been more well known for the batteries they supply for cell-phones, computers, and just about every type of battery made. They are China's largest and a Global leader in many types. I hope you dig into them deeply. The current share price for BYDDF, about 2, is about 80% Below its High of last year, plus it pays a dividend. Most China based stocks experienced a huge drop in the past year. The China Market was cut by a bit over 2/3, from over 6,000 to under 2,000. I'll look at CBAK and you may have to redo this article if you research BYDDF.

Confidence and Trade: Spin vs. Reality

where did you see a complaint? that was information that was not included. do you need a link that tells you that CA raised Sales Tax on April 1 to 8.25% from 7.25%? don't you think this is an important item to factor-in?...try researching a tad

The Deceitful Practice of Window Dressing: Why Has the SEC Done Nothing About It?

Mr J S Kim,
What can I say...Superb...needed to be said...I have saved [copy/paste in case it vanishes] this along with the Comments made, as far as I'm concerned this is the best, most important Topic, SAlpaha writing I've read. Recently I have noted the phrase "Singing to the Choir" used, and while its used correctly, I believe the underlying message we all can take away is to try our best to get the "Song" heard by The Public

[[[ the one side-note I'll add, since the Comments already made cover most everything else....consider also the Huge amount of Gains made in the Personal Accounts of those, like in this case Fund/Money Managers, and all who "assist" and enable this to continue ]]]

Kudos

Friday Roundup: Reality Bites Bulls

This is the longest period of time ever that the actual [REAL] PE of the S&P 500 has not been mentioned. Amazing when you consider this Historically. The S&P 500 is the undisputed Benchmark for the US Stock Market. It wasn't that long ago when there was a standard way to quote and state that PE Ratio. Like several other Market, Economic, and Financial items, we have seen changes made in various ways, anywhere from just totally eliminating, M3 an example, or changing the formula for the Calculation.

Bottom Line re: the S&P 500, I don't believe its Allowed for anyone to mention the Real PE, certainly not on TV, like CNBC, and very rarely in an article, though not in any widely read MSMedia in Print. Mentioning a PE of over 100 would be career suicide, and I believe any TV broadcast would be assured that any guest, talking head, would only talk about such things that are within a near match to the "Script" that gets fed to the Average Joes & Janes.

And lets not forget, this PE of over 100 was only made possible with the assistance of the changes in Accounting & Reporting that a quick Law change was given to the Financials for the reporting of Q1/09.

One thing I find noteworthy is the Standard, Historically used Yardstick hasn't been lost. I noticed this when the PE for China, and some other countries, equivalent Benchmark is quoted, the usual, Standard, historic Yardstick is used. Its just set aside, hidden in a corner, when it comes to our S&P 500 and equities in general. I won't even begin on the topic of why using Operating Earnings should at least be included, since the use of Stock Options for Pay & Compensation is such a large part of total Pay & Compensation in this country compared to the rest of the world.

There should be one Measure, one Yardstick, and it should be the one we always used.

BYD's Electric Car Ready for U.S. Debut a Year Early

BYD Company gets added to the Hang Seng, Monday Sep 7. You may want to DD all you can and decide before Friday the 4th. I own BYDDF, have for a good year, and love this company. Can't imagine not owning it. re: the price of the Auto in the US, if that $40K stands, then it sounds like a 100% tariff. I hope Oregon make a deal with BYD Co.---they've been trying, as is Brazil. Paste:
The compiler of Hong Kong's stock indexes said Friday it will make no changes to the constituents of the blue-chip Hang Seng Index but added Chinese battery and electric car maker BYD Co. [s:hk:1211] to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, or H-share index, lifting the number of constituents in the share tracker to 44. Hang Seng Indexes, the compiler, announced the change as part of its quarterly review and said the addition would take place Sept. 7

On Aug 23 09:23 AM jimp wrote:

> What's a good price range to get into this stock?
>
> Thanks

New Vietnam ETF: 3 Reasons to Proceed with Caution

Ironic or coincidental; a few months ago I tried to scope out a Vietnam position. All I could find was one issue, CAVI.ob. If you DD, it reads like a great Spec play. I was told that for Vietnam to prove itself, it would have to do that via this Cavico Corp. Only because of your article I went to my Watch List and found it didn't pop up. Seems like today the symbol has changed to CAVO.ob, and must have done a Reverse Split, looks like 10 to 1 --- at least I hope so, or I missed a 10-bagger. Anyone know this one?/ its slim-pickens in Vietnam, and I could accept that they would have to use this issue "IF" they want to prove themselves.
www.cavicocorp.com/web...

Chevy Volt Hybrid vs. BYD e6 Pure Electric

How about doing some simple re-Searching, instead of "from what I understand" ? You should know that the F3DM wasn't, still isn't, available to the Public. All sales went to government agencies and Fleet owners.

BYD has an F3 <<< gas only


F3 is the most popular BYD model and has been China's fourth-best selling car in the first half of the year.

Jun. 24, 2009 (Xinhua News Agency) -- Chinese automaker BYD Auto sold 144,741 vehicles in the first five months of this year, with F3 leading all BYD models in sales to 96,181 in January to May.

The automaker said that it plans to sell 400,000 vehicles in the full year of 2009. As an effort to fulfill the goal, it will later launch five new models including M6, S8, G3, L3 and S6.

BYD Auto is a subsidiary of BYD, which produces 65 percent of the world's nickel-cadmium batteries and 30 percent of the world's lithium-ion mobile phone batteries. BYD purchased Xi'an Qinchuan Automobile Co. in 2003 and started its auto business.
======================...

Jun. 17, 2009 (China Knowledge) - BYD Co<1211>, which is China's largest rechargeable battery maker and a famous automobile producer, plans to sell its F3DM plug-in hybrid compact sedan to individual customers this September, sources reported.

The automaker's F3DM car was released for sale to government agencies and corporations on Dec. 15, 2008.

BYD Auto Co Ltd, a subsidiary of BYD, has already launched a nationwide campaign to market its F3DM sedan in China. The company also aims to sell the sedan in Europe next year and in the U.S. the year after that.

The BYD F3DM vehicle is the world's first new-energy car model that can be charged using a household power outlet. The car can be recharged to 50% in 10 minutes at BYD's charging station and can be recharged to 100% in nine hours by a household power outlet.

In April, sales of F3DM jumped 143% year on year to hit a monthly record of 22,721 units.
======================...
I hope anyone reading articles on this site does Not rely on the info. Needless to say, though I will, you should take some time and do some simple researching---Especially if you're going to post on a topic.

On Aug 12 07:15 AM kmi wrote:

> From what I understand of the BYD product, their figures are heavily
> optimistic and performance non-existant; it shouldn't be considered
> a competitor as their product can't compete on any level in the international
> arena.
>
> Apparently it isn't really selling even in China. Even with incentives.
>
>
> It seems the value in the company is mostly a result of their battery
> oriented partnerships with larger international automakers rather
> than in the vehicles they are bringing to market.
>
> I like it as an investment but I wouldn't bet on any BYD product
> one-upping the Volt or the new offerings coming out of Japan for
> that matter either (Nissan Leaf or Mitsu iMEV or something like that).
>
>
> All-electrics will be falling on the market like an avalanche over
> the next couple of years, CODA has something already on the market
> in US I believe, and Henry Paulson and some other easily recognizable
> names are involved, Tesla is bringing it's Model S to market eventually...
> I doubt BYD will be competitive in that space.

The IPO Returns: China Moves to Improve Capital Allocation

I should mention here that BYD Company, BYDDF the ticker here, has an IPO in the works. I do own both CAF and BYDDF, and mentioned BYDDF is several of my posts on SeekingAlpha.
Anyone who has not DD'd them should look beyond their Auto Division, which seems to get 90%+ of the attention. This totally misses their Core business as a Battery Maker, China's largest, and strong enough to hold a Global Market Share of 65% and 35% in two types of batteries.
You will also find that Warren Buffet's Mid-America took a 10% stake, though they wanted a 25% stake, and still trying to increase. What's important about this is their looking at BYDDF to be the Battery Storage component to ALT-Energy [Solar, Wind, etc.]. The two most recent moves that I see as important is their planned move to establish an Auto plant in Brazil, targeting Brazil and S.America, and they just boughtout a Bus Maker in China.

Right now they are listed in Hong Kong. The IPO is for Mainland China's Market. Their first choice is the Shenzhen Exchange but would take the Shanghai Exchange listing also.