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perryf

perryf
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  • Netflix: Game Over [View article]
    Ummmmm.......Netflix has already stated that a big part of future cash flows will be used to fund international expansion. Since you're such a financial genius, please explain how if the incoming cash is going to be significantly lower due to the costs of the expansion, it will also cover the future commitments also?
    Sep 7 12:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Game Over [View article]
    I thought I was missing something. I have Amazon streaming. At first thru the app my tv came with. Truly a 1st generation attempt at a UI. Then heard it was finally available on PS3. Extremely easy to use now.

    Yet many comments still mention Amazon as thou the earlier app is the only one available.
    Sep 7 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Stock Is Finally Cheap [View article]
    appears to me that the positive reviews require either skipping over some details, or just not mentioning them at all. For example in this article:

    new markets shrink as the subscriber bases grow, and eventually turn into the black (as is now the case in Canada, for instance),

    This statement glosses over several factors. First this assumes that all international territories will be similar to Can. And this is obviously not the case. Several have stated that Love Films (an Amazon projperty) is doing much better in the UK the Netflix. There was an article in the LA Times not too long ago listing the problems Netflix was having in Latin America. Problems clearly indicating the did almost no homework before expanding there.

    Second, the author doesn't mention the cost as Netflix expands their infrastruction with decreasing revenue to cover this cost.

    It seems to me that articles on this site discussing investing in Netflix look strickly at numbers and try to paint a rosy picture from those numbers. Articles discussing why you should stay away from Netflix go into much greater detail as to what the future holds.
    Aug 2 03:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Don't Listen To Wall Street On This One [View article]
    And there was the article yesterday on Amazon signing deal with Universal for Livefilm. Content is king for streaming and Dominic doesn't seem to think it important that, unlike with DVD by mail, for streaming there is a lot of competition causing content deal prices to become far more expensive. Far more expensive content deals + stagnating customer base = disaster. Especially with those future payments coming due as you mentioned.
    Jun 1 03:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Don't Listen To Wall Street On This One [View article]
    Wow. What does one have to do with the other? DVD by mail filled a massive void left open by the not too bright execs at Blockbuster. I remember going to a Blockbuster when i bought my 1st dvd player. They had maybe 2 shelfs worth of DVD at most. And it took quite a while for tapes to dissapear. Having access to DVD's by mail, with a massive selection, was a godsend. From Netflix's point of view, they required an inventory of an item with a pretty much fixed cost. And the ability to acquire the inventory from other sources should the studios give them a difficult time.

    Streaming is a much different beast. There are many hurdles to setting up a streaming biz, not the least of which is that 1 ton beast in the room of the potential of metered bandwith. Other factors are the cost of the contracts for streaming content, which are going up dramitically. And the lack of available of any compelling content thru streaming.

    US streaming might be profitable, but it needs to be extremely profitable to pay for the infrastructure for their streaming expansion. And this is not the case. Especially with their domestic subscriber base basically leveled off.
    May 31 03:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Don't Listen To Wall Street On This One [View article]
    I see many flaws in ur article. Let's start at the top:

    1) Second paragraph that discusses the fundamentals of their stock price. Who care's? This is a company facing financial pressures on all sides. Saying "The beta is trending around 0.5" is meaningless when discussing a company who's environment is changing on a daily basis.

    2) Next paragraph, "Netflix's service is still highly regarded and popular among subscribers." Not in my circles. Netflix is no longer the end-all in television watching. I was just talking about Netflix with someone the other day. First question out of the other guy's mouth, "Try finding something you really want to watch". You mention loosing Starz as a good move. The quality of their offerings went down tremendously. And you gloss over it like it was a good thing for them. "Netflix is currently focused on building its market in Latin America". A little research would have brought up an article from the LA Times within the last couple weeks discussing the hurdles Netflix is facing in the region. Many of the hurdles I would have thought they would have figured out how to deal with before investing in the region.

    3) Next paragraph, "Amazon (AMZN) and Coinstar's (CSTR) Redbox are inferior products when compared to where Netflix is right now." Once again, a very important point you just gloss over. By what criteria are they inferior? The listing on Amazon are maybe not to Netflix level, but close enough it becomes compelling when you throw in prime shipping. Redbox, very debatable. If I want to watch a current movie, Redbox is far superior.

    Further into your article, "Forming partnerships with providers like Dish (DISH) could prove to be beneficial in the future as well." Why would Dish feel necessary to a deal with Netflix when they have Blockbuster online that they now offer to Dish customers?

    "Building exclusive relationships with studios, service providers, and device manufacturers -- as well as focusing on emerging markets". This statement gets to the heart of the matter from a financial point of view. One you once again gloss over. The studios are attempting to replace lost DVD sales revenue with streaming revenue. These contracts are getting far more expensive. Nowhere in your article do you discuss how Netflix is going to pay for more expensive contracts when they have flat subscriber growth domestically and also big bills to pay also for their international expansion (where there are big question marks as to the profitable of this expansion).
    May 31 01:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Limited Downside, Significant Upside [View article]
    Here's another Netflix article from this site that is far, far, far more accurate then this one in describing Netflix's future:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 11 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Limited Downside, Significant Upside [View article]
    Talk about hitting the nail on the head. The author is clearly lacking in his understanding of the industry. Far too many points he either doesn't cover or just glosses over. Two off the top of my head:

    1) "This year has seen movies consistently set new box office records, of note is Avengers, which looks set to top a whole range of box office records. This is important to Netflix because it indicates the large growth that is to come in the larger industry as a whole." - As another commentor mentions this point has no basis on being in an article discussing streaming. You version of netflix must be far different then mine. I don't see ANY recent box office hits available to me. And I don't recall the last time I read an article discussing Netflix adding a library that included titles I was really interested in.

    2) There was much discussion when Netflix announced their international plans. These discussions focused on the big problems ahead. Netflix needs substantial subscriber growth to pay for their expansion. But thier overall subscriber count is falling or stagnant. So there is a big chance of Netflix running into big cashflow problems in the future.

    The author has clearly missed the point of your post. I think you're similar to me in that you're not looking for "an in depth statistical analysis or where it will be in the future". Just a more indepth explanation of points the author has chosen to ignore.
    May 10 10:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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