DeltaHotel's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/281477/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174423-bill-gross-anything-but-0-01?source=feed#comment-772883 772883 -Storm999

Storm you've hit the nail on the head here - The USD is being used as THE carry currency of the world right now and the proceeds are going into commodities like Gold,OIl and NatGas.

We're already seeing how higher fuel prices (at least here in the UK anyway, currently at £1.10 per litre / £5.00 per gallon) are really stretching ordinary people's budgets.

I suspect we may see the vicious inflation cycle repeating itself as happened last year :-

Oil prices start rising > fuel prices at the pump begin to rise > people become concerned about inflation and buy crude oil futures / ETFs to "hedge" > increased hedging/demand for crude pushes prices up even more > inflation feeds on itself being fuelled by people wanting to hedge against inflation > oil prices keep rising only faster

Of course, increased energy prices then push up the cost of transporting goods which mean retail and food products increase in price and so it goes on.

What do people think about this theory?]]> Mon, 23 Nov 2009 05:02:42 -0500 -Storm999

Storm you've hit the nail on the head here - The USD is being used as THE carry currency of the world right now and the proceeds are going into commodities like Gold,OIl and NatGas.

We're already seeing how higher fuel prices (at least here in the UK anyway, currently at £1.10 per litre / £5.00 per gallon) are really stretching ordinary people's budgets.

I suspect we may see the vicious inflation cycle repeating itself as happened last year :-

Oil prices start rising > fuel prices at the pump begin to rise > people become concerned about inflation and buy crude oil futures / ETFs to "hedge" > increased hedging/demand for crude pushes prices up even more > inflation feeds on itself being fuelled by people wanting to hedge against inflation > oil prices keep rising only faster

Of course, increased energy prices then push up the cost of transporting goods which mean retail and food products increase in price and so it goes on.

What do people think about this theory?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140508-goldman-sachs-principal-transactions-update-collapse-in-agency-program-trading-volume?source=feed#comment-525650 525650 I no longer trade or invest because I do not trust anything anymore - just look at all these government interventions,hedge funds closing out MASSIVE short positions,zombie banks issuing cash calls....it's utter lunacy.]]> Sun, 31 May 2009 18:15:42 -0400 I no longer trade or invest because I do not trust anything anymore - just look at all these government interventions,hedge funds closing out MASSIVE short positions,zombie banks issuing cash calls....it's utter lunacy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117713-amazon-is-looking-like-starbucks-of-yore-too-expensive?source=feed#comment-407278 407278
However what I am trying to say is that I agree with your point about "big money trading" having worked at a large IB - Fundamentals and technicals quite frankly irrelevant with regards to the stock market nowadays.

The ONLY thing that moves stocks is fast money i.e Hedge Funds, and Institutional Investors like mutual&pension funds.

My sole piece of advice to any investor would be : Find out what Hedge Funds & other "big money" players are buying or shorting and follow suit.




On Jan 30 08:05 PM Network Effect wrote:

> Amen brother, but Amazon is yet another example of why wall street
> is a con man's game. The pros are long so they don't talk about this,
> they choose to talk about the positive side of the story. Once they've
> made their money and are out, they will then talk about all these
> negatives. The key to making money in the stock market has nothing
> to do with fundamental analysis. It has to do with figuring out how
> big money is trading, and nothing else. they will focus on whatever
> they decide they want to focus on, and for the past couple years,
> it appears that they are more and more focusing on whatever main
> street is not focusing on. It takes two to trade, and the story is
> clear as day the last couple years - wall street trades the opposite
> of whatever main street trades, regardless of the story. They just
> focus through the media on the part of the story that backs their
> trade. Hence the con.]]> Sat, 28 Feb 2009 18:21:43 -0500
However what I am trying to say is that I agree with your point about "big money trading" having worked at a large IB - Fundamentals and technicals quite frankly irrelevant with regards to the stock market nowadays.

The ONLY thing that moves stocks is fast money i.e Hedge Funds, and Institutional Investors like mutual&pension funds.

My sole piece of advice to any investor would be : Find out what Hedge Funds & other "big money" players are buying or shorting and follow suit.




On Jan 30 08:05 PM Network Effect wrote:

> Amen brother, but Amazon is yet another example of why wall street
> is a con man's game. The pros are long so they don't talk about this,
> they choose to talk about the positive side of the story. Once they've
> made their money and are out, they will then talk about all these
> negatives. The key to making money in the stock market has nothing
> to do with fundamental analysis. It has to do with figuring out how
> big money is trading, and nothing else. they will focus on whatever
> they decide they want to focus on, and for the past couple years,
> it appears that they are more and more focusing on whatever main
> street is not focusing on. It takes two to trade, and the story is
> clear as day the last couple years - wall street trades the opposite
> of whatever main street trades, regardless of the story. They just
> focus through the media on the part of the story that backs their
> trade. Hence the con.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106634-congress-offers-big-three-automakers-help-makes-demands-in-exchange?source=feed#comment-309003 309003 When is this disgusting ineptiude from the Treasury going to stop?
How many more billions are US taxpayers going to see thrown into the byzantine bailout blackhole?
Since the beginning of October (only just 6 weeks ago) countries across the globe have given out over $5 TRILLION (yes TRILLION!!!) worth of "bailout money" to bankrupt countries, crooked corporations and greedy fatcats, yet who gets NOTHING - the decent, hardworking taxpayer who is about to have their home repossessed, has been made redundant and cannot support their family.
And that's what we call "capitalism"............. God help us all.]]> Tue, 18 Nov 2008 12:19:16 -0500 When is this disgusting ineptiude from the Treasury going to stop?
How many more billions are US taxpayers going to see thrown into the byzantine bailout blackhole?
Since the beginning of October (only just 6 weeks ago) countries across the globe have given out over $5 TRILLION (yes TRILLION!!!) worth of "bailout money" to bankrupt countries, crooked corporations and greedy fatcats, yet who gets NOTHING - the decent, hardworking taxpayer who is about to have their home repossessed, has been made redundant and cannot support their family.
And that's what we call "capitalism"............. God help us all.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105623-is-buffett-really-losing-his-touch?source=feed#comment-304204 304204 A little note to those buy-and-hold (and forgettabou'dem) merchants who naively and blindly follow the "wisdom" of the Shepherd Buffett : If you don't plan an entry and EXIT strategy then you ain't gonna make any money!
I know this from personal experience having advised my own father about taking profits on the stocks he has owned for over 20 years (like BG Group BG.L) which is up over 400% since 2003 alone.
Remember Warren Buffett has had the benefit of being able to buy stocks over 40 years ago and was "lucky" (yes lucky) that some of his good investments have risen exponentially over that time.
For many young/middleaged/retir... investors they will not have had Buffetts experience or luck and unfortunately have had their stock portfolios obliterated in the past year.
Timing is not just important, it is CRUCIAL to making money from the stock market.
Buy-and-hold merchants wake up and do some homework.]]> Wed, 12 Nov 2008 12:48:31 -0500 A little note to those buy-and-hold (and forgettabou'dem) merchants who naively and blindly follow the "wisdom" of the Shepherd Buffett : If you don't plan an entry and EXIT strategy then you ain't gonna make any money!
I know this from personal experience having advised my own father about taking profits on the stocks he has owned for over 20 years (like BG Group BG.L) which is up over 400% since 2003 alone.
Remember Warren Buffett has had the benefit of being able to buy stocks over 40 years ago and was "lucky" (yes lucky) that some of his good investments have risen exponentially over that time.
For many young/middleaged/retir... investors they will not have had Buffetts experience or luck and unfortunately have had their stock portfolios obliterated in the past year.
Timing is not just important, it is CRUCIAL to making money from the stock market.
Buy-and-hold merchants wake up and do some homework.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101910-anatomy-of-a-disaster-the-next-stop?source=feed#comment-290816 290816 Your hypothesis that there is no growth without debt accumulation has to be the most enlightening theory I have heard in a long time.
In relation to this brilliant thesis, It is both frightening yet intriguingly insightful that our global economies (well the US and UK at least) have only been so prosperous due to massive debt, accumulated by relentlessly naive consumers,financiers and governments, all in the name of pursuing grotesque personal "wealth" with no foresight or forethought of the consequences of falling asset prices upon which all of that wealth (or should I say debt) was built.
How ridiculously stupid and ignorant of our capitalist societies to be so blinded by the mesmerizing stench of money that nobody ever stopped to consider that this faux wealth accumulation was build on a rickety mountain of trillions and trillions of debt.
Now we are all paying the price, yet still no lessons have been learned.
I am still astounded that the US, UK and European governments are trying to solve this problem by issuing more debt to pay off the existing debt!
Er, hello?! Has nobody told these fatcat politicians that simply throwing more money onto the fire ain't going to extinguish it?
Has anybody noticed how the conceited action of our useless governments in their response to the global credit crisis (i.e issuing more debt to pay off the existing debt) is an exact replication of society as a whole where peolpe "paid off" their credit card debts using other credit cards - merely transferring the debt, not actually reducing it.
The only way we can solve this crisis is to end this crazy credit obsession and go back to a debit system of hard cash in bank accounts. That is why I only have a debit card - I can only spend what I ACTUALLY have. Now there's a thought, eh?]]> Sun, 26 Oct 2008 11:52:24 -0400 Your hypothesis that there is no growth without debt accumulation has to be the most enlightening theory I have heard in a long time.
In relation to this brilliant thesis, It is both frightening yet intriguingly insightful that our global economies (well the US and UK at least) have only been so prosperous due to massive debt, accumulated by relentlessly naive consumers,financiers and governments, all in the name of pursuing grotesque personal "wealth" with no foresight or forethought of the consequences of falling asset prices upon which all of that wealth (or should I say debt) was built.
How ridiculously stupid and ignorant of our capitalist societies to be so blinded by the mesmerizing stench of money that nobody ever stopped to consider that this faux wealth accumulation was build on a rickety mountain of trillions and trillions of debt.
Now we are all paying the price, yet still no lessons have been learned.
I am still astounded that the US, UK and European governments are trying to solve this problem by issuing more debt to pay off the existing debt!
Er, hello?! Has nobody told these fatcat politicians that simply throwing more money onto the fire ain't going to extinguish it?
Has anybody noticed how the conceited action of our useless governments in their response to the global credit crisis (i.e issuing more debt to pay off the existing debt) is an exact replication of society as a whole where peolpe "paid off" their credit card debts using other credit cards - merely transferring the debt, not actually reducing it.
The only way we can solve this crisis is to end this crazy credit obsession and go back to a debit system of hard cash in bank accounts. That is why I only have a debit card - I can only spend what I ACTUALLY have. Now there's a thought, eh?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101804-five-behaviors-for-making-money-now?source=feed#comment-289951 289951 Your last point (about waiting for the markets/stock to put in a new high or low before putting on a position) is so true.
One of the best adages I have heard, goes like this "Don't be impatient and go rushing out looking for any old trade but wait for the trade to come to you". This has been my golden rule, and so far I have been consistently profitable for 10 consecutive trades.
As you say, there are ALWAYS opportunities arising in the markets, so don't be annoyed if you've "missed" a trade, there'll be another 10 just around the corner. Patience is key.
Good luck and successful trading.]]> Fri, 24 Oct 2008 18:32:19 -0400 Your last point (about waiting for the markets/stock to put in a new high or low before putting on a position) is so true.
One of the best adages I have heard, goes like this "Don't be impatient and go rushing out looking for any old trade but wait for the trade to come to you". This has been my golden rule, and so far I have been consistently profitable for 10 consecutive trades.
As you say, there are ALWAYS opportunities arising in the markets, so don't be annoyed if you've "missed" a trade, there'll be another 10 just around the corner. Patience is key.
Good luck and successful trading.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100590-seeing-short-term-strength-in-the-usd?source=feed#comment-285575 285575 I could not understand why USD has been appreciating in spite of rapidly deteriorating economic fundamentals (including massive drops in retail sales, home starts and manafacturing whilst the gross national debt increases steadily past the $10 trillion level!)
It seems like vast inflows of foreign capital into US Government Debt instruments such as Treasuries & T-Bills are acting as both a driver for USD strength and a comparative "safe haven" from vulnerable Euroland currencies.
However with a notional outstanding in FX derivs of $56 trillion, and EUR/USD accounting for perhaps 40% of that figure (around $22.4trn), the question remains - To what level will USD reach if those vast short USD positions are fully unwound?
My predictions for 1Q 2009 are:
EUR/USD - 1.20
GBP/USD - 1.50
But with the current volatility it is almost impossible to predict...
]]> Sun, 19 Oct 2008 09:51:02 -0400 I could not understand why USD has been appreciating in spite of rapidly deteriorating economic fundamentals (including massive drops in retail sales, home starts and manafacturing whilst the gross national debt increases steadily past the $10 trillion level!)
It seems like vast inflows of foreign capital into US Government Debt instruments such as Treasuries & T-Bills are acting as both a driver for USD strength and a comparative "safe haven" from vulnerable Euroland currencies.
However with a notional outstanding in FX derivs of $56 trillion, and EUR/USD accounting for perhaps 40% of that figure (around $22.4trn), the question remains - To what level will USD reach if those vast short USD positions are fully unwound?
My predictions for 1Q 2009 are:
EUR/USD - 1.20
GBP/USD - 1.50
But with the current volatility it is almost impossible to predict...
]]>