tb1975

Gold Not Faring Well Against Inflation

rarely do people have six decades to invest. I agree with the others that are forward looking here- the fact that it is so far below its peak in inflation adjusted terms makes it a more attractive long play here.

When interest rates rise, when the fed stops printing money, when gold is consistently on the cover of major magazines, and when inflation busts over 5%, then it is time to start thinking about selling gold.
this bull has at least 5-10 years left in him.

Gold and Silver 'Bubble' Has Long Way to Go

the calculatedrisk blog publishes a problem bank list every week pieced together from gov't data. It is accurate and up to date as much as possible. Oh yeah, and this blog isn't trying to sell you anything.


On Sep 25 09:08 PM KISSA wrote:

> FDIC keep their Bank Watchlist secret from the public and there is
> a reason to it because many US banks are already bankrupt and FDIC
> can't guarantee deposits anymore.
> We made this list free to all the public, take a look if your bank
> is on our Bank Run list too.
> www.nyse30.com/id45.html

Gold: The Moriarty Warning

Yeah, the miners did great when the market tanked last year- NOT!

Gold had a downturn last fall, but not of the magnitude equities did. To suggest miners are insulated from risk is just silly.


On Sep 19 11:28 AM The Recusant wrote:

> OK, first we can buy gold or silver ETFs, like GLD or SLV, but there's
> a catch. They could be worthless if a big crash were to occur and
> paper gold becomes worthless or if the promised bullion doesn't exist.
> But then there are EFTs that are considered safe with bullion stored
> outside the US system, like GTU, CEF, or SGOL. Or are they safe?
> Then we can buy ETF shorts on the dollar or ETNs on gold futures.
> Again, they are paper promises. Then there's foreign currency funds,
> scary, but maybe a safer route than paper ETFs and ETNs. And last
> but certainly not least, we have the actual bullion. Buying gold
> and silver to stuff away somewhere. But then Uncle Sam may confiscate
> the gold (or even the silver if they prefer). Is anything safe???
> Ah, yes...there's the miners!

Gold: The Moriarty Warning

I have checked the tax code. I own an ETN- with ticker DGP. It sells future contracts on gold and not gold itself and is therefore exempt from the collectible tax. I am up 35% since I bought last December and will pay 20% capital gains tax when I sell.


On Sep 18 04:54 PM gjg49 wrote:

> you might want to check the tax code.
> page 66 of irs publication 550 indicates that the long term cap gains
> rate for collectibles (and this includes gold--gold, silver, and
> platinum are specifically noted) is 28%. that may be less than your
> tax rate on ordinary income, but the tax rate for long term gains
> should probably not be a consideration for whether you hold or sell
> gold.

Gold: The Moriarty Warning

If you are in gold for the right reasons, then the long term is all that matters. I wouldn't take profits here. I'd wait to there was a clear and legitimate reason for the 8 year bull run to be over in gold.

Are we printing less money? Is the dollar set to rally long term? Are interest rates high? etc, etc. When the answer to those questions is yes, that's when you sell gold.

If you are trying to time the market and jump in and out, good luck with that. I'll hold and pay long term gains tax rather than the harsh short term gains tax.

No Reason for Gold to Surge Above $1,000

Does the 50% run-up in US equities seem "warranted" to you? Markets are controlled by people's behavior, which doesn't always make sense.

That being said, there are many solid fundamentals for gold now: a weakening dollar, runaway deficits and debt, a commercial real estate bubble just beginning to pop, rising unemployment, general distrust of printing money and fiat currencies, budget crises, China buying gold hand over fist, Indian wedding season, a growing global middle class, ease of investing in gold through etfs, a coming equity correction, and yes, eventually inflation (to mention just a few).

Markets don't form triple tops. Gold will run up to $1100 and then quickly to $1300 once it establishes itself over $1000 this fall and winter. Even the mainstream guys and gals at Citibank are calling for gold $2000 next year.

Why Leveraged and Derivatives-Based ETFs Are Dangerous

and I wrote 'a bank in Germany,' not, 'some bank in Germany' as you quoted me


On Jul 22 11:40 AM tb1975 wrote:

> It is Deutche Bank, Germany's largest bank...ever heard of too big
> too fail?I know exactly what is going on, and I'm making money at
> it.

Why Leveraged and Derivatives-Based ETFs Are Dangerous

"Your strategy goes against everything I said in the article."

That's why I started off my post with the words, "To be contrarian..."


On Jul 22 10:52 AM Living4Dividends wrote:

> your strategy goes against everything I said in the article. These
> funds are not prudent for the long term investor. It's an ETN and,
> it sounds like you arent sure of how the funds are being managed
> "some bank in germany"

Why Leveraged and Derivatives-Based ETFs Are Dangerous

It is Deutche Bank, Germany's largest bank...ever heard of too big too fail?I know exactly what is going on, and I'm making money at it.


On Jul 22 10:52 AM Living4Dividends wrote:

> your strategy goes against everything I said in the article. These
> funds are not prudent for the long term investor. It's an ETN and,
> it sounds like you arent sure of how the funds are being managed
> "some bank in germany"

Why Leveraged and Derivatives-Based ETFs Are Dangerous

To be contrarian, I like leveraged ETFs and ETNs. Yeah, you can't invest in them and not look for a week, but with which investment can you do that with?

I own DGP. I've owned it since December '08. It is a 2X long gold fund. While gold has risen 13% since I bought in, DGP has risen 23%. Not exactly double, but not much slippage either.

I invested in it to get more return than GLD. It has done that. I also did it for tax reasons- since it is an ETN, I can hold it for a year and pay 20% capital gains rather than the gold 'collectible' rate.

I understand the risks involved. I understand it has to do with derivatives and a bank in Germany. I understand it was designed for short term trading. I don't care. I keep a close eye on it and it is making me money. I have limit orders in to protect profits. It's all good.

Commodities: Another Bubble Forming?

I meant line of best fit, of course. my apologies for the typo.


On May 29 04:39 PM tb1975 wrote:

> also, in your gold chart, I don't think you even came close to the
> line of best fir. Nearly all of the data points (gold price) are
> above your line- maybe like 90% of the data is above your silly line

Commodities: Another Bubble Forming?

also, in your gold chart, I don't think you even came close to the line of best fir. Nearly all of the data points (gold price) are above your line- maybe like 90% of the data is above your silly line

Commodities: Another Bubble Forming?

gold was up last year, not down (+3%)

Gold Battle Lines Drawn at $1,000 - Again

Where's Rolex18Daytona or whatever his name was? He was always spouting short propaganda but seems to be MIA.

Gold, Inflation and the Dollar

here's one answer:

silver is actually eight times LESS scarce than gold


On May 21 01:07 PM Donald Ingram wrote:

> Mark,
> I was hoping for a prediction! Just a little one? Thoughts on where
> price is headed? These sort of stats are just a re-hash. How about
> a thought on where inflation is headed in the mid to long term? Is
> silver really a better buy than gold, because it's 100 times more
> scarce?
> Oh, so many questions and so few answers!