tb1975's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/281886/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/165361-gold-not-faring-well-against-inflation?source=feed#comment-708067 708067
When interest rates rise, when the fed stops printing money, when gold is consistently on the cover of major magazines, and when inflation busts over 5%, then it is time to start thinking about selling gold.
this bull has at least 5-10 years left in him.]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 22:35:56 -0400
When interest rates rise, when the fed stops printing money, when gold is consistently on the cover of major magazines, and when inflation busts over 5%, then it is time to start thinking about selling gold.
this bull has at least 5-10 years left in him.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163407-gold-and-silver-bubble-has-long-way-to-go?source=feed#comment-691802 691802

On Sep 25 09:08 PM KISSA wrote:

> FDIC keep their Bank Watchlist secret from the public and there is
> a reason to it because many US banks are already bankrupt and FDIC
> can't guarantee deposits anymore.
> We made this list free to all the public, take a look if your bank
> is on our Bank Run list too.
> www.nyse30.com/id45.html]]> Sat, 26 Sep 2009 07:58:53 -0400

On Sep 25 09:08 PM KISSA wrote:

> FDIC keep their Bank Watchlist secret from the public and there is
> a reason to it because many US banks are already bankrupt and FDIC
> can't guarantee deposits anymore.
> We made this list free to all the public, take a look if your bank
> is on our Bank Run list too.
> www.nyse30.com/id45.html]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162296-gold-the-moriarty-warning?source=feed#comment-691800 691800
Gold had a downturn last fall, but not of the magnitude equities did. To suggest miners are insulated from risk is just silly.


On Sep 19 11:28 AM The Recusant wrote:

> OK, first we can buy gold or silver ETFs, like GLD or SLV, but there's
> a catch. They could be worthless if a big crash were to occur and
> paper gold becomes worthless or if the promised bullion doesn't exist.
> But then there are EFTs that are considered safe with bullion stored
> outside the US system, like GTU, CEF, or SGOL. Or are they safe?
> Then we can buy ETF shorts on the dollar or ETNs on gold futures.
> Again, they are paper promises. Then there's foreign currency funds,
> scary, but maybe a safer route than paper ETFs and ETNs. And last
> but certainly not least, we have the actual bullion. Buying gold
> and silver to stuff away somewhere. But then Uncle Sam may confiscate
> the gold (or even the silver if they prefer). Is anything safe???
> Ah, yes...there's the miners!]]> Sat, 26 Sep 2009 07:52:36 -0400
Gold had a downturn last fall, but not of the magnitude equities did. To suggest miners are insulated from risk is just silly.


On Sep 19 11:28 AM The Recusant wrote:

> OK, first we can buy gold or silver ETFs, like GLD or SLV, but there's
> a catch. They could be worthless if a big crash were to occur and
> paper gold becomes worthless or if the promised bullion doesn't exist.
> But then there are EFTs that are considered safe with bullion stored
> outside the US system, like GTU, CEF, or SGOL. Or are they safe?
> Then we can buy ETF shorts on the dollar or ETNs on gold futures.
> Again, they are paper promises. Then there's foreign currency funds,
> scary, but maybe a safer route than paper ETFs and ETNs. And last
> but certainly not least, we have the actual bullion. Buying gold
> and silver to stuff away somewhere. But then Uncle Sam may confiscate
> the gold (or even the silver if they prefer). Is anything safe???
> Ah, yes...there's the miners!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162296-gold-the-moriarty-warning?source=feed#comment-682996 682996

On Sep 18 04:54 PM gjg49 wrote:

> you might want to check the tax code.
> page 66 of irs publication 550 indicates that the long term cap gains
> rate for collectibles (and this includes gold--gold, silver, and
> platinum are specifically noted) is 28%. that may be less than your
> tax rate on ordinary income, but the tax rate for long term gains
> should probably not be a consideration for whether you hold or sell
> gold.]]> Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:29:42 -0400

On Sep 18 04:54 PM gjg49 wrote:

> you might want to check the tax code.
> page 66 of irs publication 550 indicates that the long term cap gains
> rate for collectibles (and this includes gold--gold, silver, and
> platinum are specifically noted) is 28%. that may be less than your
> tax rate on ordinary income, but the tax rate for long term gains
> should probably not be a consideration for whether you hold or sell
> gold.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162296-gold-the-moriarty-warning?source=feed#comment-682861 682861
Are we printing less money? Is the dollar set to rally long term? Are interest rates high? etc, etc. When the answer to those questions is yes, that's when you sell gold.

If you are trying to time the market and jump in and out, good luck with that. I'll hold and pay long term gains tax rather than the harsh short term gains tax.]]> Fri, 18 Sep 2009 15:38:39 -0400
Are we printing less money? Is the dollar set to rally long term? Are interest rates high? etc, etc. When the answer to those questions is yes, that's when you sell gold.

If you are trying to time the market and jump in and out, good luck with that. I'll hold and pay long term gains tax rather than the harsh short term gains tax.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160747-no-reason-for-gold-to-surge-above-1-000?source=feed#comment-671267 671267
That being said, there are many solid fundamentals for gold now: a weakening dollar, runaway deficits and debt, a commercial real estate bubble just beginning to pop, rising unemployment, general distrust of printing money and fiat currencies, budget crises, China buying gold hand over fist, Indian wedding season, a growing global middle class, ease of investing in gold through etfs, a coming equity correction, and yes, eventually inflation (to mention just a few).

Markets don't form triple tops. Gold will run up to $1100 and then quickly to $1300 once it establishes itself over $1000 this fall and winter. Even the mainstream guys and gals at Citibank are calling for gold $2000 next year.]]> Thu, 10 Sep 2009 21:04:09 -0400
That being said, there are many solid fundamentals for gold now: a weakening dollar, runaway deficits and debt, a commercial real estate bubble just beginning to pop, rising unemployment, general distrust of printing money and fiat currencies, budget crises, China buying gold hand over fist, Indian wedding season, a growing global middle class, ease of investing in gold through etfs, a coming equity correction, and yes, eventually inflation (to mention just a few).

Markets don't form triple tops. Gold will run up to $1100 and then quickly to $1300 once it establishes itself over $1000 this fall and winter. Even the mainstream guys and gals at Citibank are calling for gold $2000 next year.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150365-why-leveraged-and-derivatives-based-etfs-are-dangerous?source=feed#comment-598106 598106

On Jul 22 11:40 AM tb1975 wrote:

> It is Deutche Bank, Germany's largest bank...ever heard of too big
> too fail?I know exactly what is going on, and I'm making money at
> it.]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 12:08:52 -0400

On Jul 22 11:40 AM tb1975 wrote:

> It is Deutche Bank, Germany's largest bank...ever heard of too big
> too fail?I know exactly what is going on, and I'm making money at
> it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150365-why-leveraged-and-derivatives-based-etfs-are-dangerous?source=feed#comment-598053 598053
That's why I started off my post with the words, "To be contrarian..."


On Jul 22 10:52 AM Living4Dividends wrote:

> your strategy goes against everything I said in the article. These
> funds are not prudent for the long term investor. It's an ETN and,
> it sounds like you arent sure of how the funds are being managed
> "some bank in germany"]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 11:42:44 -0400
That's why I started off my post with the words, "To be contrarian..."


On Jul 22 10:52 AM Living4Dividends wrote:

> your strategy goes against everything I said in the article. These
> funds are not prudent for the long term investor. It's an ETN and,
> it sounds like you arent sure of how the funds are being managed
> "some bank in germany"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150365-why-leveraged-and-derivatives-based-etfs-are-dangerous?source=feed#comment-598050 598050

On Jul 22 10:52 AM Living4Dividends wrote:

> your strategy goes against everything I said in the article. These
> funds are not prudent for the long term investor. It's an ETN and,
> it sounds like you arent sure of how the funds are being managed
> "some bank in germany"]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 11:40:33 -0400

On Jul 22 10:52 AM Living4Dividends wrote:

> your strategy goes against everything I said in the article. These
> funds are not prudent for the long term investor. It's an ETN and,
> it sounds like you arent sure of how the funds are being managed
> "some bank in germany"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150365-why-leveraged-and-derivatives-based-etfs-are-dangerous?source=feed#comment-597852 597852
I own DGP. I've owned it since December '08. It is a 2X long gold fund. While gold has risen 13% since I bought in, DGP has risen 23%. Not exactly double, but not much slippage either.

I invested in it to get more return than GLD. It has done that. I also did it for tax reasons- since it is an ETN, I can hold it for a year and pay 20% capital gains rather than the gold 'collectible' rate.

I understand the risks involved. I understand it has to do with derivatives and a bank in Germany. I understand it was designed for short term trading. I don't care. I keep a close eye on it and it is making me money. I have limit orders in to protect profits. It's all good.]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 09:58:45 -0400
I own DGP. I've owned it since December '08. It is a 2X long gold fund. While gold has risen 13% since I bought in, DGP has risen 23%. Not exactly double, but not much slippage either.

I invested in it to get more return than GLD. It has done that. I also did it for tax reasons- since it is an ETN, I can hold it for a year and pay 20% capital gains rather than the gold 'collectible' rate.

I understand the risks involved. I understand it has to do with derivatives and a bank in Germany. I understand it was designed for short term trading. I don't care. I keep a close eye on it and it is making me money. I have limit orders in to protect profits. It's all good.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140320-commodities-another-bubble-forming?source=feed#comment-523383 523383

On May 29 04:39 PM tb1975 wrote:

> also, in your gold chart, I don't think you even came close to the
> line of best fir. Nearly all of the data points (gold price) are
> above your line- maybe like 90% of the data is above your silly line]]> Fri, 29 May 2009 16:41:55 -0400

On May 29 04:39 PM tb1975 wrote:

> also, in your gold chart, I don't think you even came close to the
> line of best fir. Nearly all of the data points (gold price) are
> above your line- maybe like 90% of the data is above your silly line]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140320-commodities-another-bubble-forming?source=feed#comment-523379 523379 Fri, 29 May 2009 16:39:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140320-commodities-another-bubble-forming?source=feed#comment-523373 523373 Fri, 29 May 2009 16:36:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140005-gold-battle-lines-drawn-at-1-000-again?source=feed#comment-523348 523348 Fri, 29 May 2009 16:14:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/138918-gold-inflation-and-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-513659 513659
silver is actually eight times LESS scarce than gold


On May 21 01:07 PM Donald Ingram wrote:

> Mark,
> I was hoping for a prediction! Just a little one? Thoughts on where
> price is headed? These sort of stats are just a re-hash. How about
> a thought on where inflation is headed in the mid to long term? Is
> silver really a better buy than gold, because it's 100 times more
> scarce?
> Oh, so many questions and so few answers!]]> Thu, 21 May 2009 20:22:21 -0400
silver is actually eight times LESS scarce than gold


On May 21 01:07 PM Donald Ingram wrote:

> Mark,
> I was hoping for a prediction! Just a little one? Thoughts on where
> price is headed? These sort of stats are just a re-hash. How about
> a thought on where inflation is headed in the mid to long term? Is
> silver really a better buy than gold, because it's 100 times more
> scarce?
> Oh, so many questions and so few answers!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133201-mr-roubini-please-take-a-seat?source=feed#comment-478376 478376 Sun, 26 Apr 2009 20:14:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133201-mr-roubini-please-take-a-seat?source=feed#comment-478375 478375
I am actually starting to think Roubini is too optimistic- growth in 2010 and a U-shaped recovery? The more I read and understand this crisis, the more I think an L-shaped 'recovery' is likely.]]> Sun, 26 Apr 2009 20:13:13 -0400
I am actually starting to think Roubini is too optimistic- growth in 2010 and a U-shaped recovery? The more I read and understand this crisis, the more I think an L-shaped 'recovery' is likely.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133078-gold-up-sharply-as-the-bear-market-rally-falters?source=feed#comment-476992 476992
S&P, Dow down for the week.

Gold/silver up for the week.]]> Sat, 25 Apr 2009 10:58:13 -0400
S&P, Dow down for the week.

Gold/silver up for the week.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133078-gold-up-sharply-as-the-bear-market-rally-falters?source=feed#comment-476989 476989

On Apr 25 08:58 AM djk! wrote:

> come on, Peter. how about this? call a date on this end to the bear
> market rally or the big "suckers rally" as you like to call it. Oh,
> that's odd, you did not call it a "suckers" rally this time. or
> are you gonna play it like much of the tripe these days and just
> repeat the same mantra over and over until some correction happens
> and then say, see, I was right! so far it is 0 (that's a big zero)
> for 2. wrong on the suckers rally, wrong on the price of gold going
> to 1,000 this past week.
> hang in there, Peter. sometimes those who like to predict market
> action eventually get it right, not so much due to amazing powers
> of observation but just due to dumb luck. repeat after Peter, sucker
> rally over, gold to 1 grand. this is going to be a fun rut to watch
> and read about.]]> Sat, 25 Apr 2009 10:57:01 -0400

On Apr 25 08:58 AM djk! wrote:

> come on, Peter. how about this? call a date on this end to the bear
> market rally or the big "suckers rally" as you like to call it. Oh,
> that's odd, you did not call it a "suckers" rally this time. or
> are you gonna play it like much of the tripe these days and just
> repeat the same mantra over and over until some correction happens
> and then say, see, I was right! so far it is 0 (that's a big zero)
> for 2. wrong on the suckers rally, wrong on the price of gold going
> to 1,000 this past week.
> hang in there, Peter. sometimes those who like to predict market
> action eventually get it right, not so much due to amazing powers
> of observation but just due to dumb luck. repeat after Peter, sucker
> rally over, gold to 1 grand. this is going to be a fun rut to watch
> and read about.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133078-gold-up-sharply-as-the-bear-market-rally-falters?source=feed#comment-476987 476987

On Apr 25 02:54 AM blog.kerdos.com wrote:

> The title of this article is offensive to the intelligence of even
> a simpleton]]> Sat, 25 Apr 2009 10:54:56 -0400

On Apr 25 02:54 AM blog.kerdos.com wrote:

> The title of this article is offensive to the intelligence of even
> a simpleton]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132927-major-buy-signal-now-flashing-for-gold-stocks?source=feed#comment-476983 476983

On Apr 25 12:32 AM chux08 wrote:

> Your jeweler is smart....and he probably buys gold like the bankers
> do. And that's when it's going down. When you go to the supermarket
> do you look for and buy the highest priced tomatoes? Of course you
> don't. Then why in Hell would you buy gold when it 's going up??
> Your jeweler was busy buying when it was down around $870 or so just
> like the bankers were busy doing. Just like I was doing doing. Today
> what was I doing?? I WAS SELLING GOLD FOR A PROFIT unlike you who
> were standing around wondering if it's time to.....jump in?? My God...WAKE
> UP!! And go ask your wife how she buys groceries and then maybe let
> her go and buy your gold....]]> Sat, 25 Apr 2009 10:52:24 -0400

On Apr 25 12:32 AM chux08 wrote:

> Your jeweler is smart....and he probably buys gold like the bankers
> do. And that's when it's going down. When you go to the supermarket
> do you look for and buy the highest priced tomatoes? Of course you
> don't. Then why in Hell would you buy gold when it 's going up??
> Your jeweler was busy buying when it was down around $870 or so just
> like the bankers were busy doing. Just like I was doing doing. Today
> what was I doing?? I WAS SELLING GOLD FOR A PROFIT unlike you who
> were standing around wondering if it's time to.....jump in?? My God...WAKE
> UP!! And go ask your wife how she buys groceries and then maybe let
> her go and buy your gold....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132927-major-buy-signal-now-flashing-for-gold-stocks?source=feed#comment-476353 476353
Again, historically any number over 30 for the VIX is considered very high, not low.


On Apr 24 03:27 PM RiskReturnOptimizer wrote:

> My model tells me to buy gold stock (via GDX) when the following
> conditions are all lined up:
>
> 1. GLD trending up;
> 2. VIX high;
> 3. SPY low but trending up.
>
> Right now, GLD looks like it wants to go up, but 90 remains resistance.
> VIX is very low and going lower. SPY might reverse after getting
> to 870-900 resistance, and head towards 800. Not sure GDX will do
> well in this environment.]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 16:12:48 -0400
Again, historically any number over 30 for the VIX is considered very high, not low.


On Apr 24 03:27 PM RiskReturnOptimizer wrote:

> My model tells me to buy gold stock (via GDX) when the following
> conditions are all lined up:
>
> 1. GLD trending up;
> 2. VIX high;
> 3. SPY low but trending up.
>
> Right now, GLD looks like it wants to go up, but 90 remains resistance.
> VIX is very low and going lower. SPY might reverse after getting
> to 870-900 resistance, and head towards 800. Not sure GDX will do
> well in this environment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131197-currency-illusions-and-the-gold-price-suppression?source=feed#comment-465704 465704
Can you eat dollars? breathe them? drink them?

No, gold is money pure and simple- not food or air. But, you could buy a lot of food and drink with it.

The problem with dollars is that you will need more and more of them over the next few years to buy the same amount of food. You will likely need less and less gold to do the same.


On Apr 16 09:13 AM socrateazz wrote:

> Value of anything is dependant on the supply of that thing and the
> demand for that thing. Gold is shiny and has many pleasing charateristics.
> But when one wants to survive, can you eat it? breath it? or drink
> it? Does it help health? Does it continue a nutritional status?
> Gold may have outside pressures on its value. Can you name anything
> that does not? Manipulation of values of almost everything is one
> of the reasons so many bubble were created. The leaders of this
> great country believe in manipulation with a purpose of fairness
> and equality. What they do not understand is the the world naturally
> is pretty fair. Manipulation will only make things less fair. They
> do not know that. But they may realize it before they die. Then
> again, many past leaders did not. Long term investors are likely
> correct gold will raise. It will raise based on many perceptions
> of value. Short term gold could go anywhere based on changes in
> beliefs of those who buy and sell. Manipulation can only force so
> much price movement . And an opposite reaction will occur.]]> Thu, 16 Apr 2009 16:19:31 -0400
Can you eat dollars? breathe them? drink them?

No, gold is money pure and simple- not food or air. But, you could buy a lot of food and drink with it.

The problem with dollars is that you will need more and more of them over the next few years to buy the same amount of food. You will likely need less and less gold to do the same.


On Apr 16 09:13 AM socrateazz wrote:

> Value of anything is dependant on the supply of that thing and the
> demand for that thing. Gold is shiny and has many pleasing charateristics.
> But when one wants to survive, can you eat it? breath it? or drink
> it? Does it help health? Does it continue a nutritional status?
> Gold may have outside pressures on its value. Can you name anything
> that does not? Manipulation of values of almost everything is one
> of the reasons so many bubble were created. The leaders of this
> great country believe in manipulation with a purpose of fairness
> and equality. What they do not understand is the the world naturally
> is pretty fair. Manipulation will only make things less fair. They
> do not know that. But they may realize it before they die. Then
> again, many past leaders did not. Long term investors are likely
> correct gold will raise. It will raise based on many perceptions
> of value. Short term gold could go anywhere based on changes in
> beliefs of those who buy and sell. Manipulation can only force so
> much price movement . And an opposite reaction will occur.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129990-inflation-to-the-right-inflation-to-the-left?source=feed#comment-455648 455648
Wanting More,
Your reader]]> Tue, 07 Apr 2009 23:18:20 -0400
Wanting More,
Your reader]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129880-gold-silver-under-pressure?source=feed#comment-454646 454646 Tue, 07 Apr 2009 09:10:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127152-the-geithner-plan-faq?source=feed#comment-434991 434991
how much money will they have to print to turn a "profit"?]]> Sun, 22 Mar 2009 07:44:45 -0400
how much money will they have to print to turn a "profit"?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126718-why-i-m-starting-to-build-gold-now?source=feed#comment-434215 434215 Fri, 20 Mar 2009 22:20:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125552-is-gold-a-hold?source=feed#comment-423591 423591
Let's compare that to gold's performance, shall we?

People like to compare gold's performance to indices over long periods of time. Why? Gold is for extraordinary times like these, not for holding long term.

Buffet can keep his stocks that he has been buying in the last year- GE, USB, etc. They are all tanking. I'll keep my gold. I'll see him at the finish line in this depression and buy all of his penny stocks with my $2000 gold.]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 16:31:39 -0400
Let's compare that to gold's performance, shall we?

People like to compare gold's performance to indices over long periods of time. Why? Gold is for extraordinary times like these, not for holding long term.

Buffet can keep his stocks that he has been buying in the last year- GE, USB, etc. They are all tanking. I'll keep my gold. I'll see him at the finish line in this depression and buy all of his penny stocks with my $2000 gold.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123973-dow-3700-3-500-gold-300-oil-enough-already?source=feed#comment-414969 414969

On Mar 04 12:21 PM NanO49 wrote:

> The sky is falling, the sky is falling! ;)]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 17:33:58 -0500

On Mar 04 12:21 PM NanO49 wrote:

> The sky is falling, the sky is falling! ;)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124052-is-it-time-to-abandon-the-u-s-dollar-and-go-for-gold?source=feed#comment-413397 413397
Yes, certain sectors have lower prices (auto, oil), but we still technically have inflation, which is about to get way worse.
Prices may not jump quickly, but when the Fed begins buying its own treasurys, the dollar will devalue. It has to. This is inflation whether it shows up in prices promptly or not.


On Mar 04 04:54 PM CLH wrote:

> Buying gold during deflation makes no sense. As debt is eliminated
> the money supply goes down. It took 40 years after the last deflation
> for inflation to go up. Dont waste your money on gold which is grossly
> over priced.]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 18:15:51 -0500
Yes, certain sectors have lower prices (auto, oil), but we still technically have inflation, which is about to get way worse.
Prices may not jump quickly, but when the Fed begins buying its own treasurys, the dollar will devalue. It has to. This is inflation whether it shows up in prices promptly or not.


On Mar 04 04:54 PM CLH wrote:

> Buying gold during deflation makes no sense. As debt is eliminated
> the money supply goes down. It took 40 years after the last deflation
> for inflation to go up. Dont waste your money on gold which is grossly
> over priced.]]>