tb1975

Dow 3700, $3,500 Gold, $300 Oil - Enough Already

Yes, economically, it sure is.


On Mar 04 12:21 PM NanO49 wrote:

> The sky is falling, the sky is falling! ;)

Dow 3700, $3,500 Gold, $300 Oil - Enough Already

Would the author have thought $25 oil was an outrageous prediction when it was at $147 6 months ago?

How about $1000 gold when it was $300 a few years back?

How about Dow 6000 in September '07?

These predictions don't seem so absurd in hindsight, do they?

A Dow/Gold ratio of 1:1 is not out of the question. It happened in '81. It regularly gets down to 2:1 or 3:1 during garden variety recessions. You don't think $300 oil is a possibility? A time frame like 10 years might make more sense, but does it always make sense?

I remember a year and a half ago when people were making predictions about Dow 7000 or Dow 5000. People scoffed- and then promptly lost 55% of their retirement savings watching these predictions come true.

Market Death Spiral Continues

it's enslave, not inslave
it's indentured servants, not endentured survents
it's no one, not noone
it's unforgivable, not unforgiveable
it's unbelievable, not unbelieveable
it's administration, not administation

one or two errors and I might still be able to take you seriously, but the ignorance evidenced by your spelling skills belies the ignorance of your brain



On Mar 01 08:44 AM know nothing wrote:

> As long as the current administration continues on the path of socialism,
> and taxation with out representation, you can not expect to see any
> improvement.
>
> It's as if this administration is mad at anyone who worked for what
> they have, and didn't give their money to losers, so Obama is going
> to do that for us.
>
> The deficit spending under the Obama plan is sure to inslave the
> american people for generations to come. It's really sad!
>
> $401k's and IRA's people invested in the stock market will continue
> to lose their wealth, Obama is angry at the stock market, and the
> people who invested their hard earned dollars in the stock market.
> Now he is going to teach us all a lesson. He is going to teach us
> what it feels like to be poverty stricken. The american working man
> is about to experience slavery, of which noone ever thought possible,
> and our children and grand children will be endentured survents for
> life as well.
>
> 1 billion in interest payments, on a budget deficit, is unforgiveable.Unmanage...
> and unbelieveable! Whats more unbelieveable is he has only been in
> office for a little over 30 days and he is not done spending yet,
> he has almost a full 4 years left to spend.
>
> You hear about lottery winners just blowing millions of dollars until
> they loose all their winnings, well, This administation is acting
> like they won the lottery, and they won't be happy until they have
> wasted every dime, plus they are borrowing from other country's and
> blowing their money as well. Leaving the american people holding
> the bag.
>
>

Dow/Gold Ratio of 1:1 or 2:1 in Coming Years?

the author says:

"Thus the ratio is now just above 7:1. One ounce of gold can buy seven units of the DJIA."

the author means:
"Thus the ratio is now just above 7:1. One ounce of gold can buy one seventh of a unit of the DJIA."

When it gets closer to 3:1 I will sell my gold (DGP) and buy solid corporate bonds for a few years before going back to equities. No rush for me bc equities will be lower or sideways for a couple years.

A Depression and Recovery in Internet Time

1. dollar down .6% today, gold up $28 (due to massive gov't deficit spending on Citi and B of Am)

2. gold up 8 straight years

3. during the deflation of 2008, gold up 4%

4. the reports of gold's death have been greatly exaggerated

2009 Economic Forecasts Ignore Demographic Shift

"There is not enough data for any pundit to accurately forecast what the US economy will look like on December 31, 2009. In 2008, pretty much all forecasters were wrong in either events or timing or both."

Maybe pretty much all were wrong- all except for Nouriel Roubini. He certainly seems to have enough data to make accurate prediction after accurate prediction after accurate prediction.

BTW, he sees a 5% cumulative fall in GDP from peak to trough. And he has plenty of data to back it up. visit his website rgemonitor.com if you'd like to check it out.