tb1975

Is Gold a Hold?

The quote from Buffet is funny. How has he done in the last year? Hasn't his BRK-A shares lost about half their value? Aren't his company's profits down 90+%?

Let's compare that to gold's performance, shall we?

People like to compare gold's performance to indices over long periods of time. Why? Gold is for extraordinary times like these, not for holding long term.

Buffet can keep his stocks that he has been buying in the last year- GE, USB, etc. They are all tanking. I'll keep my gold. I'll see him at the finish line in this depression and buy all of his penny stocks with my $2000 gold.

Is It Time to Abandon the U.S. Dollar and Go for Gold?

Where's the deflation? The numbers (CPI and core CPI) are still positive YOY. Has food gone down in price? Movies? Restaurants? Electricity and Water? Etc.

Yes, certain sectors have lower prices (auto, oil), but we still technically have inflation, which is about to get way worse.
Prices may not jump quickly, but when the Fed begins buying its own treasurys, the dollar will devalue. It has to. This is inflation whether it shows up in prices promptly or not.


On Mar 04 04:54 PM CLH wrote:

> Buying gold during deflation makes no sense. As debt is eliminated
> the money supply goes down. It took 40 years after the last deflation
> for inflation to go up. Dont waste your money on gold which is grossly
> over priced.

Gold: The Only Remaining Bubble?

no, it doesn't...parabolas don't consolidate for 6 months before heading higher again


On Feb 18 02:16 PM Russell Upsomgrubb wrote:

> The chart sure looks like the parabolic one of oil at its high.

12 Reasons to Short Gold

What's different this time than last March? Ummmm....the USD index is 85.5 now and 71 then. That seems to be quite different.

Also, if you take a close look at the numbers, investment demand is more than making up for lessened jewelry demand.

Finally, no second half recovery. This is a depression that will take years to play out. Expect gov't to keep spending hand over fist money that we don't have. Eventually, the dollar will dive and hard assets will rise in comparison rapidly.

Gold is Overbought: Time to Short Barrick?

Barrick up 6.2% today...how's that shorting going?

Will Gold Break Its Downtrend?

If gold goes up, bullish. If it goes down, bearish. I get it.

U.S. Dollar Strength and Implications for Gold

I meant half = $1.8 trillion, not $1.8 billion

U.S. Dollar Strength and Implications for Gold

The author writes yet another flagrant misquote of Roubini. Roubini DID NOT say that the US banks are in a $3.6 Trillion hole. He said they were on the hook for half ($1.8 billion) of the total $3.6 Trillion. Here is the text from Roubini's website:

"Jan 20 Roubini/Parisi: Assuming a further 20% fall in house prices and unemployment peaking at 9%, we project total loan losses to amount to $1.6T out of $12.4T loans outstanding. Of these $1.6T loan losses, about $1.1T accrue to U.S. banks and brokers.
# Mark-to-market prices as of December imply around $2T in writedowns on $10.8T U.S. originated securities outstanding. Flow of funds data show that 40% of U.S. originated securities are held abroad. U.S. banks' share of writedowns is about 30-35%, or $600-700bn for U.S. banks/brokers according to weights in IMF GFSR October 2008, table 1.1
# Total loan and securities losses amount to $3.6T, half of which accrue to the U.S. banking system, or $1.8T."
from rgemonitor.com

If you are going to quote (or cite) somebody, do it right. While this still makes for an insolvent banking system ($1.8 T in liabilities vs. $1.4 T in assets), doesn't this make the case for more Fed fiat money and monetization of that debt?

Sounds good for gold to me. I'll stick with my gold that was up 4% last year and holding steady this year versus any other investment. The author can keep buying dollars- see you at the finish line.

Despite Economic Headwinds, Gold Will Outperform

Roubini is calling for stag-DEflation, making it clear that he does NOT believe it will be stagflation. See for yourself on his website:

rgemonitor.com


On Jan 13 09:26 PM Lin wrote:

> MGA
>
> Noriel Roubini , a wise economist , that called the current collapse
> 2 years ago , Is now saying , " He sees stagflation " an absolute
> nightmere for the Fed as this entails Stag , no growth , along with
> flation , high inflation in things like food + energy .