fotokemist's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/282405/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/180423-surprise-people-don-t-trust-government-data?source=feed#comment-828646 828646
I want to add my thanks for your fine work.

I share the widespread frustration about the lack of reliability in data presented, whether from the government, the MBA, etc.

I am an Analytical Chemist by training. While not an expert in statistical analysis, I have spent a fair number of years dealing with calibration, distinguishing signal from random noise, bias, etc.

Using the speedometer on my trusty old Jeep with over-sized tires as an example, I have measured the difference between the indicated distance by the odometer between a large number of mileposts on Interstate highways and their indicated mileage difference to learn that the oversized tires case a negative 2.7% bias in my odometer and hence, the speedometer. That is, the speedometer indicates a speed 2.7% lower than actual. Once GPS's were available, I was able to cross-calibrate and confirm my other measurements. (I did say trusty OLD Jeep.) In a similar manner, the BLS folks should be able to determine the relationship between their birth/death model and the slope of the tax receipts or some other readily available means to check the calibration.

My point here is that the folks over at shadowstats.com seem to have figured out how to provide numbers that are much more in keeping with the reality that many of us see every day than our BLS/BEA colleagues provide. I have a great deal of confidence that the BLS staff has far better statisticians than me in their employ. Therefore, I am driven to the conclusion that the publication of biased results is a deliberate, informed choice on somebody's part. I do not distinguish between the deliberate use of a biased measurement tool and lying.

This response is not intended to detract in any way from your fine analysis.

Have a joyous New Year]]> Thu, 31 Dec 2009 20:43:41 -0500
I want to add my thanks for your fine work.

I share the widespread frustration about the lack of reliability in data presented, whether from the government, the MBA, etc.

I am an Analytical Chemist by training. While not an expert in statistical analysis, I have spent a fair number of years dealing with calibration, distinguishing signal from random noise, bias, etc.

Using the speedometer on my trusty old Jeep with over-sized tires as an example, I have measured the difference between the indicated distance by the odometer between a large number of mileposts on Interstate highways and their indicated mileage difference to learn that the oversized tires case a negative 2.7% bias in my odometer and hence, the speedometer. That is, the speedometer indicates a speed 2.7% lower than actual. Once GPS's were available, I was able to cross-calibrate and confirm my other measurements. (I did say trusty OLD Jeep.) In a similar manner, the BLS folks should be able to determine the relationship between their birth/death model and the slope of the tax receipts or some other readily available means to check the calibration.

My point here is that the folks over at shadowstats.com seem to have figured out how to provide numbers that are much more in keeping with the reality that many of us see every day than our BLS/BEA colleagues provide. I have a great deal of confidence that the BLS staff has far better statisticians than me in their employ. Therefore, I am driven to the conclusion that the publication of biased results is a deliberate, informed choice on somebody's part. I do not distinguish between the deliberate use of a biased measurement tool and lying.

This response is not intended to detract in any way from your fine analysis.

Have a joyous New Year]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173633-conspicuous-correlation-october-2009-discretionary-retail-sales-and-u-s-home-prices?source=feed#comment-763596 763596 Tue, 17 Nov 2009 09:39:22 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173617-is-goldman-sachs-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine-or-just-no-longer-relevant?source=feed#comment-763321 763321
Could it be one of the purposes of this rally is to give TPTB an opportunity to minimize their losses when the losses have to be taken?]]> Tue, 17 Nov 2009 08:24:36 -0500
Could it be one of the purposes of this rally is to give TPTB an opportunity to minimize their losses when the losses have to be taken?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173511-pbgc-is-not-only-underwater-it-s-drowning?source=feed#comment-762329 762329
I am a novice at this game (~13 months.) However, I have come to the conclusion that fractional reserve banking requires the entire financial system become a con game, since everybody cannot withdraw their money at the same time.

The con game seems to have spread to all asset classes except physical gold and silver. I watch with horror and disgust as my relatives in their 70s and 80s begin to consume their capital where they could live on the interest payments a few years ago.

Such observations lead me to a loss of confidence not only in our financial system, but our entire political and social system. I pray that leaders with integrity will rise and chart a course through the problems we cannot avoid. Otherwise, I have had a good life and really cannot complain if my remaining years are spent in a failed society.]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 13:36:58 -0500
I am a novice at this game (~13 months.) However, I have come to the conclusion that fractional reserve banking requires the entire financial system become a con game, since everybody cannot withdraw their money at the same time.

The con game seems to have spread to all asset classes except physical gold and silver. I watch with horror and disgust as my relatives in their 70s and 80s begin to consume their capital where they could live on the interest payments a few years ago.

Such observations lead me to a loss of confidence not only in our financial system, but our entire political and social system. I pray that leaders with integrity will rise and chart a course through the problems we cannot avoid. Otherwise, I have had a good life and really cannot complain if my remaining years are spent in a failed society.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168798-why-is-zero-hedge-claiming-fed-intervention-in-equities-markets?source=feed#comment-732985 732985 Tue, 27 Oct 2009 18:21:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/167859-big-banks-the-consensus-is-cracking?source=feed#comment-725556 725556
1) All shareholders and bondholders have lost there entire investment prior to any taxpayer money being used in a bailout.

2) All Officers and Directors are forced to return any compensation received during their tenure with interest at the average 30-year T-Bond rate before any taxpayer money is used in a bailout. This would include any O/D that have left the company in the past five years.]]> Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:05:32 -0400
1) All shareholders and bondholders have lost there entire investment prior to any taxpayer money being used in a bailout.

2) All Officers and Directors are forced to return any compensation received during their tenure with interest at the average 30-year T-Bond rate before any taxpayer money is used in a bailout. This would include any O/D that have left the company in the past five years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166985-bofa-and-stating-the-obvious-about-bank-profits?source=feed#comment-718824 718824
The stock valuation is a separate matter. I don't know how one can justify any price for the stock given the unknown real value of their assets (in other words, how long will "profits" be consummed as they adjust reserves to realize the losses being ignored by current accounting practices.) Then one reads reports (rumors?) of vast off-balance sheet loses that will have to be realized someday, perhaps as early as next year. What happens to BOA stock price if rising oil prices (in $) force the Fed to support the $? What if either increasing energy costs or rising interest rates (to support the $ and avoid the rising energy costs) leads to a W recovery?

I have a hard time reconciling shipping being down 17% YoY, consummer credit contracting at historic levels, retail sales being down 5 - 10% YoY in reporting retailers, and consummer consumption being an increasing fraction of our GDP with the idea that we are seeing a recovery.]]> Sat, 17 Oct 2009 18:01:19 -0400
The stock valuation is a separate matter. I don't know how one can justify any price for the stock given the unknown real value of their assets (in other words, how long will "profits" be consummed as they adjust reserves to realize the losses being ignored by current accounting practices.) Then one reads reports (rumors?) of vast off-balance sheet loses that will have to be realized someday, perhaps as early as next year. What happens to BOA stock price if rising oil prices (in $) force the Fed to support the $? What if either increasing energy costs or rising interest rates (to support the $ and avoid the rising energy costs) leads to a W recovery?

I have a hard time reconciling shipping being down 17% YoY, consummer credit contracting at historic levels, retail sales being down 5 - 10% YoY in reporting retailers, and consummer consumption being an increasing fraction of our GDP with the idea that we are seeing a recovery.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166996-bank-of-america-struggles-behind-struggles-ahead?source=feed#comment-718781 718781 Sat, 17 Oct 2009 16:49:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/167018-inverse-correlation-of-stocks-vs-dollar-at-a-glance?source=feed#comment-718575 718575 stockcharts.com for a three year lookback. If you enter $USD:$SPX (ratio of dollar index divided by SP500 closing) in the symbol field and select 3 years for the range, you will see that the ratio reached a minimum of ~ 0.050 in early Nov 2007 and peaked at a value of ~ 0.130 in early March 2009.

Other than volatility, the $USD:$SPX ratio chart is very similar to the simple $USD chart over the past three years. So, are we all effectively FX traders?]]> Sat, 17 Oct 2009 12:34:32 -0400 stockcharts.com for a three year lookback. If you enter $USD:$SPX (ratio of dollar index divided by SP500 closing) in the symbol field and select 3 years for the range, you will see that the ratio reached a minimum of ~ 0.050 in early Nov 2007 and peaked at a value of ~ 0.130 in early March 2009.

Other than volatility, the $USD:$SPX ratio chart is very similar to the simple $USD chart over the past three years. So, are we all effectively FX traders?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/428250-michael-clark/31686-where-is-obama-s-change-now?source=feed#comment-716428 716428 Thu, 15 Oct 2009 12:03:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/165413-does-economic-data-on-debt-support-medium-term-bullishness?source=feed#comment-709019 709019 Thu, 08 Oct 2009 13:46:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/165529-jobless-claims-fall-to-lowest-level-in-37-weeks?source=feed#comment-708939 708939 Thu, 08 Oct 2009 13:20:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/33874?source=feed#comment-708926 708926 Thu, 08 Oct 2009 13:10:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/33821?source=feed#comment-707607 707607 Wed, 07 Oct 2009 17:12:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163767-should-you-invest-in-banking-stocks?source=feed#comment-695923 695923
Before buying BAC or C, you might want to estimate the losses they face, then calculate how much time at what profit level will be required for them to earn their way out of their mess.

I am more familiar with BAC since they happen to be headquartered in the very state where I live. They have serious, and largely unrecognized, exposure to 2nd mortgage, sorry HELOC, in California. You might want to check the change in price of CA RE to estimate the true value of those loans. They also have significant exposure to CRE. Been to a mall lately? Checked on the hotel industry lately? Then we should consider off balance sheet SIVs. I have read credible estimates that BAC has over 1$T of notional exposure and perhaps as high a $30T. What % of those chickens need to come home to roost to take all earnings for the remainder of my life? (Currently estimated to be 23.6 years by some insurance company web site) Then there are the lawsuits. I read today that some group of hedge funds have filed a multi-billion $ lawsuit against BAC on the basis that they were mislead. As a minor sideshow, there is the very real possibility that the BAC CEO and various board members face active prison sentences for the ML fiasco.

Are you following the growing anger in middle class America to this rip-off. Go to C-Span and look at the size of the crowds in DC in 9/12. I have talked to blue collar friends and relatives recently. Any congresscritter voting to continue bailout of the finance industry does so with the near certainty of losing the next election, at least in my neck of the woods, Where will the TBTF boys be without a FED backstop?

All-in-all, betting against the NJ mafia seems like a better idea than buying BAC to me.]]> Tue, 29 Sep 2009 16:31:54 -0400
Before buying BAC or C, you might want to estimate the losses they face, then calculate how much time at what profit level will be required for them to earn their way out of their mess.

I am more familiar with BAC since they happen to be headquartered in the very state where I live. They have serious, and largely unrecognized, exposure to 2nd mortgage, sorry HELOC, in California. You might want to check the change in price of CA RE to estimate the true value of those loans. They also have significant exposure to CRE. Been to a mall lately? Checked on the hotel industry lately? Then we should consider off balance sheet SIVs. I have read credible estimates that BAC has over 1$T of notional exposure and perhaps as high a $30T. What % of those chickens need to come home to roost to take all earnings for the remainder of my life? (Currently estimated to be 23.6 years by some insurance company web site) Then there are the lawsuits. I read today that some group of hedge funds have filed a multi-billion $ lawsuit against BAC on the basis that they were mislead. As a minor sideshow, there is the very real possibility that the BAC CEO and various board members face active prison sentences for the ML fiasco.

Are you following the growing anger in middle class America to this rip-off. Go to C-Span and look at the size of the crowds in DC in 9/12. I have talked to blue collar friends and relatives recently. Any congresscritter voting to continue bailout of the finance industry does so with the near certainty of losing the next election, at least in my neck of the woods, Where will the TBTF boys be without a FED backstop?

All-in-all, betting against the NJ mafia seems like a better idea than buying BAC to me.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163424-especially-bad-housing-numbers-and-taxpayers-as-mouse-models?source=feed#comment-694504 694504
The ones I talked with had a surprisingly clear understanding of the economic situation, lack of government credibility re: the state of the economy, the role of TBTF banks with the collaboration of the FED and Treasury in screwing them all out of a lot of money, etc.

Perhaps the best long term hope for the FED is a credible audit. At the end of the day, government must always rely on the consent of the governed. Unless we are prepared to use the tactics employed by the Romans, Nazi's, etc. to obtain that consent, someone should start paying attention to the rising frustration and anger of J6P. ]]> Mon, 28 Sep 2009 18:07:11 -0400
The ones I talked with had a surprisingly clear understanding of the economic situation, lack of government credibility re: the state of the economy, the role of TBTF banks with the collaboration of the FED and Treasury in screwing them all out of a lot of money, etc.

Perhaps the best long term hope for the FED is a credible audit. At the end of the day, government must always rely on the consent of the governed. Unless we are prepared to use the tactics employed by the Romans, Nazi's, etc. to obtain that consent, someone should start paying attention to the rising frustration and anger of J6P. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161808-the-white-house-vs-henry-paulson?source=feed#comment-680815 680815 And why would a Goldman Sachs CEO need to trouble himself with the POTUS?]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 12:15:20 -0400 And why would a Goldman Sachs CEO need to trouble himself with the POTUS?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161101-insider-selling-may-simply-be-profit-taking?source=feed#comment-673242 673242
To remind you, I am a simple country chemist trying to make a living down here in the big city. Please pardon my naivety.

Do you not find the lack of insider buying at least as troubling as the insider selling?

I agree with you and those who point out there can be many reasons to sell. The universe of reasons to buy is much smaller. Apparently few are finding any reason in the present environment.

untrusting mentioned the dollar being allowed to continue falling as a less likely alternative to a significant correction in the stock market. I agree with his conclusion from a purely political perspective.

For example, a friend has pointed out significant a price increase (~20%) in a Japanese camera in the past two months. She was shocked and not happy. Import prices were up 2% in the data released last week. The dollar has fallen significantly since the end of the sampling period, suggesting the import price increases will continue. I suspect the political price of a dollar free fall will prove unacceptable resulting in FED action to support the dollar and hence cause a substantial down leg in the market in the near future.]]> Sat, 12 Sep 2009 09:40:36 -0400
To remind you, I am a simple country chemist trying to make a living down here in the big city. Please pardon my naivety.

Do you not find the lack of insider buying at least as troubling as the insider selling?

I agree with you and those who point out there can be many reasons to sell. The universe of reasons to buy is much smaller. Apparently few are finding any reason in the present environment.

untrusting mentioned the dollar being allowed to continue falling as a less likely alternative to a significant correction in the stock market. I agree with his conclusion from a purely political perspective.

For example, a friend has pointed out significant a price increase (~20%) in a Japanese camera in the past two months. She was shocked and not happy. Import prices were up 2% in the data released last week. The dollar has fallen significantly since the end of the sampling period, suggesting the import price increases will continue. I suspect the political price of a dollar free fall will prove unacceptable resulting in FED action to support the dollar and hence cause a substantial down leg in the market in the near future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159200-is-a-crash-impending?source=feed#comment-665095 665095
Considering for the moment there is some basis for all the assertions that the TBTF have trillions of off-balance sheet or otherwise unrecognized losses, will these not consume any profits for a very long time?

One hypothesis that I cannot rule out is that TPTB are reducing their exposure in the TBTF prior to nationalization. Thoughts?]]> Mon, 07 Sep 2009 11:10:11 -0400
Considering for the moment there is some basis for all the assertions that the TBTF have trillions of off-balance sheet or otherwise unrecognized losses, will these not consume any profits for a very long time?

One hypothesis that I cannot rule out is that TPTB are reducing their exposure in the TBTF prior to nationalization. Thoughts?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160181-what-if-it-is-a-v-recovery?source=feed#comment-664969 664969
If memory serves, Steve posted something in February or March from ECRI predicting improving business conditions by summer (pardon my laziness for not digging this up.) My point is that somewhere there is an ECRI report from six months ago for each month.

Could one of you folks much more experienced than me do an assessment of how they have been doing recently?

I am among the group that is concerned that the level of government interference compared to earlier events may have had an adverse effect on their models. Given my poor understanding of cause and effect in the current environment, any knowledge of their models, etc., I would find some current "calibration data" very helpful.

Steve, thanks again for all your effort.]]> Mon, 07 Sep 2009 09:16:32 -0400
If memory serves, Steve posted something in February or March from ECRI predicting improving business conditions by summer (pardon my laziness for not digging this up.) My point is that somewhere there is an ECRI report from six months ago for each month.

Could one of you folks much more experienced than me do an assessment of how they have been doing recently?

I am among the group that is concerned that the level of government interference compared to earlier events may have had an adverse effect on their models. Given my poor understanding of cause and effect in the current environment, any knowledge of their models, etc., I would find some current "calibration data" very helpful.

Steve, thanks again for all your effort.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158966-major-banks-now-much-too-big-to-fail?source=feed#comment-653839 653839
Why does "Too Big To Fail" seem to mean "Too Big for Share/Bond Holders to Lose Their Investments"? If we, the taxpayers, are acting as debtors in possession, why don't we simply take possession, fire the management, hire new management to reorganize our business, then do an IPO?]]> Sun, 30 Aug 2009 17:35:30 -0400
Why does "Too Big To Fail" seem to mean "Too Big for Share/Bond Holders to Lose Their Investments"? If we, the taxpayers, are acting as debtors in possession, why don't we simply take possession, fire the management, hire new management to reorganize our business, then do an IPO?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158977-is-there-22-less-volume-behind-the-current-s-p-rally?source=feed#comment-653820 653820 Sun, 30 Aug 2009 17:23:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/157545-how-is-china-s-export-driven-economy-booming?source=feed#comment-641006 641006
From Bloomberg:

"Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings Ltd., whose billionaire founder is being detained for alleged share manipulation, said first-half profit fell 50 percent, after Chinese consumers avoided spending on big-ticket products. "

I am a simple country chemist trying to make a living down here in the big city. Either the Chinese consumers are spending money at an accelerated rate or they are not.

I clearly remember thinking how clever BAC was in reducing their China Construction Bank exposure earlier this year when reading a different Bloomberg article reporting their much poorer performance and cautious outlook earlier this week. When I returned to copy the article I find the headline has changed to "...Beats Forecasts..." and the poor YOY comparison is no where to be found. This observation suggests to me that our news may be manipulated to convey a "better than expected" message.

I have also read a number of credible posts indicating that China's accounting practices are, to say the least, somewhat different than what we may use. Alledged examples include realizing as a contribution to GDP something that has been produced whether or not there is a customer, adding the value of the bridge construction alluded to above to GDP at the time of appropriation rather than the completion of the bridge, etc. I have no independent means to validate these allegations. I put it into my "Possible reasons that things may be too good to be true" file.

An earlier post suggested that the Chinese government is ran by scientists and engineers and, as a consequence, we can expect better investment decisions to be made. This assumption is contradicted by more than three decades of my personal experience including Fortune 100 companies and small businesses in the US, Mitsubishi core group companies in Japan and large US government organizations including the NIH and the EPA. Review the history of a few typical self-funded biotech start ups, if you doubt.

Should any suffer under the delusion that scientists and engineers are not subject to corruption similar to what we find in our political, financial, legal, etc. professions, I suggest you do a Google search on GLP history, CLIA history, polywater, and cold fusion as a few examples. Oh, I almost forgot the Korean cloning episode a couple of years ago. We spend large sums of money each year auditing labs precisely because scientists cannot be trusted to produce valid data when left to our own devices. Therefore, I do not buy the argument that having scientists and engineers in charge of the government means that better decisions will be made. And I say this as a scientist.

As a scientist, I have been trained that any theory (or "scientific law" which is simply a theory with a lot of experience) must be modified or discarded if it fails to explain even one fact. Moreover, all facts must be reproducible by an independent agency, ideally, me. In this particular case, we have the assertions of the Chinese government in conflict with a published explanation given for poor corporate results. Both are suspect.

I read reports of assertions by the Chinese government that their GDP is growing at ~8%/year. Treating this assertion as a hypothesis (that is, a larval stage theory), it fails to explain news such as the opening paragraph in this message, the change in the BDI, the import numbers reported by the US government, the change in traffic at the LA and Long Beach ports, etc. I can think of no reason to give assertions by the Chinese government as much credibility as I give US government reports, which I suspect to be highly manipulated to inflate our impression of the true economic situation. Therefore, this hypothesis remains unproven at best and more likely than not false based upon the weight of the evidence.

A basic issue confronting both (all) peoples is government corruption. In my experience, poor decisions are far more often the consequence of self-interest than ignorance or intellectual deficiency. That is, corruption.

Until we citizens take sufficient action to reduce corruption, I do not believe anything else is really going to change. Nor can I find any reason to believe Chinese leaders are less corrupt than ours in the US. I do recognize that the US corruption is a much more destructive force in the world at the moment.

So, what can I conclude?

(1) My information is incomplete and of dubious quality
(2) All conclusions should be viewed as tentative
(3) The "Chinese Miracle" is more likely than not to be "too good to be true"
]]> Sat, 22 Aug 2009 12:05:25 -0400
From Bloomberg:

"Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings Ltd., whose billionaire founder is being detained for alleged share manipulation, said first-half profit fell 50 percent, after Chinese consumers avoided spending on big-ticket products. "

I am a simple country chemist trying to make a living down here in the big city. Either the Chinese consumers are spending money at an accelerated rate or they are not.

I clearly remember thinking how clever BAC was in reducing their China Construction Bank exposure earlier this year when reading a different Bloomberg article reporting their much poorer performance and cautious outlook earlier this week. When I returned to copy the article I find the headline has changed to "...Beats Forecasts..." and the poor YOY comparison is no where to be found. This observation suggests to me that our news may be manipulated to convey a "better than expected" message.

I have also read a number of credible posts indicating that China's accounting practices are, to say the least, somewhat different than what we may use. Alledged examples include realizing as a contribution to GDP something that has been produced whether or not there is a customer, adding the value of the bridge construction alluded to above to GDP at the time of appropriation rather than the completion of the bridge, etc. I have no independent means to validate these allegations. I put it into my "Possible reasons that things may be too good to be true" file.

An earlier post suggested that the Chinese government is ran by scientists and engineers and, as a consequence, we can expect better investment decisions to be made. This assumption is contradicted by more than three decades of my personal experience including Fortune 100 companies and small businesses in the US, Mitsubishi core group companies in Japan and large US government organizations including the NIH and the EPA. Review the history of a few typical self-funded biotech start ups, if you doubt.

Should any suffer under the delusion that scientists and engineers are not subject to corruption similar to what we find in our political, financial, legal, etc. professions, I suggest you do a Google search on GLP history, CLIA history, polywater, and cold fusion as a few examples. Oh, I almost forgot the Korean cloning episode a couple of years ago. We spend large sums of money each year auditing labs precisely because scientists cannot be trusted to produce valid data when left to our own devices. Therefore, I do not buy the argument that having scientists and engineers in charge of the government means that better decisions will be made. And I say this as a scientist.

As a scientist, I have been trained that any theory (or "scientific law" which is simply a theory with a lot of experience) must be modified or discarded if it fails to explain even one fact. Moreover, all facts must be reproducible by an independent agency, ideally, me. In this particular case, we have the assertions of the Chinese government in conflict with a published explanation given for poor corporate results. Both are suspect.

I read reports of assertions by the Chinese government that their GDP is growing at ~8%/year. Treating this assertion as a hypothesis (that is, a larval stage theory), it fails to explain news such as the opening paragraph in this message, the change in the BDI, the import numbers reported by the US government, the change in traffic at the LA and Long Beach ports, etc. I can think of no reason to give assertions by the Chinese government as much credibility as I give US government reports, which I suspect to be highly manipulated to inflate our impression of the true economic situation. Therefore, this hypothesis remains unproven at best and more likely than not false based upon the weight of the evidence.

A basic issue confronting both (all) peoples is government corruption. In my experience, poor decisions are far more often the consequence of self-interest than ignorance or intellectual deficiency. That is, corruption.

Until we citizens take sufficient action to reduce corruption, I do not believe anything else is really going to change. Nor can I find any reason to believe Chinese leaders are less corrupt than ours in the US. I do recognize that the US corruption is a much more destructive force in the world at the moment.

So, what can I conclude?

(1) My information is incomplete and of dubious quality
(2) All conclusions should be viewed as tentative
(3) The "Chinese Miracle" is more likely than not to be "too good to be true"
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/29072?source=feed#comment-605400 605400 Tue, 28 Jul 2009 14:43:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/142456-margin-debt-stabilized-but-not-predictive?source=feed#comment-540970 540970
Increasing interest rates are unlikely to lead to higher margin debt useage either.]]> Wed, 10 Jun 2009 15:09:30 -0400
Increasing interest rates are unlikely to lead to higher margin debt useage either.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141800-bear-case-substantially-outweighing-in-short-term?source=feed#comment-536836 536836 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 08:52:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/141645-trading-costs-and-etfs-faz-and-fas?source=feed#comment-535225 535225 Sat, 06 Jun 2009 22:13:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140688-china-s-statements-about-u-s-debt-are-overblown?source=feed#comment-528019 528019 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 10:43:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140493-private-sector-employment-picture-is-shrinking?source=feed#comment-525863 525863 Sun, 31 May 2009 22:57:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/139875-is-program-trading-especially-slp-affecting-trade-in-the-stock-market?source=feed#comment-522547 522547 Fri, 29 May 2009 07:00:51 -0400