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50/50 Portfolio; Dec 2016 YOC 10.0% about 0? months before retirement, dividends at 72% of my gross employment income. I created a High Yield Investment dividend generator that contains a 50% weighting between agency mortgage REITs and BDCs.
**** Home of the POT (Portfolio Online Tracking) tool.
My current investment method started January 2014 to concentrate on high yield equities that put more importance on income and less on capital appreciation. Investment purchase is based on each individual stock generating a minimum dividend per year. As long as stocks are generating income to meet or exceed my minimum dividend they will not be added too or removed. Currently all dividends are reinvested back into stocks that require their dividends to be increased to meet my minimum yearly dividend. We will see how this works over the years.
1) The REIT sector consists of residential and commercial property investments. What better way to invest in hundreds of properties without actually owing the physical property.
2) The BDC are Business Development Companies that invest in hundreds of businesses that create products and employment opportunities. Here again the BDC does all the research to lend to businesses and the investor does not have to actually own the physical business.
3) The investment selection is based on this principle; BDCs outperform when markets are going up (positive correlation), and mREITs, outperform when markets are going down (negative correlation). This is based on a research study performed by Wells Fargo titled “The 50/50 Portfolio, Milton Friedman’s Only “Free” Lunch. And runs through an analysis in demonstrating how combining BDCs and Agency mREITs leads to sustainable long-term alpha throughout cycles.
4) Capital gain does not apply to my investment method since this implies the anticipation of buy and hope for price increase in order to sell at a profit. I have already stated the HYBRID method holds investments based on cost basis and dividends per share as the method of yearly appreciation.
5) A bird in the hand is worth 10 in a bush, applies to this investment style. The return I get on my investment is what counts toward the recapture of my initial investment cost. I can calculate how many years it will take before my initial cost will be repaid and that investment now becomes perpetual income. I’m not a trader, just a buy, hold and collector (dividends * shares). I can’t count on capital appreciation since all investments will increase and decrease in any market cycle. Dividends I can count on as payment for investment risk that accumulates over time.
6) Update 20140612, Portfolio Plan; Build a portfolio that generates income 150% of minimum required. Example I need 10K from 30 stocks made up of REITs and BDCs. Diversification is already built into each stock because each one contains hundreds of properties and business, so 30 stocks is plenty. Now to generate 10K minimum income I will establish a 50% margin of error (or income default). So to get 10K minimum I will need 15K of income (10K * 1.5). This means each stock is required to generate at least $500/yr each. I can withstand a 33% hit in the dividends and still meet my 10K minimum requirement. That is 10 stocks can go to zero and the remaining 20 will create my minimum 10K.
7) Update 20140729, I do not invest in individual companies, too risky. The following is the logic behind this statement compared to BDC investments. If I invest in 30 dividend companies, anyone of them may have financial problems and drag down the portfolio very quickly. The Due-Diligence (DD) would take all my time to analyze past performance and make judgments for the future, and current events can tank a stock fast. Every company needs money to run operations and for capital improvements and this is where BDCs come into play. The individual company has to borrow funds and BDCs are there to provide the capital. So the BDC is like a bank to lend money. Each BDC may contain hundreds of separate loans going to hundreds of different companies making the BDC less risky than owning individual companies. If one of the companies that the BDC has a loan with goes bankrupt, the BDC will recover some if not all of the loan monies lent to the failed company, and the BDC will continue with a very small disruption to its bottom line. So in effect owing BDCs that contain hundreds of investments (loans to companies) earning a consistent repayment to principal and interest is safer than just owning an individual low yielding company. When you invest in a BDC or REIT you are investing in the managers that perform the DD by analyzing the companies first before loaning them money to run their business.
Owing 10 or more BDCs is like having investments in thousands of companies with a very low risk of any one individual company causing portfolio damage, while your portfolio grows faster with the high yields from BDCs and REITs.
8) I have developed FREE Excel applications for planning retirement during the accumulation and distribution phase, the links are in my articles, (Dividend Growth Calculator... and Predicting Retirement...) As I develop additional Excel 2010 applications I'll make them available to all SA members. We are all in the same boat trying to achieve a better life in retirement.
Owen Williams, CFA, DBA, is an equity fund manager in Geneva, Switzerland and a visiting professor at the Skema Business School, Paris, France. Dr. Williams has worked 16 years in the industry as both a bond/economics strategist with a top, independent research boutique and as a long-only macro equity fund manager. He has a Masters degree in international business from the Moore School of Business (Univ. of South Carolina) and a doctorate in finance from the Grenoble Ecole de Management.
Williams Market Analytics, LLC is a quantitative research boutique offering insightful, actionable analysis of financial markets. The firms also runs a systematic allocation strategy using Dr. Williams' quantitative models. The strategy portfolio can be accessed by both individual investors and RIAs in the U.S. and Europe. The strategy description and 5-year performance record can be found at:
Who I Am: I'm a retired individual investor. I retired at the end of 2013 after a 35 year career as a professor and research scientist at a major research university. So -- a career as a researcher and an educator, which is what I hope to continue here. Virtually every good teacher I've ever known says some version of "I learn more from teaching than my students do." There's a lot of truth in that, enough that there's an underlying selfish motivation for my writing here as I continue to learn about investing.
My professional life involved multiple international projects and collaborations, so I traveled extensively over those 35 years. I plan to continue doing so in my retirement. One consequence is that I'm liable to disappear from the site for extended periods. How can you miss me if I don't go away?
My investing priorities are building and refining portfolios designed to provide income and capital growth: Income for my retirement needs, and capital growth for my estate. My investing interests are tax-advantaged income from a range of sources, portfolio strategies, information- and bio-technology, and momentum-based strategic allocation.
Why I Write for Seeking Alpha: I learned long ago that "writing is nature's way of letting you know how sloppy your thinking is." The line comes from a Guindon comic strip of many years ago, and could not be more true in my case. When I did research professionally, I learned that writing it up forces me to think about details I might otherwise overlook. It's how I spent my working career, so it comes more or less naturally to me. I consider it an essential part of doing any research. So, the writing I do here is as much for myself as for the reader. As I started to contribute articles here, they grew out of research for my personal investment portfolios. They're based on things I've uncovered that are of interest to me and may be of interest to others of like mind. My primary purposes in writing them are to help clarify my thinking and to get feedback from others who may have very different opinions. It's those thoughtful comments that make Seeking Alpha such an important resource.
I try to actively engage myself in the comment streams in my articles, contributing what I can and learning from others. As a research scientist I spent a career spanning four decades devoted to free exchange of information vetted by rigorous peer review. It's a concept I firmly believe in. I hope to bring that approach to my interactions and contributions on Seeking Alpha and welcome critical commentary on anything I may contribute here. I especially encourage and appreciate thoughtful comments from those who disagree with me (although I will ignore obvious trolls and encourage others to do so as well). So, go ahead, start a conversation in the comment threads. It's one of the best things about Seeking Alpha.
My Investment Philosophies and Strategies: I maintain two portfolios. My income portfolio is a taxable account. I try to keep it separate from the growth portfolio which is housed in a series of IRAs, traditional and Roth. My income focus is on tax-advantaged income. In 2016 I face minimum required withdrawals from my tax-deferred accounts, so tax efficiency is an important consideration. The IRAs I see as my estate and are focused on generational wealth building. That means the growth portfolios have a long-term horizon, well beyond what an investor of my age might be expected to maintain.
Who Is Left Banker? Ah yes, the name. When I first joined Seeking Alpha I had no intention of being anything but an occasional reader. I saw it as another research site. So, I just ported a name I've used on other sites. I spent some of the best times of my life living on the left bank of the Seine and am always thrilled to be back in La Belle Paris. Add that I also like it because I find several subtle word plays there; I'll leave it to you to decipher that comment.
Finally, I've chosen to remain anonymous, which I feel obligated to justify. First, I have no professional role in finance and nothing to sell, so there is no advantage to be gained by "making a name for myself' here. Second, I value my privacy and have kept my internet presence as low-key as my professional life allowed. I certainly want to avoid any possibility of some internet connection trying to track me down. Odds against that happening are, of course, outrageously long, but why take them on at all?
Disclosures: I have no ties to the financial or security industries in any form. My interests are strictly personal. The banker part of the nym has absolutely no relationship to the profession of the same name. Readers should be aware that I am an investing novice, some might say dilettante. I do not give advice; what I publish is much more in line with a research notebook. Anyone who finds anything of interest will necessarily want to do his or her complete research and due diligence. It would be foolish to rely on my conclusions without having done so.
I provide economic analysis, market commentary and company-specific research. My general view is to operate a diversified basket of long-term investments in both equities and fixed income. I have a bachelor's degree in economics from San Diego State University (2007), eight years of publishing experience and over a decade of cumulative investment experience. I have been published in several newspapers and magazines, including The Wall Street Journal and Barron's.
I am currently a retired Aerospace Engineer. I am married with three children and eight grandchildren. I was born in San Francisco, CA in 1949 and moved to Newport News, VA in 1951 where I lived until I went to college. By God's grace, I received a B.S. degree from Virginia Tech (1972), a M.S. degree from Caltech (1973), and a M.A. - Biblical Studies degree from Birmingham Theological Seminary (2013). I worked at Pratt & Whitney (1973-1986) and CFD Research Corporation (1987-2008).
Now in retirement and trying to preserve my life savings, I currently have a strong interest in tactical asset allocation strategies, and have studied them extensively. I have developed a number of tactical strategies involving the periodic trading of ETFs and, more recently, mutual funds. These strategies have been backtested mainly using Portfolio Visualizer and ETFreplay software. The goal is to earn 10-15% annually with no negative years, and to have maximum drawdowns of less than 10%, preferably less than 5%. The strategies include purchasing a limited number of funds with the highest growth and lowest volatility, and minimizing risk using moving average, dual momentum, and risk parity methods. I have developed strategies for equity as well as bond assets.
Jonathan Moreland is the founder and Director of Research at InsiderInsights.com, which produces the weekly InsiderInsights Newsletter, and offers institutional strength, real-time insider data and analytics via a subscription Data Module and APIs. He is also principal of Insider Asset Management llc, a registered investment advisor in New York State, and a past contributor to TheStreet.com, Minyanville, and other financial outlets.
A fundamental analyst with an MBA in finance, Mr. Moreland identified insider data over 25 years ago as an excellent first screen to determine where to focus his research efforts. He is quoted frequently in the media for his insider analysis, and stock recommendations stemming from it. He is also author of Profit From Legal Insider Trading (Dearborn 2001), and has a new book due out with Wiley.
Mr. Moreland is currently on a mission to get investors to expect more from insider data than the commodity feeds they rely on from their Bloomberg terminals, Yahoo!Finance, and other financial websites.
I am an early career scientific researcher who has taken a strong interest in investing, both for achieving my personal financial goals as well as serving as an alternative conduit where critical and logical thinking are rewarded. I write articles to share ideas, refine my own thinking and invite discussion from the astute readership of Seeking Alpha.
For a better Seeking Alpha experience on your phone, please consider viewing the website on your browser (request desktop site for full functionality) instead of through the Seeking Alpha app.
Within the academic field, I have a career total of 89 publications and 5 book chapters, 2,900 total citations and an h-index of 32 (metrics from Google Scholar).
I am a retired engineer with a PhD in Engineering Science (mostly exotic math) together with a Masters in Statistics. I currently manage my website www.superchargeretirementincome.com, where I use my math background to select high-return, low-volatility investments. I also love teaching so I also provide a number of tutorials about all aspects of investing. I am an avid reader and have read just about every book I could find on the stock market. I am still learning so I welcome comments and suggestions. Over the years I have learned that there is no “holy grail”; you cannot receive a good return without taking risks. However, you can choose your investments to reduce risks and those are the kind of investments I like to make. Although financial markets are my passion, engineering is my profession. I have spent the last 30+ years as a program manager at a large aerospace company, working on improving defenses for our U.S. Army customers.
Ph.D. economics and Finance MBA finance
Globe Institute of Technology
Professor – Economics and Finance, Chair of Business Department
Colorado Technical University
Adjunct Professor – courses: Applied Managerial Finance (Graduate Level), Microeconomics, International Finance
European School Of Economics (New York Campus)
Adjunct Professor – Economics (Graduate Level) Courses taught: Microeconomics
Metropolitan College of New York
Adjunct Professor – Economics, Banking and Finance
Courses taught: History of Economic Thought, Macroeconomics, Money and Financial Institutions
World Gold Council
New York, NY
• Constructed econometric models relating to gold's role as a portfolio diversifier primarily aimed at institutional investors.
• Focused on models of the embedded optionality of gold in terms of its relation to other investment assets and economic fundamentals such as inflation and business conditions.
Founder and President, Internet Startup company with polling and investment advice websites.
Fundamental Portfolio Advisors, Inc.
Chief Portfolio Strategist – President
• At the predecessor company I started the New York Muni Fund, the first single state triple tax-free municipal bond fund.
• I took the fund from a one-employee start-up where I performed every function to a family of mutual funds which had five funds with total assets above $300 million and which did all of its distribution, accounting and transfer in-house.
• I wrote the initial prospectus and was responsible for managing the portfolios of what eventually grew to be a family of 5 mutual funds.
• Was chief economist for parent company’s brokerage affiliate.
• Involved on the buy-side in the development and monitoring of various structured municipal finance products. Worked with major issuers such as New York City and major investment banks such as Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs.
• Designed and submitted a U.S. Patent Application for a portfolio management system for mutual funds involving derivatives.
Note: In 1996 Fundamental Portfolio Advisors and myself were subject to civil litigation by the SEC which resulted in deregistration and a permanent bar from the securities industry.
A. Gary Shilling & Co.
Senior Economist – Vice President
Economic consulting, modeling and forecasting. Both macro and micro.
• Clients included: Emerson Electric, Bethlehem Steel, Castle & Cooke, Cooper Industries and the U.S. Department of Transportation.
• I was the author of the 1979 study commissioned by the U.S. Government Interstate Commerce Commission, which calculated the expected economic impact of trucking deregulation.
White, Weld & Co, Inc.
• White, Weld was the sixth largest investment banking and brokerage firm when Merrill Lynch bought it.
• Extensive work was done on the All-American Pipeline Proposal to tap the Alaskan Gas Reserves.
• The economics department of White, Weld formed A. Gary Shilling & Co. at the time of the Merrill Lynch merger.
American Stock Exchange
New York University
June 1978 Ph.D.
• Ph.D. dual field, economics and finance.
• Doctoral dissertation was in contingency claims (options) theory
June 1973 MBA with concentration in economics and finance
NYU Engineering School
June 1971 Bachelor of Science - Nuclear Engineering Tau Beta Pi
Analysis of the Embedded Inflation Optionality in Gold Prices. World Gold Council, 2000. New York, N.Y.
The Economic Impact of Trucking Deregulation. Interstate Commerce Commission, 1979, Washington D.C.
I focus on investments in the oil & gas & MLP sectors with an eye for dividend income growth and long-term capital appreciation. I typically allocate a portion of my own portfolio and devote some of my Seeking Alpha articles to small and medium sized companies offering compelling risk/reward propositions. I am an engineer, not a qualified investment advisor. While the information and data presented in my articles are obtained from company documents and/or sources believed to be reliable, they have not been independently verified. Therefore, I cannot guarantee its accuracy. I advise investors conduct their own research and/or consult a qualified investment advisor. I explicitly disclaim any liability that may arise from investment decisions you make based on my articles. Thanks for reading and I wish you much success with your investments.
Fredrik Arnold is my pen name. In 2012 I retired from doing quality service analysis for John Hancock Long Term Care Insurance in Boston then moved to North Carolina in 2013. My fascination with capital preservation, fixed fractional trading, and trading systems keeps me blogging for Seeking Alpha. Most of my articles focus on dividend yields and analyst mean 1 yr targets as stock trading indicators. These are essential tools for catching the most valuable dividend dogs.
I have been working in the financial services sector for many years and have advised many individuals regarding managing their portfolios. During my career, I discovered my inclination towards research and writing about scenarios that can influence stocks in various ways. I wish to share my writings with the community and establish a strong networking through SA.
I am an independent ETF analyst. My research segments the entire emerging market ETF universe and seeks to identify superior funds based on market/index structure, macro drivers, technical and other considerations. I also try to challenge common perceptions about emerging markets and be objective.
Nothing I write should be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell specific securities. Please do your own research and/or consult with a financial adviser.
Cliff Wachtel, CPA, is currently the Director of Market Research, New Media and Training for Caesartrade.com, a fast growing forex and CFD broker. He covers a variety of topics including global market drivers, forex, currency hedged and diversified income investing, and is currently working on a unique project related to that asset class - MLPs.
He is also the author of The Sensible Guide To Forex, and publisher of thesensibleguidetoforex.com. Both the book and website are uniquely dedicated to providing safer, simpler ways for active traders and passive long term income investors to use forex markets to diversify out of currencies like the USD, EUR, JPY, and others that are being debased by central bank policies, and so hedge currency risk and boost returns.
Since the Great Financial Crisis began in 2007, Cliff was among the first financial writers to focus on stocks that provide steady, high yields currency diversification for insurance against currencies being steadily devalued. Articles focus on both top income stocks for exposure to multiple quality currencies, and safer, simpler less demanding types of longer term forex trades than commonly covered on other forex sites.
He also posts a variety of articles on topics ranging from weekly strategic global market analysis, conservative forex trading, assorted special reports, currency diversified income investing, binary options, and trader training articles via multiple websites. His home sites include: globalmarkets.anyoption.com, thesensibleguidetoforex.com, caesartrade.com, globalmarkets.com, and others. Most can also be found at leading financial websites like seekingalpha.com, businessinsider.com, and forex sites like forexfactory.com and fxstreet.com. His work is regularly translated into numerous languages, including Spanish, French, Italian, Turkish and Russian, Arabic, German, and Chinese, often with his express knowledge and permission!
He has appeared in a variety of offline publications including Forex Journal, and John Nyaradi’s book, Super Sectors, in which he was interviewed along with other market experts like Jim Rodgers, Dr.Marc Faber, John Mauldin, Robert Prechter, and Tom Lydon.
Prior to his current positions, he was Chief Analyst at avafx.com, and a 30+ year financial market veteran as investor, trader, writer, analyst and advisor to private clients and institutions. He attended Vassar College and Cornell University, and is a certified public accountant.
He’s married with 5 children and lives in Jerusalem, Israel, where he can follow Asian markets in the early morning, Europe through the workday, and the Americas at night.
Cited by Barron's as one of the top financial websites to visit on the weekend, Financial Sense (www.financialsense.com) provides educational resources to the broad public audience through a daily podcast, editorials, current news and resource links on salient financial market issues. Begun in 1985 as a local talk radio program, Financial Sense Newshour (www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour) is a weekly webcast with host Jim Puplava and top financial thinkers. Writing staff of Financial Sense includes: Jim Puplava, Chris Puplava, Ryan Puplava, and Cris Sheridan.
"In order to win in markets, you must first learn to manage risk."
Dave Kelly has been managing his own portfolio since 2000. He prefers special situations and small caps with big moats, competitive advantage, or first-mover status. Dave is on the Stocktwits Must Follow List and you can also find him talking stocks and markets here
Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA is the Chief Investment Officer of Sizemore Capital Management LLC, a registered investment advisor. He has been a frequent guest on Bloomberg TV and Fox Business News, has been quoted in Barron’s Magazine, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post and is a frequent contributor to Forbes Moneybuilder, GuruFocus, MarketWatch and InvestorPlace.com.
Charles holds a master’s degree in Finance and Accounting from the London School of Economics in the United Kingdom and a Bachelor of Business Administration in Finance with an International Emphasis from Texas Christian University in Fort Worth, Texas, where he graduated Magna Cum Laude and as a Phi Beta Kappa scholar.
Residing in Colorado Springs, Colorado.
Has been trading and coaching using a self-developed option trading system for 10 years. Philosophically conservative, accurately trades weekly options with a strong risk management approach.
Well sought after by investors around the world, he teaches a minimum and hand-selected number of students each quarter how to trade his system.
Besides investing his interests are: Acoustic Guitar, Kayaking, Mountain Biking
I started trading on a permanent scale five years ago. My goal is to create a stable portfolio over a period of time, whichs generates good stock- and dividend returns. I have a fundamentel approach towards investments decisions. Further, I have a broad experience in tax- and legal advisory (e.g. music rights, corporate income tax, value added tax and salary tax), auditing of financial statements, business consultancy, administrative services and assembling financial statements. My experience covers a wide variety of clients and companies with specific knowledge of the music and related busines.
Equities Lab is an investor's dream. Flexible screening, back-testing, charting, trading rules - quantitative or fundamental - If you can dream it up, you can test whether the idea in your head would have really worked or really tanked. Keep the science, get rid of the guess work. Get started with Equities Lab.
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I am a Level III candidate in the CFA program. I have passed the Level I exam in June 2014 and the Level II exam in June 2015.
Outside of my interest in investing and stock analysis (which I currently do in my free time,) I am an IT project manager for a large multi-national firm. With my background in technology I have particular interest and stronger circle of competence in tech stocks, although I venture from this domain to certain other industries as well where I feel the businesses are simple and understandable or where I have particular first hand knowledge.
I consider myself a value investing enthusiast, following a bottom up fundamental analysis style approach. My value investing approach is quite simple - I look to "figure out the value of something, and pay a lot less".
I do not consider Growth and Value stocks as mutually exclusive, and in fact my favorite investments are:
small cap companies with good long term growth prospects,
strong business fundamentals
low financial leverage,
trading at an attractive valuation, and with some sort of short term difficulties that have caused the market perception to be negative in the short term.
To value companies I use a variety of techniques, sometimes heavily favoring traditional value metrics like P/B, and also I like good business (ROIC, ROE) trading at attractive multiples against EBITDA. I do discounted cash flow analysis where appropriate, and in some cases favor heavily on comparative valuation.
I am a physician and vitamin D expert. I am a graduate of the University of North Carolina School of Medicine. In my 35 year career in medicine, I have practiced emergency medicine, general practice and psychiatry.
In 2003, I established the Vitamin D Council, a non-profit dedicated to educating the public and health professionals about vitamin D. I frequently speak about vitamin D and have spoken at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. I recently served as a "visiting professor" for Marshall University School of Medicine's 25th Annual Research Day.
I have been studying, writing and lecturing about vitamin D for more than 12 years. The Vitamin D Council's website gets over 2.5 million users per year. If you Google my name, "John Cannell", you will get over 60,000 hits, almost all about vitamin D. If you search for "Cannell JJ" on Google Scholar, you will see I have written more than a dozen peer-reviewed scientific articles about vitamin D. Three of my scientific articles (two about influenza and vitamin D and one about autism and vitamin D) are the most cited articles in the history of their respective journals.
Tom Dorsey has a BS in Business Administration and a stock analyst for over 20 years.
Improved website! Our recommendations average over 10% each quarter and help accelerate the growth of your portfolio. The overall market is moving sideways, but the results of our selected recommendations have helped investors increase their portfolios every quarter.
We track the overall market, economic conditions, the banking industry and REITs, the oil industry and MLPs As we move forward we describe the effects on your portfolio and how to grow.
The majority of our research has focused on higher paying dividend stocks in REITs and MLPs. Our return is 10% or higher return per quarter that includes the dividends and stock price appreciation. We use concepts called 'analytical sorting" and "90-Day Investment Cycle" that focuses on the effects on the markets and the personal investment strategies. I invest in what I believe in. We ask each person to make their own decisions before investing. Enjoy my articles and visit my website to provide me feedback. The comments are always welcome. Please comment on the articles, and respect each person’s opinion.
The enormous advancement in the biological sciences that is taking place has begun to change the traditional way of practicing medicine. Far-reaching biological products are being approved and news about breakthroughs are occupying the media headlines. However, selecting the biotechnology firms for investment requires not only an understanding of the company's finances, but also deep knowledge of the company's potential and the potential and scientific validity of it's products and technologies.
Our Mission is evaluating biotechnology companies, their products, their technologies, scientists, managements, as well as their finances. Our goal is to impart our readers with the knowledge and insight so that they may have a heightened understanding and appreciation for the biotechnology industry.
The Prohost Letter has been in circulation since 1992. Our readers are comprised of venture capital, fund managers, investors, medical professionals and individuals with one common interest, biotechnology.
Prohost Letter is posted in the members areas on the www.prohostbiotech.com. around 40 times a year. Articles are posted several times a week for subscribers in TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS section and in News & Comments sector for all website visitors
Strategic investor/researcher with a primary focus in high percentage gain poised long equity investments. My research areas include the biotech/pharmaceutical sector, precious metals markets, short equities and natural resources.
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