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CDS Market: Don't Believe What You See

All ups and downs do not occur naturally, it is orchestrated by somebody or group of somebody for a certain objective. The result has to be unexpected or extreme (used to call "bubble") otherwise the ordinary guy will be able to beat and profit from them. Usually such extreme cannot last long as the longer it is, the more danger it is for those somebody. They cannot allow the ordinary guy to sell out high before the crash and they cannot allow the ordinary guy to buy cheaper than them. With so much cash sitting on the sidelines, there will be no panic on the sell side as seen by the light volume. This will be a tug of war and those somebody will be in a difficult position to win big this time as there are less ordinary guy or these guys are financially stronger to weather the negative trend than expected. The news will have to be manipulated carefully so as not to let the market get out of control but there may be less and less bad news as time went by longer. With the advance of internet, the ordinary guy can study and learn a lot more than expected and the level of panic is substantially lower and with so many historical analysis in the market right now, the trend is quite clear that things will turn better in a much shorter period of time, say 6 - 9 months. This may pose a danger to those mastermind who put so many resources to manipulate the market but cannot get the return expected. In fact, it may be time to cut a little meat from the elephant.