Falling Gas Prices Are a Tax Cut of Massive Proportions [View article]
Gotta love peak oil. Seriously, the US didn't hit peak oil. We just decided that we didn't want to drill here anymore. There is enough oil under US lands to supply the US for the next 100 years or more. The only difference is that we need to build the technology to get to it safely and convince the voting public that it really is safe on the environment.
Falling Oil: The Giant Global Tax Cut [View article]
Oil production is slowing because we're on the brink of peak oil. It's okay to short this for now, but don't get caught long term short. Just like in the seventies when we hit U.S. peak oil, there was a national recession. Now, we've hit global peak oil. There has to be a world recession, maybe even depression, to keep oil use at a sustainable level. You know what that means. Less sushi, more Ramen.
Options Trader: Outlook for a Testy Tuesday [View article]
The trick here is, oil will eventually climb again. But, its going to require the economy getting back on track. If they can't get the banking crap sorted, you can expect to see gas drop back down to the range of low 2 something a gallon before it climbs up again. China can't build squat if the economy tanks. Fact is, OPEC shot themselves in the foot when they let oil climb sky high which inevitably drives up supply. The end result is that oil will be sitting at an oversupplied rate over the next 2-3 years and opec will be caught in the middle of trying to drive prices back up by reducing supply while the US market increases supply through other means to keep prices down. Ultimately they also sparked a revolutionary change in the market place so that consumers focus on gas mileage instead of size which reduces the demand.
Misinterpretation of Gold Lease Rates and Why Gold Could Rise [View article]
Good points Brian,
When the market manipulation ends (after the US election) and demographic patterns take hold (buying behavior changes as baby boomers retire - starting in 2009) you will find no one will be seeking the US dollar or EURO and gold and silver will be in great demand.
If history is a guide, gold will be steadily advancing in the coming months, once the hedge fund-liquidation ends; and when foreign governments stop propping up the dollar to help the incumbent party during November's US election. The recent back-sliding is not because of the some inherent flaw in gold investing, but because hedge funds and (some) government manipulation (keep people in dollars effort) are selling... and selling big! Hedge funds are selling to cover margin calls and short positions... and to retrieve cash for those bailing out of their once precious multi-trillion dollar funds.
Here is what will happen in the coming six months. Once the election is over (Nov), foreign governments will not be supporting a strong US dollar policy. Instead they will be retaining gold and silver to hedge against the coming economic winter and the falling reserve currency (USD). Hedge funds will complete most of there short selling/ covering calls by the end of November... and to satisfying client exit- demands (look for a few more periods when options expire). Then as the US government and others inflate their currencies and try to Keynesian-spend their way out of this economic down turn (Thanksgiving through Spring), look for gold and silver to reach it's all time high (I'm forecasting February highs).
Why Oil and Gold Are Headed Much Higher [View article]
Great Post. IMO we will see the tables turn once we regain equilibrium to seeing higher commodity prices. Let's face it. 1) Massive increase in money supply + 2) Lowered interest rates = 3) Increased inflationary pressures.
= investors running to gold and oil as a safe haven.
What's It Going to Be: Inflation or Deflation? [View article]
Jason.
-Money supply increase -inflation pressure increases -SEC valuation modification: we can't properly value equities -leading to more uncertainty -investors run to hedge their cash -worldwide increase in the price of gold.
Misinterpretation of Gold Lease Rates and Why Gold Could Rise [View article]
Lets not forget that Merrill has predicted that gold should hit $1,500 within the next few years. I will state that I am a bull on gold. Why? From Econ 101, I know that with a substantial increase in the money supply.. will result in inflationary pressures. With inflation our current fiat currency will be worth less and less. We will continue to experience uncertainty in our economy? Where will people go? To gold, not only to preserve wealth but to preserve one's mental state of being.
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Latest | Highest ratedFalling Gas Prices Are a Tax Cut of Massive Proportions [View article]
decided that we didn't want to drill here anymore. There is enough
oil under US lands to supply the US for the next 100 years or more.
The only difference is that we need to build the technology to get to
it safely and convince the voting public that it really is safe on the
environment.
Falling Oil: The Giant Global Tax Cut [View article]
okay to short this for now, but don't get caught long term short. Just
like in the seventies when we hit U.S. peak oil, there was a national
recession. Now, we've hit global peak oil. There has to be a world
recession, maybe even depression, to keep oil use at a sustainable
level. You know what that means. Less sushi, more Ramen.
Options Trader: Outlook for a Testy Tuesday [View article]
require the economy getting back on track. If they can't get the
banking crap sorted, you can expect to see gas drop back down to the
range of low 2 something a gallon before it climbs up again. China
can't build squat if the economy tanks. Fact is, OPEC shot themselves
in the foot when they let oil climb sky high which inevitably drives
up supply. The end result is that oil will be sitting at an
oversupplied rate over the next 2-3 years and opec will be caught in
the middle of trying to drive prices back up by reducing supply while
the US market increases supply through other means to keep prices
down. Ultimately they also sparked a revolutionary change in the
market place so that consumers focus on gas mileage instead of size
which reduces the demand.
Misinterpretation of Gold Lease Rates and Why Gold Could Rise [View article]
When the market manipulation ends (after the US election) and
demographic patterns take hold (buying behavior changes as baby
boomers retire - starting in 2009) you will find no one will be
seeking the US dollar or EURO and gold and silver will be in great
demand.
If history is a guide, gold will be steadily advancing in the coming
months, once the hedge fund-liquidation ends; and when foreign
governments stop propping up the dollar to help the incumbent party
during November's US election. The recent back-sliding is not because
of the some inherent flaw in gold investing, but because hedge funds
and (some) government manipulation (keep people in dollars effort) are
selling... and selling big! Hedge funds are selling to cover margin
calls and short positions... and to retrieve cash for those bailing
out of their once precious multi-trillion dollar funds.
Here is what will happen in the coming six months. Once the election
is over (Nov), foreign governments will not be supporting a strong US
dollar policy. Instead they will be retaining gold and silver to
hedge against the coming economic winter and the falling reserve
currency (USD). Hedge funds will complete most of there short selling/
covering calls by the end of November... and to satisfying client exit-
demands (look for a few more periods when options expire). Then as
the US government and others inflate their currencies and try to
Keynesian-spend their way out of this economic down turn (Thanksgiving
through Spring), look for gold and silver to reach it's all time high
(I'm forecasting February highs).
Keep the faith!
Why Oil and Gold Are Headed Much Higher [View article]
1) Massive increase in money supply
+
2) Lowered interest rates
=
3) Increased inflationary pressures.
= investors running to gold and oil as a safe haven.
Gold: Beware the Bucking Bull [View article]
What's It Going to Be: Inflation or Deflation? [View article]
-Money supply increase
-inflation pressure increases
-SEC valuation modification: we can't properly value equities
-leading to more uncertainty
-investors run to hedge their cash
-worldwide increase in the price of gold.
Gold Long, Inflation Long.
Misinterpretation of Gold Lease Rates and Why Gold Could Rise [View article]