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pmiller100

pmiller100
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  • Does Coke Even Know That These Are The Good Years - And The Worst Is Yet To Come? [View article]
    I took that as sarcasm, and if it wasn't meant to be sarcastic perhaps it should have been. Actually I was really put off by the headline and in fairness to this author I'm not sure they write their own headlines here. I obviously have no problem with newby analysts writing what they do (or I wouldn't come here and read this stuff), but when it seems to come from a point of view of arrogance in which the analyst writes as though he or she knows the company's business better than does the company, it starts sounding a little pretentious.
    Feb 20, 2014. 11:19 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton: A Few Reasons Why I'm Staying Long [View article]
    Ding, ding, we have a winner. Same rationale for me.
    Jan 15, 2014. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Have You Been Wrong About Gold And Silver? [View article]
    Avi, appreciate the real-time update. How likely are we looking here?
    Jan 14, 2014. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Expensive Free Advice: 2014 Edition [View article]
    Market strategist predictions average a small S&P decline for the year? Not doubting you, but... you're kidding, right? The analyst consensus of gains albeit smaller than 2013 is all I've seen in print (which I guess was your point).

    And who the heck are these market strategists?

    I guess the one thing I know for sure is things can't continue as they are forever. On the U.S. depressive side, that includes our rising debt/GNP, middle class squeeze exacerbated by rising health care costs (before and after Obamacare), hidden inflation from everyone selling anything cutting back on services to avoid any and all expenses not absolutely necessary for business, etc., etc. And that doesn't even get into resource depletion and all that Al Gore stuff, which, while often providing good punch lines, at some point will present real problems (post-peak oil, falling water tables, and all that).

    What I don't know is the timetable for anything, and it seems no one else does either. So for growing net worth, stocks in the near-term seem to be one of the better games in town. Now, I'm hearing that obscure 'market strategists' are concluding that game is on hold for a year?
    Jan 9, 2014. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PMI rises to 11 month high at 55.0, beats consensus- [View news story]
    Good, that ought to keep the bubble inflating a little more...
    Jan 2, 2014. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strategic Shift In My Dividend Portfolio [View article]
    The same fear could be applied to fast food and tobacco stocks. Like most people, I tend to assume most people are like me, whether that's an accurate perception or not. When it comes to health concerns, I do watch the fast food fairly consciously. And I try not to drink too much soda. But of the two, I'm more conscious of how much fast food I avoid.

    Having just survived another Christmas with Coca Cola on the table (yes, I'm a victim of one great marketing campaign, but Coke is a Christmas beverage), I'm pretty sure my table wasn't alone.

    Bottom line is if people did everything they were supposed to do to better ensure good health, the investing landscape would be quite a bit different. People can change, but they rarely do. So I'm guessing that one part of the investing landscape remains intact.

    Agree with the KO buy, but wondering how the author made so much with REITs (I thought they were fairly beaten up with concerns over rising interest rates) and which utilities he sold.
    Dec 26, 2013. 11:11 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Gold Miners...You Are Not Putting A Floor Under The Gold Price [View article]
    Even as a drawn-out fizzle (and I never said otherwise), each would impact the mindset of future traders along the way. At some point, each would make decisions on whether to get back in on the long side and when.

    This whole point you're making is a little bizarre. You are talking about a future in which gold miners potentially couldn't exist. Is that impossible? No, nothing is. There could come a time when the 'barbaric relic' view becomes so prevalent that gold demand truly falls off a cliff. But I'm not expecting to see that.

    Seeking Alpha has some good content, but also some amateurish content. I believe it's like the Bleacher Report of the financial world, where at the top of the pyramid, you have guys who more or less are comparable to professionals at the other sites and sports/financial news outlets. But there's also the bottom of the pyramid... I don't know you or your other articles, but this one strikes me as fairly amateurish.
    Dec 26, 2013. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Gold Miners...You Are Not Putting A Floor Under The Gold Price [View article]
    If news were to report that big-name miners are stopping big-time production, futures traders would more than likely take that to mean a diminishing supply.

    The fact that the futures market sets the spot price while the guys digging up the stuff deal with actual ore makes this a little odd. But, generally, you are correct. During this correction, there was more paper-loosely-connected to actual gold available for sale than there was buying interest. Some of those people selling that paper are likely to buy paper again anyway, and some would have their timetables influenced by mining shutdowns.

    You can state your premise as many different ways as you like, but it just doesn't seem to hold water to me. I'll acknowledge that is because of my guess - though I would call it an educated guess - of how future traders would react to certain changes in the trading environment.
    Dec 25, 2013. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Gold Miners...You Are Not Putting A Floor Under The Gold Price [View article]
    Yes, TVs become obsolete. Or worse, they even stop working. But the point was whether items not available for sale or in any other way for use by others are part of supply.

    I think it's just textbook stuff.

    Making matters more semantically confusing, however, would be to compare gold with money supply. Yes, the supply of a currency runs counter to my econ 101 sense of definitions. But with currency, the supply isn't the driving factor. It's the velocity. Money held in long-term savings doesn't add to velocity. In other words, cash not available for use doesn't help the broader economy (though certainly can help the person holding that account at a later date).

    Alright, we're briefly tried the business school argument and the currency equivalent argument. Now let's try common sense. Supply and demand are market forces that drive pricing, right? If someone wants to buy a bunch of gold coins and none are available for sale at current prices, that person has two choices. He can go home empty handed or he can offer a higher price.

    As the author said, under the right conditions all gold is for sale. A higher price is certainly part of those conditions.

    Granted, gold is a step removed because the paper market drives the pricing. But coin shops sure tack on a lot of premium when supply is low. And eventually any sense of low supply (available for sale) makes its way into the minds of futures traders.

    There certainly is a floor. It's just not a hard and immediate floor.
    Dec 25, 2013. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Gold Miners...You Are Not Putting A Floor Under The Gold Price [View article]
    So the question comes down to what supply means.

    I'm pretty sure with TVs, supply means the supply for sale. Not all the TVs that exist. Granted, if someone came to my door and offered me twice what I paid for my TV, I'd sell it to him. So under those conditions, my TV would be for sale. But until that moment, I'm pretty sure it's not considered part of the greater TV supply.

    And if that's the mental construct you've based all of the above on, I have to say I'm not terribly impressed.
    Dec 21, 2013. 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Gold Miners...You Are Not Putting A Floor Under The Gold Price [View article]
    It's a floor, just not a hard floor with necessarily immediate effect. Miners will only operate unprofitable mines for so long, despite whatever desires to keep experienced labor in place.

    And costs are rising, despite whatever short-term efficiencies can be found in past and future months. Over the course of the last 10 years, costs have risen substantially. Some of this is labor. Much of it, from what I understand, is diminishing ore quality in many currently operating mines. The stuff is getting more expensive to dig up, and that trend is likely to continue.

    Eventually, even gold prices are influenced by supply and demand. And as all gold advocates know, bullion locked away in storage can't be viewed as part of the supply.
    Dec 20, 2013. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Dividend Growth Investors Doing It All Wrong? [View article]
    I'm not strictly dividend growth - probably about half and half. So, with roughly one half of my money, I go after dividend growers. To help me with the other half, I read numerous blogs, etc., etc., mostly end up over-trading, etc., etc., chasing trends this way, running from dangers that way, looking for bottoms and tops, trying to out-smart the market... and still haven't met the performance of my dividend growth side.

    There's something magical about dividends with long-held companies. I was a liberal arts major, so I'm not sure what it is... except magical.

    The other point is that I'd guess most of the truly wealthy investors - people for whom their market performance contributed significantly to their wealthy status - got much of the way to where they are with boring dividend payers.
    Dec 13, 2013. 06:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 3 Dividend Stocks To Benefit From Next Year's FIFA World Cup [View article]
    Basically agree, but the World Cup is huge. I'm not sure many Americans understand how huge. It's like the Super Bowl played out over a month, except imagine a Super Bowl that most of the world rather than just one country cared about. To put it into further perspective, Brazil is hosting the World Cup and two years later the Olympics, and there's no doubt which event of the two is 'bigger' from Brazil's and much of the world's perspective. I'm sure most Brazilians would make a deal with the devil that if guaranteed to win the World Cup they'd give up hosting the Olympics altogether.

    But, back to your point, I tend to agree and unless someone can provide meaningful data that advertising from South Africa or Germany (last two World Cups) made a significant needle-moving difference for companies the size of KO, I'll continue to agree.

    KO is well connected with FIFA, and the rankings of national teams are called the Coca-Cola/FIFA Rankings. So clearly that company sees some ongoing benefit. Does that benefit ramp up every four years when the World Cup comes around? Not sure.
    Dec 9, 2013. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yuan May Hold Key To Chinese Territorial Expansion [View article]
    You're attacking the author's credibility rather than the content of his article, which is exactly what the childish partisans from both major U.S. political parties do.

    There is no doubt the dollar is still the global trading currency, but there also is no doubt that in recent years more international trade than before has been executed in other currencies. The numbers are clear, as they are for increased usage of the yuan for international trade. The yuan has surpassed the euro for second, and continues to slowly chop away at 'market share' previously held by the dollar.

    Likewise, there is no doubt the dollar is still the predominant reserve currency, and there is strong indication that too is trending toward something new - as the Chinese recommend, a basket of reserve currencies.

    There also is no doubt that the Chinese have been accumulating gold, and per their own announcements, several years ago administratively changed their gold holds from their commodity accounts to the reserve currency accounts.

    Personally, I think this is because they believed the dollar was likely to lose value faster than other currencies. They saw our rising debt/GDP ratio, watched as we simultaneously were cutting taxes and supporting major-league sized occupation forces in two theaters, and looked at their own reserve dollars - uh oh, they had to think. That's when the intensified gold accumulation seems to have begun, and when they started floating their basket of reserve currency ideas to anyone who would listen.
    Dec 7, 2013. 12:29 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yuan May Hold Key To Chinese Territorial Expansion [View article]
    Those are all good points. It is easy to quibble with some, but not in a way where a definitive winning argument could be constructed, which is kind of reminiscent of the larger expansionist conceptions that existed on both sides of the old Cold War.

    Your point about overseas military presence is excellent. That's something that Americans need to understand more intuitively - where we see ourselves more often than not wearing the white cowboy hats and only trying to ensure global peace (which benefits our trade), some people in the world just see a single foreign military all over the planet.
    Dec 7, 2013. 12:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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