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pmiller100

pmiller100
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  • Saying Goodbye To Coca-Cola, Time To Move On [View article]
    If KO is part of your dividend growth strategy, then the only reason to sell is when the company fails to raise dividends or when the yield gets so high as to look unsustainable (meaning KO has stubbornly clung to its aristocrat status despite investors losing their belief in the company and not buying up shares in pace with the dividend increases). Well, there could be other reasons, but most of us 'dumb money' folks aren't going to know about them until they impact the stock.

    If you are just moving your money around looking for the next share-price elevator up, then selling KO at other times could make sense. But the approach is tougher because basically you have to be smarter than the market to make it work. With dividend growth, you only have to be more disciplined than the market, which is easier for some of us.
    Mar 31 02:32 PM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures gap down in opening trades [View news story]
    As a conservative-leaning independent, who is more comfortable generally speaking voting for Republicans than Democrats, I have to say this immediate crisis is owned by the GOP. They planned for and ensured the crisis would happen, because they thought they could get something for taking the country to the brink. Now that we're on the brink, we're left hoping that the handful of truly embarrassing Republican congressmen who don't seem to have the foggiest understanding about the impacts of a default can be reigned in or by-passed by actual adults in that party.
    Oct 13 07:54 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The WSJ looks at the contrasting approaches of Virginia and Maryland to tax and spending. The latter's governor, Martin O'Malley, touts his "investment" for its results in education, except that Maryland is losing jobs and rich residents, and often runs out of money. Virginia's unemployment is lower and Governor Bob McDonnell has turned a $6B deficit into a $1B surplus. [View news story]
    Virginia gets a lot of federal money, for more than just the beltway crowd that commutes across the river every morning. Virginia also has the largest concentration of military bases in proportion to state population. Myer, Belvoir, Quantico, AP Hill, Eustis, Lee, Norfolk, Little Creek, Langley, Picket, Dahlgren, Oceania... and I'm probably leaving a few out. These are mostly major installations. And military retirees are a disproportionate part of the state population as well, in order to live near a base from which they can shop tax free, etc. So that's another source of federal money - military pensions.

    Virginia is far from the poster child for less government spending - it just isn't state government spending.
    Aug 26 06:30 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama And Lew Say This Is Serious - Are They Just Grandstanding Or Is This Time Different? [View article]
    I'll admit to having difficulty getting through this article, but only because it wasn't clear to me the author understood the lack of connectivity between the CR and debt ceiling. That is, lack of connectivity away from the idiotic world of partisan politics. The only thing they have in common at the moment is calendar juxtaposition - though there is emotional connection of dots from the CR to general fears about the debt.

    If the headline question is asking whether a default would be serious, my only response is a question of whether the author is serious. Yes, absolutely it would be, and I blame failure to understand that on continuing declines in civics education. Even from Treasury, we've seen comments about how this could be worse than the Great Recession. Again, poor understanding and vision rears its ugly head. A default would pretty much make 2008-9 look like business as usual.

    That said, I really doubt that Congress will let that happen. They'll posture and promenade for their respective constituencies right up to the brink and then find a way to raise the ceiling. In the off chance they don't, the president will ignore the ceiling and the Supreme Court will eventually rule that the Constitution doesn't recognize any such ceiling anyway. If it goes that far, there will be damages to us and the global economies. But the U.S. can't default. That would be a global catastrophe.

    Remember, if Moody's, Fitch or S&P are forced to acknowledge that, oh my gosh, the U.S. is in default (on anything, including entitlement payments), that sovereign credit rating agency will be forced to drop us to the lowest ratings, no matter how much they may try to argue internally against doing that. Then the U.S. bond market goes haywire, which is a much bigger issue than stock markets. I'm not sure after that if the genie could be put back in the bottle.
    Oct 6 10:00 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strategic Shift In My Dividend Portfolio [View article]
    The same fear could be applied to fast food and tobacco stocks. Like most people, I tend to assume most people are like me, whether that's an accurate perception or not. When it comes to health concerns, I do watch the fast food fairly consciously. And I try not to drink too much soda. But of the two, I'm more conscious of how much fast food I avoid.

    Having just survived another Christmas with Coca Cola on the table (yes, I'm a victim of one great marketing campaign, but Coke is a Christmas beverage), I'm pretty sure my table wasn't alone.

    Bottom line is if people did everything they were supposed to do to better ensure good health, the investing landscape would be quite a bit different. People can change, but they rarely do. So I'm guessing that one part of the investing landscape remains intact.

    Agree with the KO buy, but wondering how the author made so much with REITs (I thought they were fairly beaten up with concerns over rising interest rates) and which utilities he sold.
    Dec 26 11:11 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver And Gold: Are New Lows Still In Store Even After Fed? [View article]
    Avi, you seem particularly perturbed that people don't read you closely. Maybe if you didn't have so many paragraphs explaining why you feel others are insane and defending yourself as more right than not, they wouldn't be in skim reading mode, and might pick up more of your trading nuance. I think there's probably more than a few people who skip the top two-thirds of your articles, looking to pick up in the paragraphs were you start talking about numbers.

    You've built some degree of reputation, which brings people to these articles. So I'm not sure why the combative tone exists, unless it simply is to inspire combative comments in response, because you get something out of the sheer number of comments. Not sure how SA works fully, but that is what it seems you are doing. I know guys at the Bleacher Report do that - write articles they know will generate a lot of opposition in comments. Authors actually get 'awards' for articles that get certain numbers of comments. Is that what's happening here?
    Sep 23 09:27 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's gloomy reports show the world economic outlook to be in dire straits. As U.S. employment growth slows sharply, Chinese factory output barely growing and European manufacturing falling deeper into malaise, the calls are going to grow for another round of stimulus from the Fed. Whether or not it wants to step in to catch that falling knife, however, is anyone's guess.  [View news story]
    Who isn't? And speaking of addictions, there's a lot of addiction to centralized deficit spending going around these days. In fact, most of the developed economies are so addicted, their respective governments have backed themselves into a situation in which they can't keep spending and they can't stop spending. To keep spending is to run up debts even further, and to stop threatens recession.

    I'm not sure if it will be next month or next decade, but there's a lot of unpleasant changes coming.
    Jun 1 08:09 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold $2000? Are We Joking? [View article]
    I'm with outcastsearcher, at least until someone can give me an idea of how elliot waves work in practical terms. Otherwise, it just seems to me like another form of voodoo picking of stocks and other assets.

    TA works, I believe, for two reasons. One is that it helps people take emotion out of their picking plans. That's a benefit, regardless of what's backing up the plan, so long as its a plan that doesn't run completely contrary to fundamental common sense. The other is it becomes self-fulfilling prophecy. Everyone knows the results of the analyses, at least at the basic level, including support and resistance levels. It increasingly matters because more and more automated trading is programmed accordingly. So, yes, if everyone believes stock X is going to bounce off Y support, then low and behold it tends to bounce of that number. The reason is people are buying there.

    Back to elliot waves. I've seen them work and seen them not. I had a trial subscription to that Dutch guy - Charles Nenner, Nanner? - who as I understand is considered among the elliot elite. Just tracked his results for that year. Some good calls, but some bad ones, too. (Even Cramer is right 48 percent of the time.) One call in particular was horrible, and people who put too much faith in him probably lost a lot of money that day. Oh, the reason for the horrible call was a misinterpretation of something or other. In hindsight, the interpretation was much better...

    I don't claim to know everything, and there may be something to this more than I realize. Until the nuts and bolts are explained in a way my limited brain can understand, I'll go on thinking there isn't more to it. One last point. If you look at the wealthiest investors, seems to me there's more fundamentals being used by those guys than TA, elliot waves, etc. Actually fundamental analysis with contrarian approaches seem to produce the most wealth. Get back to me when an elliot wave guy clears $10 billion.
    Jun 3 08:31 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Why One More Major Correction Still Lies Ahead [View article]
    So you're betting we will have a major correction just because they've come in threes the previous four times? Does that really strike you as being statistically relevant?

    Too much of these "analyses" just seem to me like voodoo predictions based on chicken bones. Not much more than noting the past coincidental occurrence of stock performance in the years an original NFL team wins the Superbowl.

    There are a lot of reasons to think a major correction might be coming. A statistical quick look using a sample of four just doesn't seem credible among them.
    May 25 08:11 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Linked In absolutely does all it is accused of doing. I stopped using the site because of it. Constant spamming along the lines of "do you know this person?" and the only way it can make those connections is by taking data out of e-mail accounts.

    They say it all is associations you post, like work histories and school backgrounds, etc. I get that. If they pull up someone from my alma mater and ask me if I want to talk with this person, that's fine, because that's based on information I provided. But the connections I saw them making were well beyond this - connections they couldn't legally know. For instance, I coach a youth soccer team, and despite having nothing about soccer in my profile, was getting spammed with connection offers to the parents of my players. Those parents were getting the same for me. And that is just one example. It's a spooky service, which is exactly what I told them when I shut my account down.
    Sep 23 09:05 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Crash In The Bond Market [View article]
    The author lists Casey Research as his company, and the write-up for that lists expertise in energy and metals investing first, so I wouldn't be surprised to see an answer along those lines.

    And I wouldn't argue with that. If we see a global loss of faith in fiat currencies, the value of precious metals and commodities ought to increase in relation to those currencies. Gold and oil ought to do well. I'd add don't look past water as a commodity.
    Mar 10 10:48 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Believe In The Cult Of Equity [View article]
    You mean some people here aren't who they claim to be? I'm shocked, shocked to find gambling at Rick's Cafe.
    Aug 1 03:47 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Quarter 2012: The Beginning Of An Earnings Collapse [View article]
    Futures are pulling back slightly this morning with growing realization that yet another European fix is relatively meaningless, and with news that Finland and the Netherlands aren't on board with that agreement anyway. The European debt/currency crisis seems to be playing toward its endgame - well, at least the currency part of it.

    I agree with the author there has been a disconnect between U.S. investors and global events. Us Americans don't seem to have very long attention spans. News from Europe just continued on for too many months, so a lot of people here seemed to conclude it wasn't going to get any better nor any worse for a while; might as well ignore it because our economy is better. In actuality this situation across the Atlantic was getting worse, and that worsening might be about to accelerate.

    So, yeah, unless we see something really surprising out of Asia and/or South America in terms of growth, and it's hard to imagine that happening when things will continue to deteriorate in Europe (not even getting into our negative pre-announcements), we're in for a rough stretch.
    Jul 2 08:18 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EU Summit Agreement Bogus: Global Bear Market To Resume [View article]
    Funniest comment I've read on Seeking Alpha yet, Soi.
    Jun 29 02:36 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold $2000? Are We Joking? [View article]
    Depends at which fundamentals you are looking. If you mean the dollar is due to reverse, then maybe. If you look at reasons why the dollar is up, fundamentally those reasons don't seem to be changing, and actually may be getting more dire. That's in the short to mid-term. Long-term, the dollar isn't likely to do well.

    And beyond dollar valuations, I'm not sure what fundamentals anyone would point to regarding gold. Spot price is determined by paper futures, so there isn't a direct link to supply and demand of the metal. Indirect, sure, but not direct.

    I'm a gold advocate, so don't get me wrong. But we have to look at why gold holds any value at all. It does just because it does. Why does a dollar hold any value beyond the paper it's printed on? Because the U.S. says so. Why does a spec of gold hold any value? Because people recognize it's multi-millennial tradition and say so. It's the non-fiat currency. Or maybe it would be more accurate to say it's the popular fiat currency (I do realize it's technically not a currency at all). And it's maintained its purchasing power better than any fiat currency in the history of fiat currencies.

    So how do you judge the fundamentals on something like that? My best guess is that gold will continue to hold its purchasing power, and that other currencies won't. It's not a path to riches. It just allows people to jump off the fiat-currency down escalator with wealth already attained.
    Jun 3 08:42 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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