The problem with this rally as I see it is the position and rate of decline of the moving averages for the broad U.S. market. It is still in a downtrend, unlike the status of the 50 to 100 da MA at the market bottoms of '74 and '82. In the previous two bear market bottoms those MAs had flattened out considerably (actually became horizontal) as the stock indices penetrated them. IMO we still need a few more months of base building before the true lift-off of the next bull market.
More Market Swings Are on the Way [View article]
IMO we still need a few more months of base building before the true lift-off of the next bull market.