Diabolo

IMF Notwithstanding, Just Don't See a Depression

The IMF last April/May came out with a very pessimistic report, citing losses to reach $2trillion and revising growth downwards. Not a single person really believed that, while markets rallied that day. Officials, who have been misleading everyone right from the start, again will downplay these reports - but like a sound investor, I'd say allow for the IMF's projections. They employ some of the best minds around the world - as do all the banks who caused these losses.

Trust you own instinct - I believe that 2009 will still be in depression, maybe a recovery as from Nov/Dec - 2010 will be sluggish and then the world will get back on track in 2011, which will be the start of the largest boom in recent history. All this cheap money will find its way somewhere - where the returns will be higher than sluggish developed countries. The ones who will benefit from this boom will be latin america, africa and india.

But 2009 looks bad - i think we currently have a bear market's rally - bankruptcies yet have to soar - including some banks... we are not done with this yet... unfortunately!

John Hussman: The Market Is Not in Uncharted Territory

Great graphs 70s stag survivor

I think we're at the same level of nov'29 where it rebounded off 200, though now that level should be 800.

Prob have a rebound, especially with a new president, new policies, new hope (the audacity of hope), before fizzling out as we discover more and more bad debts - which will be coming from various sources not yet taken into estimates.

Its gonna be painful... - the repricing of risk, rising bankruptcies, increasing unemployment.

I hope not a depression again, but its gonna be tough!

Precious Metals Will Depose Cash from Its Temporary Throne

i think we've already seen the worst - from now on, we wont have more high-profile bank failures - already had bear, lehman with merrill, aig, fnme, fdmc saved...

the govt will need to keep pumping these with cash - which at some point will lead to hyperinflation - gold is a great long-term investment... as for short-run, im still bullish dollars... when shit hits the fan, investors flock to dollar and yen!

Where Are We in the Stock Market Cycle?

the nasdaq bubble was different, as PER were above 100 for most of them - stick to the fundamentals...
we've seen a capitulation, now liquidation - the time to buy is coming coon, if it hasnt already come...
a higher low has already been set.. from 7750 to 7966 today...
if u so much interested in history, check out historical PEs

If Only Hope Were an Investment Strategy

ur article would have made sense 2 months ago - after a crash, u want another crash???

After plunging to new lows, markets are showing some resilience. Dow -1.5% to 8161 (low: 7965). S&P -1.5% to 839 (low: 819). Nasdaq -2.3% to 1465 (low: 1429).

that's the capitulation everyone has been talking about!!!
BUY now - never seen a better time to go long!
QCOM, ADBE

Early Stimulus Wears Off

free enterprise says survival of the fittest. if the government did let it go to free-enterprise, which US banks or auto companies would make it through? not many - maybe 4 large banks and no auto - none of the big 3!

names such as Ford, GM, Chrysler, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, etc would be insolvent! They have been a big part of the american dream - hence why the government will never let these go! TOO BIG TO FAIL!

For the auto, merging all big 3 into 1 could be a good starting point.

The Chinese Have Joined In, Now What About India?

It would be tough for the Indian Government to announce such a stimulus or anywhere near that. The Indian economy is run different to the Chinese, put it down to democracy or anything else. However, I'm more convinced about the long term prospects of the Indian economy vs China. China has not faced any opposition to its policies, thanks to its communist regime, and hence has been more efficient in delivering on those. Wheras in India, any new ideas are debated, shared - entrepreneurialism is encouraged. China is developing robots while India is developing a knowledge-based economy that will be able to outperform in the long run.

China's economy is one which has been on steroids, and its performance cannot continue along the same lines. Once all countries realise the trade deficit vis-a-vis China, and root it down to their unfair currency manipulation, they may resort to protectionist measures. China will then be left with thousands of buildings that will turn into ruins.

The consumer sector, which is the driver of growth in developed countries is greater in India than China. I reckon China may find itself in the state Japan finds itself now, with over-reliance on exports, and the inability of consumers to drive growth. How much the government pumps in, it will not have any effect. China's lost decade is now starting and will be extremely painful.

How Should Adobe Be Valued?

nice to have got it overvalued... what do u think now?