User 283977

Current Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 13 - xx Part 4)

(November 27) Swine Flu Transmission Could Be Reduced By 21 Percent By School Closure

A survey carried out in eight European countries has shown that closing schools in the event of an infectious disease pandemic could have a significant role in reducing illness transmission.

Children are important spreaders of many close contact pathogens due to their frequent and intimate social contacts, their general hygiene, and perhaps their increased shedding. The reduced opportunity for contact we describe here would be a great benefit in a pandemic situation.

The researchers conclude, "If we can assume that school closure in a pandemic situation resembles school closure during holiday periods, then our results show that such a strategy would have significant impact on disease transmission, of about 21%.
www.medicalnewstoday.c...

Quick Chat #21- 11/23/09

Triple... congrats on being in the top 10!!!

Quick Chat #21- 11/23/09

Its like Christmas sale time out there. I bought some more BP, BTU, JAG and HL.

Quick Chat #21- 11/23/09

(November 26) Jaguar Mining Announces the Redemption of all of its Outstanding 10.5% Secured Notes Due 2012

finance.yahoo.com/news...

Quick Chat #21- 11/23/09

Ugg... futures are down quite a bit

Current Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 13 - xx Part 4)

I decided to do some data analysis to see if there was evidence of multiple waves in the current H1N1 pandemic. I also wanted to see how similar those waves are to the 1918 - 1919 pandemic… they appear eerily similar in timing.

Based on the similarity, it appears that if there is a third wave of H1N1, It will peek at the end of February, early March. Peek influenza season is in that time frame.

Of course, I wish I had more data and better data. If more turns up, I will augment the instablog.
seekingalpha.com/user/...

Will Swine Flu Exhibit Multiple Infection Waves?

I decided to do some data analysis to see if there was evidence of multiple waves in the current H1N1 pandemic. I also wanted to see how similar those waves are to the 1918 - 1919 pandemic… they appear eerily similar in timing.

Based on the similarity, it appears that if there is a third wave of H1N1, It will peek at the end of February, early March. Peek influenza season is in that time frame.

Of course, I wish I had more data and better data. If more turns up, I will augment the instablog.

Current Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 13 - xx Part 4)

Backed up November 25 at 2:24pm Pacific.

Quick Chat #21- 11/23/09

Happy T day to all! OG the Thanksgiving clip was wonderful.

Quick Chat #21- 11/23/09

(November 25) Gold hits new high on India talk, weaker dollar

Gold futures rose to another new high past $1,186 an ounce Wednesday, getting a fresh lift after a report said India may buy more gold from the International Monetary Fund and the U.S. dollar slid to a key level against the euro.

India's Financial Chronicle newspaper reported that the nation's central bank may buy the 201.3 tons of gold the IMF is selling on terms now being negotiated.

Such a purchase, if realized, would follow India's acquisition of 200 metric tons of IMF gold for $6.7 billion. That was almost half the total sales volume of 403.3 metric tons that the IMF's executive board approved in September.

www.marketwatch.com/st...

Current Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 13 - xx Part 4)

Here is one of the uses for that recent SVA shelf registration.
They are rapidly expanding and diversifying their production scale.
What does this say about what SVA management is seeing with respect to sales projections?

(November 25) Sinovac Expands Vaccine Capabilities with New JV

SVA inked a joint venture (JV) agreement to establish Sinovac Dalian Vaccine Technology. The JV will research, develop, produce, and commercialize human-use vaccines. Sinovac will contribute its expertise and experience in developing and commercializing world-class vaccines; Dalian Jin Gang Group will contribute its land-use rights, manufacturing facilities, and established operating infrastructure.

Sinovac Biotech will make an initial cash contribution of 60 million RMB ($8.8 million). Dalian Jin Gang Group’s asset contribution, inclusive of its manufacturing facilities, production lines, and land-use rights, has an appraised value of 140 million RMB ($22.5 million). Equity interest is divided 30% and 70% between Sinovac and Dalian, respectively. Sinovac will increase its equity shares to 55% in exchange for a cash contribution of 50 million RMB ($7.5 million), on or before December 31, 2010.

According to Weidong Yin, chairman, president, and CEO of Sinovac, the JV provides a “highly efficient platform to expand our manufacturing capacity, diversify our production capabilities, and increase our operational scale. By leveraging the favorable investment environment, Dalian's relatively low operating cost, and its existing facilities, this JV enables Sinovac to cost-effectively establish manufacturing platforms for live attenuated vaccines and vero cell cultured vaccines, thus adding another important manufacturing site for Sinovac's vaccine products.

Sinovac representatives will assume key positions at the JV including chairman, GM, head of R&D, and financial director. Sinovac Dalian will be headquartered in Dalian, Liaoning Province. The campus currently contains two vaccine production lines—one for the vero cell cultured vaccines and one for live attenuated vaccines—and has capacity to house approximately six different production lines.

Sinovac Dalian's development pipeline is expected to be composed of vaccines for rabies, mumps, varicella, and rubella. The Dalian-based facility has a designed annual manufacturing capacity of 20 million doses of vero cell cultured vaccines and 20 million doses of live attenuated vaccines.
www.genengnews.com/new...

Current Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 13 - xx Part 4)

You are correct HT, it was not NVAX, it was Protein Sciences. Their vaccine called "FluBlok" was the one that was not approved by the government advisory panel.
www.bloomberg.com/apps...

However, NVAX does indeed use caterpillar cells.... here is some more information on the issue....

VLP Technology:
NVAX scientists need only the genetic sequence of a virus to quickly create a VLP vaccine against it. Because VLPs do not contain viral nucleic acids (DNA or RNA), they cannot replicate, and therefore present no threat of infection to a person being vaccinated. Two of the leading developers, Novavax (NVAX), of Maryland, and Medicago, of Quebec City, have taken VLP flu vaccines all the way through preclinical animal testing and into human clinical trials.

However, the two companies use different manufacturing processes. Medicago grows its VLPs in transgenic tobacco plants, which are simple to manipulate, fast to grow, and easily raised in high-tech greenhouses that can be built almost anywhere. The company injects full-grown tobacco plants with genetic information from a target virus, and the plants produce VLPs in their biomass that can be extracted a few weeks later. No doubt this is the reason Philip Morris (PM) is their partner.

Novavax uses an insect cell-culture approach, growing its VLPs in a line of identical "immortalized" cells taken 20 years ago from a caterpillar called a fall armyworm. The armyworm cells are injected with a recombinant baculovirus - a virus that only infects insects--that is tweaked to resemble a targeted flu virus. The cell responds by producing and secreting VLPs that have a shell identical to that of the flu virus but contain no flu RNA. The process is performed in disposable, ready-to-use equipment.
www.technologyreview.c.../

Medicago looks like a promising company, but I suggest great caution with respect to buying their stock due to their exchange listing.

Quick Chat #21- 11/23/09

It feels like the quiet before the storm today. No OG?

Current Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 13 - xx Part 4)

(November 24) CDC: Multiple waves of flu and pandemic activity is on the rise in Eastern Europe and parts of Asia

The pandemic of swine flu may be hitting a peak in the United States, health experts said on Friday. But they stressed that influenza, especially a pandemic, could hit several peaks in a single season. They said weeks or months more of disease could be expected, Dr. Anne Schuchat told a news conference. "I wish I knew if we had hit the peak. Even if a peak has occurred, half the people who are going to get sick haven't gotten sick yet".

Meanwhile - Flu activity is widespread in 43 states now, down from 46 last week and 48 two weeks ago. Flu cases also appear to have peaked in the U.K. and parts of Western Europe, BUT (ed: my emphasis) infections are on the rise in Eastern Europe and parts of Asia, the World Health Organization said. Pandemics occur in waves. In the 1957-58 flu pandemic, one wave peaked in the fall and was followed by a second wave in January".
www.medicalnewstoday.c...

Current Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 13 - xx Part 4)

(November 24) NanoViricides Presents FluCide™ Animal Study Data At Influenza Congress - Now Improved Substantially And Vastly Superior To Current Treatment

NanoViricides, Inc. (NNVC) announced that Dr. Eugene Seymour, MD MPH, CEO of the Company, presented lifetime data from the recent FluCide™ animal study on November 19th at the Influenza Congress USA 2009 in Washington, DC. These data clearly established that the new version of FluCide™ is superior to the older version. The data also showed extremely large survival lifetime improvement compared to an extended therapy using oseltamivir (Tamiflu® Roche).

The Company has previously shown that a previous version of the FluCide drug candidate was highly effective against two different clades of the H5N1 bird flu virus, in addition to being highly effective against H1N1 in the mouse model. The Company has recently improved the FluCide drug candidate, creating what it believes to be a single drug candidate against all forms of influenza. The Company believes that the data we presented at the Influenza Conference establish this pan-influenza drug candidate as a leading anti-influenza drug in development.
www.medicalnewstoday.c...