FocalPoint Analytics's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/283977/comments http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1796411-swine-flu-and-medical-news-concentrator-april-25-2013-to?source=feed#comment-19080781 19080781 Tue, 21 May 2013 14:14:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1796411-swine-flu-and-medical-news-concentrator-april-25-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18994861 18994861 Sun, 19 May 2013 10:02:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18875751 18875751 Wed, 15 May 2013 20:30:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1848151-axion-power-concentrator-235-may-12-axion-power-completes-private-placement-for-9-million-and-1-million?source=feed#comment-18856671 18856671 Wed, 15 May 2013 13:15:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18847561 18847561 Wed, 15 May 2013 10:19:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1796411-swine-flu-and-medical-news-concentrator-april-25-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18741971 18741971 masks/ disinfectants… (APT) (MMM) (CLX) (ECL) (PURE)]]> Sun, 12 May 2013 17:28:30 -0400 masks/ disinfectants… (APT) (MMM) (CLX) (ECL) (PURE)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1796411-swine-flu-and-medical-news-concentrator-april-25-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18740291 18740291
The World Health Organization says it appears likely that the novel coronavirus (NCoV) can be passed between people in close contact. "Of most concern... is the fact that the different clusters seen in multiple countries increasingly support the hypothesis that when there is close contact this novel coronavirus can transmit from person to person," the World Health Organization said on Sunday. http://tinyurl.com/cxw...]]> Sun, 12 May 2013 15:58:30 -0400
The World Health Organization says it appears likely that the novel coronavirus (NCoV) can be passed between people in close contact. "Of most concern... is the fact that the different clusters seen in multiple countries increasingly support the hypothesis that when there is close contact this novel coronavirus can transmit from person to person," the World Health Organization said on Sunday. http://tinyurl.com/cxw...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1772021-stability-of-the-european-union-19-april-18-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18737101 18737101
The hedge shack was about QE on and off... I don't think we have a QE off event comming, but I do think a correction is on the menu. I will try to provide some different ways to play the correction, but I don't know if I will have time to get the insta out before the event...

For those of you wondering what this is all about, I have been working on a macro market model, and I noted on the Quick Chat that it's signaling the possibility for a correction starting next week. ]]> Sun, 12 May 2013 13:25:58 -0400
The hedge shack was about QE on and off... I don't think we have a QE off event comming, but I do think a correction is on the menu. I will try to provide some different ways to play the correction, but I don't know if I will have time to get the insta out before the event...

For those of you wondering what this is all about, I have been working on a macro market model, and I noted on the Quick Chat that it's signaling the possibility for a correction starting next week. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18736121 18736121 It’s not the primary signal, but an auxiliary signal. Starting on 4/29, volume dropped from around 3B daily shares to around 445M daily shares. That’s a reduction in daily volume of between 6 and 7 times the average. This is not a random occurrence,

I looked at the FED’s POMO schedule, and they are buying in May. So this appears to be a NON FED coordinated activity.

This has nothing to do with the signal I am looking at, but between the two signals, it was enough to put me mostly into cash on Friday.

I am on deadline on two production statistics projects. As soon as I finish these, I will get to work on the insta.

In the meantime, I suggest caution, and for those with risk in their hearts... it might be a good time to consider a macro short. I would be very careful with a macro short. That sudden reduction of volume by what must be a large number of pros on 4/29 makes me wonder what other coordinated activities are in the script...]]> Sun, 12 May 2013 12:49:19 -0400 It’s not the primary signal, but an auxiliary signal. Starting on 4/29, volume dropped from around 3B daily shares to around 445M daily shares. That’s a reduction in daily volume of between 6 and 7 times the average. This is not a random occurrence,

I looked at the FED’s POMO schedule, and they are buying in May. So this appears to be a NON FED coordinated activity.

This has nothing to do with the signal I am looking at, but between the two signals, it was enough to put me mostly into cash on Friday.

I am on deadline on two production statistics projects. As soon as I finish these, I will get to work on the insta.

In the meantime, I suggest caution, and for those with risk in their hearts... it might be a good time to consider a macro short. I would be very careful with a macro short. That sudden reduction of volume by what must be a large number of pros on 4/29 makes me wonder what other coordinated activities are in the script...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18696431 18696431 Fri, 10 May 2013 20:53:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18695471 18695471 Fri, 10 May 2013 20:07:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1751051-qc-256-april-12-2013?source=feed#comment-18684901 18684901 Fri, 10 May 2013 14:35:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1751051-qc-256-april-12-2013?source=feed#comment-18635121 18635121 Thu, 09 May 2013 13:58:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1772021-stability-of-the-european-union-19-april-18-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18618591 18618591
AGE 15-24 54.1 to 64.2 Increase by 18.7%
AGE 25-34 29.0 to 36.2 Increase by 24.8%
AGE 35-44 18.5 to 23.7 Increase by 28.1%
AGE 45-44 16.3 to 20.2 Increase by 23.9%
AGE 45-64 11.9 to 16.7 Increase by 40.3%
AGE 65-74 3.8 to 8.0 Increase by 110.5%

http://tinyurl.com/cnf...
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Greece’s economy is finally beginning to heal, according to the country’s finance minister.
Yannis Stournaras said “the worst is over” and the country had “reached the bottom of the trough”. http://tinyurl.com/bph...
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It all depends on what you consider success dosn't it? Mr Stournaras said Greece could be in a position to return to international debt markets by May 2014... wonderful... but at what COST? If youth unemployment continues to increase at 18.7% per year, it will be at 76.2% in 2014. What are tax revenues going to look like as larger and larger portions of the countries economy go underground? Less tax revenues means they will not be able to service the debt on those new issue sovereign bonds.
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What about existing Greek sovereign bonds?
Investment firm Morgan Stanley is urging investors to buy Greek government bonds. According to the Wall Street Journal, the head of the external strategy of the American bank said that “... Greek bonds constitute a top choice that guarantee a stable income for this year”. http://tinyurl.com/cq7...
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Want to bet what Morgan Stanley is doing with their Greek Bonds? ]]> Thu, 09 May 2013 09:15:31 -0400
AGE 15-24 54.1 to 64.2 Increase by 18.7%
AGE 25-34 29.0 to 36.2 Increase by 24.8%
AGE 35-44 18.5 to 23.7 Increase by 28.1%
AGE 45-44 16.3 to 20.2 Increase by 23.9%
AGE 45-64 11.9 to 16.7 Increase by 40.3%
AGE 65-74 3.8 to 8.0 Increase by 110.5%

http://tinyurl.com/cnf...
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Greece’s economy is finally beginning to heal, according to the country’s finance minister.
Yannis Stournaras said “the worst is over” and the country had “reached the bottom of the trough”. http://tinyurl.com/bph...
---
It all depends on what you consider success dosn't it? Mr Stournaras said Greece could be in a position to return to international debt markets by May 2014... wonderful... but at what COST? If youth unemployment continues to increase at 18.7% per year, it will be at 76.2% in 2014. What are tax revenues going to look like as larger and larger portions of the countries economy go underground? Less tax revenues means they will not be able to service the debt on those new issue sovereign bonds.
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What about existing Greek sovereign bonds?
Investment firm Morgan Stanley is urging investors to buy Greek government bonds. According to the Wall Street Journal, the head of the external strategy of the American bank said that “... Greek bonds constitute a top choice that guarantee a stable income for this year”. http://tinyurl.com/cq7...
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Want to bet what Morgan Stanley is doing with their Greek Bonds? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1751051-qc-256-april-12-2013?source=feed#comment-18602721 18602721 Wed, 08 May 2013 19:57:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1827201-axion-power-concentrator-233-may-5-axion-power-on-panel-at-energy-storage-economics-2-0-for-new-york-city-and-beyond?source=feed#comment-18576901 18576901 Wed, 08 May 2013 10:37:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1772021-stability-of-the-european-union-19-april-18-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18576721 18576721 Wed, 08 May 2013 10:34:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1827201-axion-power-concentrator-233-may-5-axion-power-on-panel-at-energy-storage-economics-2-0-for-new-york-city-and-beyond?source=feed#comment-18572741 18572741 Wed, 08 May 2013 09:22:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-interesting-times/1823941-interesting-times-for-all-commodities-and-investments?source=feed#comment-18509801 18509801 Mon, 06 May 2013 17:24:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/480016-tripleblack/1702631-ree-strategic-minerals-concentrator-march-29-2013?source=feed#comment-18473871 18473871 Sun, 05 May 2013 20:36:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/480016-tripleblack/1702631-ree-strategic-minerals-concentrator-march-29-2013?source=feed#comment-18464841 18464841 Sun, 05 May 2013 13:06:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-interesting-times/1823941-interesting-times-for-all-commodities-and-investments?source=feed#comment-18434391 18434391 Sat, 04 May 2013 02:49:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1772021-stability-of-the-european-union-19-april-18-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18365961 18365961 The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time in 10 months on Thursday and held out the possibility of further policy action to support the recession-hit euro zone economy.

Responding to a drop in euro zone inflation well below its target level and rising unemployment, the ECB lowered its main rate by a quarter percentage point to a record low 0.50 percent.]]> Thu, 02 May 2013 14:09:23 -0400 The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time in 10 months on Thursday and held out the possibility of further policy action to support the recession-hit euro zone economy.

Responding to a drop in euro zone inflation well below its target level and rising unemployment, the ECB lowered its main rate by a quarter percentage point to a record low 0.50 percent.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1751051-qc-256-april-12-2013?source=feed#comment-18342561 18342561 Thu, 02 May 2013 01:06:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1751051-qc-256-april-12-2013?source=feed#comment-18340281 18340281 Wed, 01 May 2013 22:08:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1751051-qc-256-april-12-2013?source=feed#comment-18312751 18312751 Wed, 01 May 2013 10:39:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1751051-qc-256-april-12-2013?source=feed#comment-18311771 18311771 http://tinyurl.com/ctv...
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Potential signal that the FED is going to increase interest rates?]]> Wed, 01 May 2013 10:15:01 -0400 http://tinyurl.com/ctv...
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Potential signal that the FED is going to increase interest rates?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1772021-stability-of-the-european-union-19-april-18-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18298381 18298381 ---
Twenty Signs That The Next Great Economic Depression Has Already Started In Europe

*1 The unemployment rate in France has surged to 10.6 percent, and the number of jobless claims in that country recently set a new all-time record.

*2 Unemployment in the eurozone as a whole is sitting at an all-time record of 12 percent.

*3 Two years ago, Portugal's unemployment rate was about 12 percent. Today, it is about 17 percent.

*4 The unemployment rate in Spain has set a new all-time record of 27 percent. Even during the Great Depression of the 1930s the United States never had unemployment that high.

*5 The unemployment rate among those under the age of 25 in Spain is an astounding 57.2 percent.

*6 The unemployment rate in Greece has set a new all-time record of 27.2 percent. Even during the Great Depression of the 1930s the United States never had unemployment that high.

*7 The unemployment rate among those under the age of 25 in Greece is a whopping 59.3 percent.

*8 French car sales in March were 16 percent lower than they were one year earlier.

*9 German car sales in March were 17 percent lower than they were one year earlier.

*10 In the Netherlands, consumer debt is now up to about 250 percent of available income.

*11 Industrial production in Italy has fallen by an astounding 25 percent over the past five years.

*12 The number of Spanish firms filing for bankruptcy is 45 percent higher than it was a year ago.

*13 Since 2007, the value of non-performing loans in Europe has increased by 150 percent.

*14 Bank withdrawals in Cyprus during the month of March were double what they were in February even though the banks were closed for half the month.
[The reason for these withdrawals is because the banks stole the depositors money... but in the end, there is zero doubt that Cyprus will be entering a depression as their economy has been destroyed.]

*15 Due to an absolutely crippling housing crash, there are approximately 3 million vacant homes in Spain today.

*16 Things have gotten so bad in Spain that entire apartment buildings are being overwhelmed by squatters...

*17 Child hunger has become so rampant in Greece that teachers are reporting that hungry children are begging their classmates for food. [and searching trash cans]

*18 The debt to GDP ratio in Italy is now up to 136 percent.

*19 Twenty-five percent of all banking assets in the UK are in banks that are leveraged at least 40 to 1.

*20 German banking giant Deutsche Bank has more than 55 trillion euros (which is more than 72 trillion dollars) of exposure to derivatives. But the GDP of Germany for an entire year is only about 2.7 trillion euros.

http://tinyurl.com/bl9...]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 23:04:17 -0400 ---
Twenty Signs That The Next Great Economic Depression Has Already Started In Europe

*1 The unemployment rate in France has surged to 10.6 percent, and the number of jobless claims in that country recently set a new all-time record.

*2 Unemployment in the eurozone as a whole is sitting at an all-time record of 12 percent.

*3 Two years ago, Portugal's unemployment rate was about 12 percent. Today, it is about 17 percent.

*4 The unemployment rate in Spain has set a new all-time record of 27 percent. Even during the Great Depression of the 1930s the United States never had unemployment that high.

*5 The unemployment rate among those under the age of 25 in Spain is an astounding 57.2 percent.

*6 The unemployment rate in Greece has set a new all-time record of 27.2 percent. Even during the Great Depression of the 1930s the United States never had unemployment that high.

*7 The unemployment rate among those under the age of 25 in Greece is a whopping 59.3 percent.

*8 French car sales in March were 16 percent lower than they were one year earlier.

*9 German car sales in March were 17 percent lower than they were one year earlier.

*10 In the Netherlands, consumer debt is now up to about 250 percent of available income.

*11 Industrial production in Italy has fallen by an astounding 25 percent over the past five years.

*12 The number of Spanish firms filing for bankruptcy is 45 percent higher than it was a year ago.

*13 Since 2007, the value of non-performing loans in Europe has increased by 150 percent.

*14 Bank withdrawals in Cyprus during the month of March were double what they were in February even though the banks were closed for half the month.
[The reason for these withdrawals is because the banks stole the depositors money... but in the end, there is zero doubt that Cyprus will be entering a depression as their economy has been destroyed.]

*15 Due to an absolutely crippling housing crash, there are approximately 3 million vacant homes in Spain today.

*16 Things have gotten so bad in Spain that entire apartment buildings are being overwhelmed by squatters...

*17 Child hunger has become so rampant in Greece that teachers are reporting that hungry children are begging their classmates for food. [and searching trash cans]

*18 The debt to GDP ratio in Italy is now up to 136 percent.

*19 Twenty-five percent of all banking assets in the UK are in banks that are leveraged at least 40 to 1.

*20 German banking giant Deutsche Bank has more than 55 trillion euros (which is more than 72 trillion dollars) of exposure to derivatives. But the GDP of Germany for an entire year is only about 2.7 trillion euros.

http://tinyurl.com/bl9...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1772021-stability-of-the-european-union-19-april-18-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18273001 18273001 Cyprus "lawmakers" approve "bailout".]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 12:02:16 -0400 Cyprus "lawmakers" approve "bailout".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1772021-stability-of-the-european-union-19-april-18-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18215811 18215811 Greek Lawmakers Approve "Reform Laws"
Greek lawmakers have approved "reform laws" designed to unlock €8.8 billion of rescue loans from the EU and IMF. The law, which was a condition for further aid installments, passed easily with the solid backing of the three parties comprising Greece's ruling coalition.

Where is most of the loan going?
May 20 is the maturity date of bonds totaling 5.6 billion euros. Four billion of that amount is owed to the ECB, the rest is in the portfolios of the national central banks of the eurozone. http://tinyurl.com/bq2...

So at LEAST 64% of the RESCUE loan goes to the ECB and various EU state central banks. Hence, the Greeks are bowering yet more money to repay these bonds at full market price. Bowering money to repay bowered money. I said at least because its likely that more

What's in the "Reform Laws?"
The BBC reports, some 15,000 state workers will lose their jobs by the end of next year and the new tax measures are projected to generate an additional 5.9 billion euros in state revenues [Taxes] for the period from 2013 to 2017.

Lies, Lies and More Lies:
All this after the Greek prime minister Samaras said “There will be no more austerity measures,” in a televised speech to his conservative party’s political committee on March 9th. http://tinyurl.com/bt5...

What is actually going to happen?
Tax revenues will plummet as further resentment builds against austerity and increasingly less people pay taxes, and more and more workers migrate to the shadow "cash-based" economy, where no taxes are paid at all. After all, the Greek Finance Ministry reported earlier today that March tax revenues plunged, missing the Troika target by a massive 9.3%. http://tinyurl.com/cly...
---]]> Mon, 29 Apr 2013 07:23:58 -0400 Greek Lawmakers Approve "Reform Laws"
Greek lawmakers have approved "reform laws" designed to unlock €8.8 billion of rescue loans from the EU and IMF. The law, which was a condition for further aid installments, passed easily with the solid backing of the three parties comprising Greece's ruling coalition.

Where is most of the loan going?
May 20 is the maturity date of bonds totaling 5.6 billion euros. Four billion of that amount is owed to the ECB, the rest is in the portfolios of the national central banks of the eurozone. http://tinyurl.com/bq2...

So at LEAST 64% of the RESCUE loan goes to the ECB and various EU state central banks. Hence, the Greeks are bowering yet more money to repay these bonds at full market price. Bowering money to repay bowered money. I said at least because its likely that more

What's in the "Reform Laws?"
The BBC reports, some 15,000 state workers will lose their jobs by the end of next year and the new tax measures are projected to generate an additional 5.9 billion euros in state revenues [Taxes] for the period from 2013 to 2017.

Lies, Lies and More Lies:
All this after the Greek prime minister Samaras said “There will be no more austerity measures,” in a televised speech to his conservative party’s political committee on March 9th. http://tinyurl.com/bt5...

What is actually going to happen?
Tax revenues will plummet as further resentment builds against austerity and increasingly less people pay taxes, and more and more workers migrate to the shadow "cash-based" economy, where no taxes are paid at all. After all, the Greek Finance Ministry reported earlier today that March tax revenues plunged, missing the Troika target by a massive 9.3%. http://tinyurl.com/cly...
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