ScottEX

Long Dollar, Short Oil, Hold Gold?

And I do really think the cattle market is ripe for a boom. In the end people will sell all their gold back to the central banks and they'll eat well...


On Jul 06 12:13 PM Boxed Merlot wrote:

> I understand your sentiment and I prefer a medium rare rib eye to
> a hunk of metal or printing press product when I’m weak with hunger
> too. However, once the stomach’s full, I gotta think about how to
> pay for it, or the next meal for that matter. There comes a time
> when others will stop giving me something to eat just because I’m
> hungry. It’s not unreasonable to think they may expect me to contribute
> to my own existence. Unfortunately, the people who care about the
> yellow dung metal and greenbucks are the same ones that own the cattle.
>

Long Dollar, Short Oil, Hold Gold?

It's easier to make a take care of a cow than it is to mine gold... Way easier...


On Jul 06 12:13 PM Boxed Merlot wrote:

> I understand your sentiment and I prefer a medium rare rib eye to
> a hunk of metal or printing press product when I’m weak with hunger
> too. However, once the stomach’s full, I gotta think about how to
> pay for it, or the next meal for that matter. There comes a time
> when others will stop giving me something to eat just because I’m
> hungry. It’s not unreasonable to think they may expect me to contribute
> to my own existence. Unfortunately, the people who care about the
> yellow dung metal and greenbucks are the same ones that own the cattle.
>

Long Dollar, Short Oil, Hold Gold?

In a way I tend to think the US debit is actually partly owned by the world. Maybe as Regan said it is big enough to take care of itself....


On Jul 06 09:16 AM Walter Soonenberg wrote:

> Dollar is cooked...finished. Step back a bit and get a better perspective.
> Yes, short term strength very likely but 18 months out the Grim inflationary
> Reaper will call and the dollar will further collapse. Gold in hand,
> foreign currency (Asian preferred) only hedge. The US Debt load
> is simply too large. Somehow, most "wise" investors blissfully ignore
> this fact. Long Aussie Dollar, Remimbi, Norwegian Krone.

Long Dollar, Short Oil, Hold Gold?

I was living in Japan fairly recently, it all seemed rather good. I said economic recovery is inevitable, not ginormous real estate bubble.


On Jul 06 01:17 PM optionsgirl wrote:

> economic recovery is inevitable? Tell that to the Japanese.

Long Dollar, Short Oil, Hold Gold?

They might buy more and more at Wallmart though...


On Jul 06 09:17 AM Living4Dividends wrote:

> Long Dollar, Short Oil, Hold Gold?
>
> Are you kidding me?
>
> Oil is going up. Dollar is going down - even if other currencies
> go down as well, the dollar will purchase less and less as the years
> go by.

Long Dollar, Short Oil, Hold Gold?

People have to eat. Everybody here has to forget about gold for a minute or two. The IMF is about to dump 400 metric tonnes onto the market and the Indian's aren't buying. The paper gold peddlers are going to jack up the printers and buy greenbucks, so net net. Dollar goes nowhere, gold goes down a bit.

But people still have to eat. And many a hungry mouth a'watering. Let's have a look at the Cattle market and forget this stupid yellow dung metal. Who cares.

Long Dollar, Short Oil, Hold Gold?

I would contend that economic recovery is inevitable; it's only a matter of time before the consumer can bear no more and resist no further the urge to splurge at walmart, believe it.

Likely, yes, inevitable, impossible. There could be some rogue bulls out there anyways... And I am long cattle too, very long.


On Jul 06 01:42 AM Peter Cooper wrote:

> Coming at this from another angle, I would contend that there is
> no economic recovery and that we have quite a long period before
> such a recovery starts. In this time a further stock market sell
> down is not only likely but inevitable. To bring this point home
> I just don't like what I hear about US consumers saving and not spending,
> and US states cutting spending and facing big deficits. If Arnold
> can not get it right in California this does look a major problem,
> see:
> arabianmoney.net/2009/.../

Long Dollar, Short Oil, Hold Gold?

and sniff some glue eh..


On Jul 05 10:28 PM john the babptist wrote:

> short the dollar
> long gold
> hold oil

Long Dollar, Short Oil, Hold Gold?

So let me get this right, you are long gold, and short Aussie/Cad, the two largest gold producers in the world. The Chinese sovereign wealth fund has half a trillion to spend and guess where they will be spending it. It won't be vacation homes in Florida.


On Jul 05 02:49 PM knight wrote:

> Peter you nailed it and i think this the way it will play out in
> the next 6 months. One could also short Cdn/Aussie dollar as well.
> I also think a strong correction should bring Gold down significantly
> which may be the last time to buy it cheap. Also look for Gold stocks
> which will be extremely oversold.

Long Dollar, Short Oil, Hold Gold?

Was it a weak dollar or was it rampant speculation in the derivatives market that sent oil to $147. Surely it was the weak dollar...

I believe that China, whilst continually lying about their state of economic affairs, is still much stronger than people believe. If we look at their actions of late they have been net sellers of treasuries. I feel that on balance, any flight to safety that might occur from a return of the equity markets to more realistic levels will be muted by China's disinterest in collecting USDs observed not by what they say but what they are now doing in the market, reducing their massive dollar holdings. They are shopping for physical assets now, and it seems no shortage of relative bargains for them.

As for gold, do you mean physical gold or the paper stuff traded by JP Morgan and company on the Comex. This ridiculous sham of the so called free markets makes it all rather futile to contemplate. As long as there are no regulations in the gold derivatives market, as long as the gold banks can can write unlimited options and futures contracts backed by the air in the vaults, what use is it to analyze a market that is less a market than a David Copperfield scheme.

I believe we will see some strength in the US dollar against the emerging market currencies and non-commodity industrialized currencies. Only because the emerging market will prefer to keep their currencies undervalued. There will be a move into treasuries following weakness in the equity markets coming off these highs. But oil, sorry I don't see any big drops. The oil industry is in fact under capacitated to meet world demand which I believe has no limit. Having traveled the world extensively, this is just a gut feeling. Should speculators be reigned in, perhaps it could ease somewhat. But this is ever going to happen.

Afterall we have been through with shadow banking system bringing the world economy to its knees, and all the public anger and calls for change, have we seen any. Nothing, business as usual. In fact we have many of the worst culprits in the US turning themselves into bank holding companies and pulling up to the fed's back door for unlimited cashola. Let the speculating begin!

How High Will the Price of Oil Go?

Would it seem then that going forward should the speculators do their best to drive the oil price, won't then the Saudis open the spigots, knowing as they do now the degree to which they are coupled to the American's fate? Saudi bank roll though? Don't they own Citigroup? Is there any cash left there?

I personally believe that oil will find the right level to aid the global recovery, and if higher or lower, than probably higher. The world is a lot bigger than a lot of American's realize. There is an ever increasing demand for the stuff outside of the USA's borders, more than enough to keep driving prices higher and higher. The Indians are now assembling lots of vehicles. And let's not forget the Chinese who now own a few old GM brands and have lots of cash to trade for the black gold. 33bbll. I don't think we will ever see that again.