Gtarras

Why You Need to Learn More About Dubai

seriously, what is Dubai if nothing but a 5-year long fad? i personally do not know anybody who would want to go back after satisfying their curiosity of a first visit (and these were very few people to start with). why go to Dubai, if you are European? there is enough affordable resort space in France, Spain, Portugal, Egipt and Turkey. there are even fewer reasons for Americans to fly there (the distance to start with). Dubai started as a sand desert, and will probably end as one. What a monstrous lie and black hole that was.

Why I'm Starting a Stake in Assured Guaranty

i agree that munies are fairly safe and that the govt will be bailing them out. with all sorts sources of funding drying up, the last thing the US needs is ruined reputation of muni credit. plus, in case of default, they recover on average 97%.


On Nov 27 12:03 AM TraderMark wrote:

> I used to think Munis were a suicide mission. Then I realized the
> US government will backstop everything in its power.
>
> Do you really believe they will let CA for example to default? They
> will just print money and keep handing it out.

Why I'm Starting a Stake in Assured Guaranty

Mark
I'd be very careful and tried to learn as much as you can about AGO's TruPs exposure. this asset class might cause major damage to their book. while AGO's subordination is very high in these transactions, the underlying quality is deteriorating rapidly (regional banks). deferrals are a credit event, and many banks are taking that path. my personal opinion they will take bigger hits there than the market estimates now (subordination is eroding rapidly, and we've had 130 bank defaults so far with 4x as many expected to follow).. HELOCs are also an issue. i'm also looking into AGO, but decided to stay away for now.

Can the Fed Defeat Dollar Carry Trade?

while good for consumers, deflation is horrible because it means drop in economic activity, which results in jobs lost etc etc.


On Nov 25 09:52 AM almbayrak wrote:

> "But deflation is much, much worse than inflation.". What is deflation.
> Some sort of horror movie. It is simply decreasing of prices. As
> consumers, we have to be happy about it, as company profits are increasing
> everywhere. Inflation is very bad, deflation is catastrofic. What
> is left, what is good,

Can the Fed Defeat Dollar Carry Trade?

good point about 9 dollars created out of every 1 dollar. it actually can be measured by M2/M0 ratio, which currently stands below 6. Two years ago, it was equal 8. it can be seen from this ratio that the velocity of money is dropping.

Con Ed: Slow and Steady Wins the Dividend Race

what other utilities would you recommend? TIA.

Why Do Investors Continue to Pour Money into Bonds?

retiring or about to retire baby boomers, who control most of the capital, are looking for safer havens compared with equity. i'm not surprised to see money flowing into bond funds. the process will probably continue, as they are looking to park their cash for a long time and use it over years to come. their trust in the market been destroyed after all the bubbles of the past ten+ years. on top of it, while the Fed is about to stop treasury purchases, the new class of buyers is stepping up- the banks. according to WSJ, current holdings of tresuries by banks is at record low of 1.5% overall assets, and the goal is to raise it to long-time average of 9-10%. dont ask me who is mandating the bankers to buy treasuries.

having said that, i am not advocating to go long bonds. quite the contrary, waiting for the right moment to buy TBT. but i think this moment will come much much later than most people realize, maybe years. for the above reasons. all IMHO.

Barrick Gold Confirms We've Reached 'Peak Gold'

this ironically will probably mean much much lower prices for gold. the main problem with gold as a currency is its limited amounts, which restricts golds flow and hampers growth. if the world is out of new gold, there will be even fewer reasons to use it as currency. other than that, gold serves no useful purpose to humans. short gold.

Five Charts to Rule Them All: A Telling Week for Bonds

i think its a mistake to look at funds like TLT or TBT for technical picture. instead look at ^TNX or ^TYX. they have not broken their trends yet.

Inflation Expectations on the Rise

why would the author in a separate piece suggest to go long TIPS? wont TIPS tank if interest rates rise?

Record Amount of U.S. Debt Ever Sold in One Week

you owe me 5 mins of my life wasted on the article which implied it will cover treasury issuance and instead used just one more opportunity to prop up gold. gold bugs are most annoying creatures ever. and not very smart and/or convincing at all. where are SA editors?

Why Banking Is Insolvent

Karl, why dont you do some home work before hitting that "send" button? There are about 70 million home in the US, with roughly 52 million mortgaged ones.

there was no need to read the rest of your piece.

'Cash on the Sidelines' Should Be 'Investors on the Sidelines'

oh, please, so much cyber ink. just made me even more confused. just look at this chart with history of "cash on the sidelines:

www.ritholtz.com/blog/.../

should clear it all up.

It's Time to Sell Equities and Look to These 3 Areas

personally, i am waiting until December to find out if dollar really is trash.

Bill Gross: Sell Equities, Buy Treasuries

"New normal" = "This time its different"

never works this way.