Gtarras's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/284438/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175421-why-i-m-starting-a-stake-in-assured-guaranty?source=feed#comment-778684 778684 I'd be very careful and tried to learn as much as you can about AGO's TruPs exposure. this asset class might cause major damage to their book. while AGO's subordination is very high in these transactions, the underlying quality is deteriorating rapidly (regional banks). deferrals are a credit event, and many banks are taking that path. my personal opinion they will take bigger hits there than the market estimates now (subordination is eroding rapidly, and we've had 130 bank defaults so far with 4x as many expected to follow).. HELOCs are also an issue. i'm also looking into AGO, but decided to stay away for now.]]> Thu, 26 Nov 2009 14:53:41 -0500 I'd be very careful and tried to learn as much as you can about AGO's TruPs exposure. this asset class might cause major damage to their book. while AGO's subordination is very high in these transactions, the underlying quality is deteriorating rapidly (regional banks). deferrals are a credit event, and many banks are taking that path. my personal opinion they will take bigger hits there than the market estimates now (subordination is eroding rapidly, and we've had 130 bank defaults so far with 4x as many expected to follow).. HELOCs are also an issue. i'm also looking into AGO, but decided to stay away for now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175235-can-the-fed-defeat-dollar-carry-trade?source=feed#comment-777175 777175

On Nov 25 09:52 AM almbayrak wrote:

> "But deflation is much, much worse than inflation.". What is deflation.
> Some sort of horror movie. It is simply decreasing of prices. As
> consumers, we have to be happy about it, as company profits are increasing
> everywhere. Inflation is very bad, deflation is catastrofic. What
> is left, what is good,]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 11:14:47 -0500

On Nov 25 09:52 AM almbayrak wrote:

> "But deflation is much, much worse than inflation.". What is deflation.
> Some sort of horror movie. It is simply decreasing of prices. As
> consumers, we have to be happy about it, as company profits are increasing
> everywhere. Inflation is very bad, deflation is catastrofic. What
> is left, what is good,]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175235-can-the-fed-defeat-dollar-carry-trade?source=feed#comment-777174 777174 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 11:13:17 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174593-con-ed-slow-and-steady-wins-the-dividend-race?source=feed#comment-769757 769757 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:14:03 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173229-why-do-investors-continue-to-pour-money-into-bonds?source=feed#comment-758530 758530
having said that, i am not advocating to go long bonds. quite the contrary, waiting for the right moment to buy TBT. but i think this moment will come much much later than most people realize, maybe years. for the above reasons. all IMHO.]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 10:00:38 -0500
having said that, i am not advocating to go long bonds. quite the contrary, waiting for the right moment to buy TBT. but i think this moment will come much much later than most people realize, maybe years. for the above reasons. all IMHO.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173031-barrick-gold-confirms-we-ve-reached-peak-gold?source=feed#comment-757384 757384 Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:55:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/172735-five-charts-to-rule-them-all-a-telling-week-for-bonds?source=feed#comment-755348 755348 Wed, 11 Nov 2009 10:47:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/172324-inflation-expectations-on-the-rise?source=feed#comment-753078 753078 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:05:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/169590-record-amount-of-u-s-debt-ever-sold-in-one-week?source=feed#comment-734980 734980 Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:28:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163961-why-banking-is-insolvent?source=feed#comment-695974 695974
there was no need to read the rest of your piece.]]> Tue, 29 Sep 2009 17:08:12 -0400
there was no need to read the rest of your piece.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163628-cash-on-the-sidelines-should-be-investors-on-the-sidelines?source=feed#comment-693948 693948
www.ritholtz.com/blog/.../

should clear it all up.]]> Mon, 28 Sep 2009 10:57:36 -0400
www.ritholtz.com/blog/.../

should clear it all up.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162187-it-s-time-to-sell-equities-and-look-to-these-3-areas?source=feed#comment-686855 686855 Tue, 22 Sep 2009 20:19:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/162644-bill-gross-sell-equities-buy-treasuries?source=feed#comment-686853 686853
never works this way.]]> Tue, 22 Sep 2009 20:17:39 -0400
never works this way.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161716-is-putin-s-pledge-positive-for-russia-etfs?source=feed#comment-679162 679162

On Sep 16 06:24 AM Paul Harper wrote:

> Lots of talk of $100 oil will keep investors in on RSX (imo), am
> long myself. Regarding XRU, it would seem to be too thinly traded
> for my liking.
> Are there any other Russia ETFs in the pipeline ?]]> Wed, 16 Sep 2009 12:05:49 -0400

On Sep 16 06:24 AM Paul Harper wrote:

> Lots of talk of $100 oil will keep investors in on RSX (imo), am
> long myself. Regarding XRU, it would seem to be too thinly traded
> for my liking.
> Are there any other Russia ETFs in the pipeline ?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161267-10-notes-on-risk-in-the-markets?source=feed#comment-674929 674929

On Sep 13 03:51 PM BAHRAIN CONNECTED wrote:

> SECRET THAT YOU WILL NEVER KNOW EVEN IF YOU DIE FOR IT (chart in
> instablog)
>
> All of you know what is VIX ( S&P 500 1 month expected volatility
> ) but none of you knows what was the VIX high in the last 100 years.
> This chart shows VIX during last decade that included Asian crisis,
> Russian debt default, South America crisis, Turkish Lira devaluation,
> Nasdaq bubble, September 11, 2001 and even 2008 market panic. Now,
> before I will tell you the secret, I ask you to take your time, do
> your own research and write on my website in the message or chat,
> what is the highest number you came upon. You can even count from
> 1929 if you want (this requires different matrice calculation, but
> 1929 didn't had the higher VIX what you can see from this chart,
> because VIX is derived from ATR average true range, which was no
> bigger than during other stock market crashes).
> Only few people know what was the highest historical VIX, I am one
> of them.
> From this chart the important levels are 21.17, 13.09, 54.87 and
> 90.06.
> Most institutional investors traded by this levels and bought stocks
> when DJIA was 6600 and VIX aroud 90, for the wrong reason and they
> are going to lose everything. I will share this secret only with
> traders who will submit their high VIX variation on my website. Good
> luck, split timing started.
> ]]> Sun, 13 Sep 2009 16:48:55 -0400

On Sep 13 03:51 PM BAHRAIN CONNECTED wrote:

> SECRET THAT YOU WILL NEVER KNOW EVEN IF YOU DIE FOR IT (chart in
> instablog)
>
> All of you know what is VIX ( S&P 500 1 month expected volatility
> ) but none of you knows what was the VIX high in the last 100 years.
> This chart shows VIX during last decade that included Asian crisis,
> Russian debt default, South America crisis, Turkish Lira devaluation,
> Nasdaq bubble, September 11, 2001 and even 2008 market panic. Now,
> before I will tell you the secret, I ask you to take your time, do
> your own research and write on my website in the message or chat,
> what is the highest number you came upon. You can even count from
> 1929 if you want (this requires different matrice calculation, but
> 1929 didn't had the higher VIX what you can see from this chart,
> because VIX is derived from ATR average true range, which was no
> bigger than during other stock market crashes).
> Only few people know what was the highest historical VIX, I am one
> of them.
> From this chart the important levels are 21.17, 13.09, 54.87 and
> 90.06.
> Most institutional investors traded by this levels and bought stocks
> when DJIA was 6600 and VIX aroud 90, for the wrong reason and they
> are going to lose everything. I will share this secret only with
> traders who will submit their high VIX variation on my website. Good
> luck, split timing started.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161133-einhorn-expands-ratings-agency-shorts-with-mcgraw-hill?source=feed#comment-674585 674585 Sun, 13 Sep 2009 13:03:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160567-5-reasons-to-avoid-the-gold-rush?source=feed#comment-669614 669614 Wed, 09 Sep 2009 18:44:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160248-the-top-20-russian-companies?source=feed#comment-665453 665453 Mon, 07 Sep 2009 15:57:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160248-the-top-20-russian-companies?source=feed#comment-665179 665179

On Sep 07 08:54 AM NUCLEAR1929 wrote:

> all this top20 are excellent shorts, i remember their 1998 prices]]> Mon, 07 Sep 2009 12:02:46 -0400

On Sep 07 08:54 AM NUCLEAR1929 wrote:

> all this top20 are excellent shorts, i remember their 1998 prices]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160057-ratings-agencies-lose-free-speech-immunity?source=feed#comment-662648 662648
their models and assumptions were very transparent and available to anybody interested. the folks who blame them for the losses they suffered never cared to check them, i guess, and now are looking for somebody to blame and point fingers at. i am not saying that the CRAs did not screw up. they did, big time. but their errors are not as criminal as many people are trying to make them out to be.]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 20:06:42 -0400
their models and assumptions were very transparent and available to anybody interested. the folks who blame them for the losses they suffered never cared to check them, i guess, and now are looking for somebody to blame and point fingers at. i am not saying that the CRAs did not screw up. they did, big time. but their errors are not as criminal as many people are trying to make them out to be.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160057-ratings-agencies-lose-free-speech-immunity?source=feed#comment-662646 662646
absolutely agree with your assessment of the employees at the CRAs. i personally know a lot of these folks and they are much much more honest than your average banker.]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 20:01:56 -0400
absolutely agree with your assessment of the employees at the CRAs. i personally know a lot of these folks and they are much much more honest than your average banker.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160061-when-to-be-a-contrarian?source=feed#comment-662522 662522 Fri, 04 Sep 2009 17:27:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160061-when-to-be-a-contrarian?source=feed#comment-662452 662452 Fri, 04 Sep 2009 17:00:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159833-money-supply-the-myth-of-hyperinflation?source=feed#comment-660546 660546 Thu, 03 Sep 2009 13:23:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159190-major-market-turning-point-ahead-part-i?source=feed#comment-655475 655475 great piece, thanks. Agree with you that lots of material is refreshing, especially the first half.

Confused on this paragraph though:
"Also, many markets are showing that price is now trading below the primary uptrend line established in the early stages of the rally and that pronounced bearish rising wedges have formed on declining volume. There are strong indications that this setup will produce a bearish resolution, at least in the short term."

which markets do you have in mind? thanks.


On Aug 31 06:29 PM Steven Vincent wrote:

> There is an absolute boatload of material in this report that you
> will not find anywhere else to my knowledge.]]> Mon, 31 Aug 2009 19:01:50 -0400 great piece, thanks. Agree with you that lots of material is refreshing, especially the first half.

Confused on this paragraph though:
"Also, many markets are showing that price is now trading below the primary uptrend line established in the early stages of the rally and that pronounced bearish rising wedges have formed on declining volume. There are strong indications that this setup will produce a bearish resolution, at least in the short term."

which markets do you have in mind? thanks.


On Aug 31 06:29 PM Steven Vincent wrote:

> There is an absolute boatload of material in this report that you
> will not find anywhere else to my knowledge.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159086-sentiment-overview-mixed-signals?source=feed#comment-653780 653780

On Aug 30 03:44 PM Nathaniel C wrote:

> The only market commentator I listen to is Marc Faber. He is the
> most reliable forecaster who both understands economics and market
> psychology. He says that the market will continue to rise simply
> because of the amount of money printed by central banks and fiscal
> stimulus from governments. He thinks that this strategy will boost
> prices for 12-18 months before another crisis comes. He likes gold
> and commodities (industrials less so than softs) along with shares
> in Asia.]]> Sun, 30 Aug 2009 16:36:34 -0400

On Aug 30 03:44 PM Nathaniel C wrote:

> The only market commentator I listen to is Marc Faber. He is the
> most reliable forecaster who both understands economics and market
> psychology. He says that the market will continue to rise simply
> because of the amount of money printed by central banks and fiscal
> stimulus from governments. He thinks that this strategy will boost
> prices for 12-18 months before another crisis comes. He likes gold
> and commodities (industrials less so than softs) along with shares
> in Asia.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159086-sentiment-overview-mixed-signals?source=feed#comment-653779 653779

On Aug 30 02:57 PM convertbond wrote:

> There will be a change in sentiment once this feeling of euphoria
> dwindles. Continued pain in the real estate section, and in the consumer
> debt side of things. It is on the cusp of this market rolling. Without
> the consumer, and with years of de-leveraging ahead of us, it will
> be hard to sustain this rally. No, the correction in my view will
> be W-shaped, not like the current 'V'.]]> Sun, 30 Aug 2009 16:33:28 -0400

On Aug 30 02:57 PM convertbond wrote:

> There will be a change in sentiment once this feeling of euphoria
> dwindles. Continued pain in the real estate section, and in the consumer
> debt side of things. It is on the cusp of this market rolling. Without
> the consumer, and with years of de-leveraging ahead of us, it will
> be hard to sustain this rally. No, the correction in my view will
> be W-shaped, not like the current 'V'.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158928-is-the-market-correction-finally-here?source=feed#comment-652391 652391
Everybody is expecting a move down. Estimates vary from correction to outright depression scenario. Which means its not happening, guys. The market is out there to fool as many people as possible. Personally, I think the blogosphere's sentiment is not that much different from march lows, maybe a bit more positive. Most of you guys out there missed the boat, admit it!

As for the strength of the recovery... It will be strong. Many great pieces on it out there, I''m too busy/lazy to repeat them. :) ]]> Sat, 29 Aug 2009 11:56:17 -0400
Everybody is expecting a move down. Estimates vary from correction to outright depression scenario. Which means its not happening, guys. The market is out there to fool as many people as possible. Personally, I think the blogosphere's sentiment is not that much different from march lows, maybe a bit more positive. Most of you guys out there missed the boat, admit it!

As for the strength of the recovery... It will be strong. Many great pieces on it out there, I''m too busy/lazy to repeat them. :) ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158815-market-s-continuing-theme-sell-the-dollar-and-buy-stocks?source=feed#comment-651996 651996

On Aug 28 06:02 AM redbaron wrote:

> There have been those trying to talk down the market, all the way
> along this move since March 9, and so far, they have all been wrong.
> Mark Haines, as I understand him, is just pointing out that this
> negativism has been good for this move, as the market has 'climbed
> a wall of worry' the entire way. My personal view is that the market
> was extremely oversold on the downside, and if it goes to the same
> extreme on the upside, we may well have some more to run up. It
> will correct at some point, but why not enjoy the ride until that
> happens? The futures are positive for Friday (8/28) morning again,
> and oil is also up again, so at this point, there seems to be no
> reversal in sight.]]> Fri, 28 Aug 2009 23:20:40 -0400

On Aug 28 06:02 AM redbaron wrote:

> There have been those trying to talk down the market, all the way
> along this move since March 9, and so far, they have all been wrong.
> Mark Haines, as I understand him, is just pointing out that this
> negativism has been good for this move, as the market has 'climbed
> a wall of worry' the entire way. My personal view is that the market
> was extremely oversold on the downside, and if it goes to the same
> extreme on the upside, we may well have some more to run up. It
> will correct at some point, but why not enjoy the ride until that
> happens? The futures are positive for Friday (8/28) morning again,
> and oil is also up again, so at this point, there seems to be no
> reversal in sight.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158815-market-s-continuing-theme-sell-the-dollar-and-buy-stocks?source=feed#comment-651995 651995 Fri, 28 Aug 2009 23:16:50 -0400