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Gtarras

Gtarras
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  • U.S. Downgraded by S&P - We're AA+ Now [View article]
    money markets cant hold anything that is not AAA? really? they will have to liquidate treasuries? really? i suggest you do simple google search first before hitting that "submit article" button. maybe people complain about the quality of your research because of subtle issues like these.
    Aug 5 10:29 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Downgraded by S&P - We're AA+ Now [View article]
    "Do stocks now rally because treasuries are no longer safe?"

    Really? AAA to AA+ from great folks at S&P as of today makes treasuries unsafe. really????
    Aug 5 10:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Calls on Munis and Russia [View article]
    here is a basics question. why PE of 15-20 is deemed acceptable in the US? isn't it because investor is willing to pay for 15-20 years of earnings, ie. cash flow?
    why would you pay more than 5 years of that free cash flow in Russia when you dont know who's in&out there next year (or if YOU will be allowed to be there next year). Russia's PE always been low single digits for that reason.
    Jul 5 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs: Where Danger Lurks [View article]
    not sure what you mean by repos exactly as it could mean many things. if you pointing out to liquidity risk then i agree- it could be swift and devastating. i have seen many vehicles go bust because of it. but like i said, NLY pulled it through.
    Jun 27 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs: Where Danger Lurks [View article]
    i happen to have 15 years experience of fixed income analytics and am not sure i totally agree with Alan's piece, which I think is great nontheless. i just am not sure the moves in REITS book value will be too dramatic, but then again, the ever-anticipatory market can swing the price of their stock dramatically should it get a whiff of IR change. my personal worry here is the liquidity risk the highly levered ones might run into should shit hit the fan. NLY muddled through though during the worse liquidity crisis ever, so it gives me comfort.
    Jun 26 10:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs: Where Danger Lurks [View article]
    the chart is not going through. basically it is comparison chart of VIX vs. NLY vs. DJIA
    Jun 26 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs: Where Danger Lurks [View article]
    not sure i totally agree that mREITs are correlated with vol with higher degree vs. broad market:

    finance.yahoo.com/echa...=^VIX+Interactive#char...

    i believe you mean IR vol. then again, it highly correlated with market vol.
    Jun 26 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs: Where Danger Lurks [View article]
    Alan
    i'm not sure how you arrive at conclusion that increased vol will affect all mReits. i agree that vol is tightly connected with spreads bonds pay (expected losses rise), and thus bond prices fall when market vol/spreads spike. However, this applies only to risky bonds while many of the Reits mentioned hold agency paper (rule of thumb: if leverage is higher than 3- they are loaded with agency paper). Thus i agree CIM and MFA could get hit with higher vol, yet others wont. OTOH, CIM and MFA wont get as much punished with rates going higher as their leverage is low.

    Also, curious if anybody here saw a great chart of 10 year rate going back to 1800s? the chart shows that after prolonged period of higher rates (30+ years) the US rates stay very low for extended periods- look at period 1930-1950s. This is where we might be today. the past 30 years declining rates allowed people pile up debt, while refinancing at ever declining rates, we are at stoppage point now. but higher rates will mean lot of defaults/losses- so the govt wont allow it to happen- they will intervene with gusto - we have just started to observe that. i believe we are in at low rates environment for much longer than 1-2 years- think Japan.
    Jun 26 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Q1 Earnings Call: More Questions and Confusion [View article]
    Youtube just added a huge database of major Russian studio movies to its website. All free and quality is great. Russians, check it out here:
    www.youtube.com/user/m...
    Whatever Netflix fans say, IMO, this is a "canary sign". Other Russian studios will follow for sure. And then Chinese, Indian, Canadian, American? Who knows. It is your money.
    Apr 27 12:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Netflix's International Ambitions Justified and Achievable? [View article]
    thanks. i'm just very numbers oriented and they just dont add up for me in case of Netlix valuation. i agree growth is and will be there, story is great etc etc but we have seen this movie already. time will tell!
    Mar 12 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Netflix's International Ambitions Justified and Achievable? [View article]
    balazs
    as a naturalized US citizen from Eastern Europe, I would caution you to bet on international expansion. I 'm currently using Russian streaming service to watch movies online, which (surprise!) charges $10/month. Quality is just like netflix's. Where they get the content from, I have no idea. Looks like they have a deal with Russian TV channels (40+) and so customers get all current and old TV content including movies. All sorts, including many new Hollywood ones that Netlix can NOT get their hands on (due to legal rights probably??).

    Why is it important? Because after this experience, I am convinced there no way Netlix will penetrate Chinese/Indian/Brazilian etc markets. Reasons? Cultural, language related etc, and, critically, these countries do not have same legal infrastructure US/Canada have, thus folks over their can get content next to nothing. Already Russians in Russia watch only pirated movies which are easily downloadable. You can easily download RECENT blockbusters from .ru servers, not to mention old stuff. Piracy/legal rights situation in China/India is even worse than in E Europe. And, dont forget local competition, which will be ferocious. Bottom line, i 'm convinced that there is ZERO chance Netflix will be able to make money internationally outside of US/Canada. did Amazon succeed anywhere else?

    And btw, it struck me how quickly this "Russian Netlix" sprung up- there is no doubt in my mind that setting it up is SIMPLE. Its all about negotiating for content. And, over there, i am certain they just "take it".

    Now, Netlix trades at 31 2012 PE. So, if they saturate America market in 2-3 years, their PE will be (what?) 20-30 at current price? Assuming costs stay the same?

    I 'm also convinced DVDs will soon follow the path of CDs. With 2/3 of NFLX earnings coming form DVD rentals, this source will dry up quickly. And while Netlix is great, its current $11 billion valuation is not. Remember, max Blockbuster val was 50% of that.
    Mar 12 03:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Netflix's International Ambitions Justified and Achievable? [View article]
    "And for the BIG surprise... NFLX's plans to integrate their streaming technology within Facebook is brilliant."

    curious what exactly this integration is??? do you know?
    Mar 11 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Investors Are Buying Stocks Now [View article]
    my own non-scientific measurement of SA author/commentator market sentiment is 50/50 bullish/bearish. sharp contrast to mid-2009 with 90% of folks were very negative.
    Mar 6 02:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • “They never really (look) under the covers, which is what I have done all my life," says corporate intelligence kingpin Jules Kroll, bringing his sleuthing skills to the bond rating industry. “What does he know about giving me a rating on a security?” asks an unimpressed Dick Bove, perhaps forgetting better information may have prevented this classic boner.  [View news story]
    what does Kroll know about MBS and CDOs? structured products collaterized by small mom and pop loans is what blew up the street, not corporate bond market. Rating agencies need better math folks (i know their models quite well, they suck). What new corporate dirt digger brings to the table? i'm skeptical.
    Feb 27 11:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Traders Beware: Potential VXX Short Opportunity for Today [View article]
    good idea, but with VIX bumping alongside its major support and close to lows, isn't it prudent to wait?
    Feb 14 09:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
412 Comments
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