Gtarras

When to Be a Contrarian

great article. what is the best source in your opinion to go about getting the data that tells you how much institutions are invested in the market?

When to Be a Contrarian

expect a lot of angry bears trashing your piece!

Major Market Turning Point Ahead (Part I)

Steven
great piece, thanks. Agree with you that lots of material is refreshing, especially the first half.

Confused on this paragraph though:
"Also, many markets are showing that price is now trading below the primary uptrend line established in the early stages of the rally and that pronounced bearish rising wedges have formed on declining volume. There are strong indications that this setup will produce a bearish resolution, at least in the short term."

which markets do you have in mind? thanks.


On Aug 31 06:29 PM Steven Vincent wrote:

> There is an absolute boatload of material in this report that you
> will not find anywhere else to my knowledge.

Sentiment Overview: Mixed Signals

yea, Marc Faber told us sometime early in the spring that we will see 3000 Dow before its all done. then we turns on a dime and now tells us that we will be on the rise all the way into 2010? please.


On Aug 30 03:44 PM Nathaniel C wrote:

> The only market commentator I listen to is Marc Faber. He is the
> most reliable forecaster who both understands economics and market
> psychology. He says that the market will continue to rise simply
> because of the amount of money printed by central banks and fiscal
> stimulus from governments. He thinks that this strategy will boost
> prices for 12-18 months before another crisis comes. He likes gold
> and commodities (industrials less so than softs) along with shares
> in Asia.

Sentiment Overview: Mixed Signals

it really does not feel like euphoria yet. relief is probably more accurate stage. followed by optimism, excitement, thrill and then euphoria. my personal read of SA publisher/commenter sentiment is 80%- bearish, 20% - "scared to admit we are bullish, because we will be trashed by all these bears". GL.


On Aug 30 02:57 PM convertbond wrote:

> There will be a change in sentiment once this feeling of euphoria
> dwindles. Continued pain in the real estate section, and in the consumer
> debt side of things. It is on the cusp of this market rolling. Without
> the consumer, and with years of de-leveraging ahead of us, it will
> be hard to sustain this rally. No, the correction in my view will
> be W-shaped, not like the current 'V'.

Is the Market Correction Finally Here?

So I've read this article and gone through the comments. And I saw just one poster who tried to sound somewhat bullish. Just one!!

Everybody is expecting a move down. Estimates vary from correction to outright depression scenario. Which means its not happening, guys. The market is out there to fool as many people as possible. Personally, I think the blogosphere's sentiment is not that much different from march lows, maybe a bit more positive. Most of you guys out there missed the boat, admit it!

As for the strength of the recovery... It will be strong. Many great pieces on it out there, I''m too busy/lazy to repeat them. :)

Market's Continuing Theme: Sell the Dollar and Buy Stocks

i am personally amused by claims of most bloggers, including those on SA, that the current sentiment is too bullish. huh? maybe it is not so negative as it used to be in March, but it is still overhelmingly bearish. i am being trashed everywhere i leave a comment suggesting we are still going up.


On Aug 28 06:02 AM redbaron wrote:

> There have been those trying to talk down the market, all the way
> along this move since March 9, and so far, they have all been wrong.
> Mark Haines, as I understand him, is just pointing out that this
> negativism has been good for this move, as the market has 'climbed
> a wall of worry' the entire way. My personal view is that the market
> was extremely oversold on the downside, and if it goes to the same
> extreme on the upside, we may well have some more to run up. It
> will correct at some point, but why not enjoy the ride until that
> happens? The futures are positive for Friday (8/28) morning again,
> and oil is also up again, so at this point, there seems to be no
> reversal in sight.

Market's Continuing Theme: Sell the Dollar and Buy Stocks

if you sell the dollar, what do you buy the stocks with?

The Real Cause of Foreclosures: No Skin in the Game

dont you still have to pay with ruined credit history if you walk?

BBQs, Beer and Contrarian Investment Indicators

I'll tell you, this has been a real hit at weddings and cocktail hours - people think I'm nuts when I say "Hey, we're in the Fourth Turning...get used to it, we're screwed!"


Hahaha!!! I am a huge fan of this book as well, and too was bugging people at parties with it... get same response..

Why We Can't Trust Market Signals

thats right!! as we sit here currently, the CDS traders are taking bets that the CDS levels will have more room to widen (hey, its just a trade, right?). And all these CDS contracts are highly correlated, thats correct, so, widen they all do.

Well, this technical trade is starting to suffocate the economy. Since the wide CDS translates into huge borrowing costs, this translates into more lay-offs, -> slower activity... etc -> even wider CDS levels.. on and on it goes...

How is it for a new kind of bubbles, a "short trade" one?

No Use Crying over the World Bank Report

I keep stating here that the economists and simple folks in the emerging markets will tell you many bad things about WB and IMF reports, analysis and recommendations. Latin American countries, emerging Asias, Eastern Europe all suffered greatly following these "competent" folks advisory.

Stocks Will Fall 37% or Gold Will Rally 60%

just one more angle on why gold will run. pretty poor one at it, IMO. why take MEDIAN ratio of S&P to gold, not MEAN??? and what does it all mean, anyway? where the data is coming from? this is one very poor analysis. just another example of "we take a thesis and fit the numbers around it".

Dow 6500 in 6 Months or Less?

Please be stylish next time and back up your hype with numbers! LOL.

A Tale of Two Economies: U.S. vs. China

"the U.S. dominates as the largest dead-beat the world has ever seen – trying its best to borrow the surpluses of all the world's productive economies."

Jeff, which country produces most of the world's innovations, US or China? Where does improvements in productivity come from? The smart technologies etc? What does China offer other than plain labor? Iam simplifying a bit here, but you get the picture?

BTW, US GDP is about twice the size of the Chinese, no? China, without any doubt is the fastest growing economy, with high work ethic, but beating down on the US is pretty lame, IMO.