Gtarras

Barrick Gold Confirms We've Reached 'Peak Gold'

this ironically will probably mean much much lower prices for gold. the main problem with gold as a currency is its limited amounts, which restricts golds flow and hampers growth. if the world is out of new gold, there will be even fewer reasons to use it as currency. other than that, gold serves no useful purpose to humans. short gold.

Record Amount of U.S. Debt Ever Sold in One Week

you owe me 5 mins of my life wasted on the article which implied it will cover treasury issuance and instead used just one more opportunity to prop up gold. gold bugs are most annoying creatures ever. and not very smart and/or convincing at all. where are SA editors?

It's Time to Sell Equities and Look to These 3 Areas

personally, i am waiting until December to find out if dollar really is trash.

5 Reasons to Avoid the Gold Rush

here is my observation: i noticed than folks who argue in favor of gold are usually old school, grey haired kind. my take on that is the younger generation grew up with other tools that the author mentions and simply do not see value in gold as a hedge. well, maybe as one of the many currently available. i personally am on with Buffet on it, and while dollars are fiat, same is gold. i can not eat it, etc etc. but i can easily convert my fiat money into something valuable... in short, i dont get gold bugs. and personally will be using TBT, TIPS etc as inflation hedge.

Rise of the Silver Surfer and Mortgage Insurance Wasteland

Mortgage guy explained it the best. The bottom line for these three companies is the fact that the amount of claims they have paid out over the past 1.5 years, which are as you know were horrible for anything mortgage related, were just slightly higher than the revenue they have generated.

The problem they face, and the reason the stock prices are beaten down so much (I believe), lies in the regulatory realm of things:

First of all, they have to build up reserves based on the delinquencies they have in their books. These cos have built the reserves that are in multiples of their annual claims paid (even for 08-09). The reserves drain their liquidity, so the market is concerned they wont be able to pay on their debt due in two-three years. Remember, it takes forever for them to pay claims after a borrower becomes delinquent (if they default).

Also, because of reserve build up, there is a concern they might be forced to stop writing business, because the amount of risk they take on vs. the capital they have (which is being more and more restricted by the reserve issue) is limited by the regulators. Thus, MGIC had to play the regulatory trickery with the new entity set-up.

I am not an investor in any of them, but back in previous life worked at one of them (12 years ago). I do find their situation fascinating though, as so many confluent factors are affecting their balance sheets and valuations. For example, if things start to turn around in the housing market, and MIs will be able to reduce reserves, watch out.

I do think they will survive, and so few analysts that upgraded MGIC in the past few days following their report.

On Jul 19 07:27 PM Economic Disconnect wrote:

> The Mortgage Guy,
> Thanks for the in depth comment. You clearly have a real understanding
> of this issue. I appreciate your input. Do you think both MTG and
> PMI go on, or will one win out?

Rise of the Silver Surfer and Mortgage Insurance Wasteland

As far as MGIC is concerned, you clearly have no clue how the insurance business works. Neither do the financial media people who write the headlines. Thats the reason you get shocked when you see the stock price charts in your piece. For example, you write :"MTG is basically done." Ahmmm. NO. I dont mean to be a smart ass, but this business is not easy to understand, especially the reporting and regulatory sides of it. maybe it'd make sense not to write about it in such an assertive way?

Predicting the Next Great Bubble

the current bubble we live through is the short trade. especially pronounced in debt market with the recent invention of a CDS product, which allows to capture not 100% return, but an unlimited one. the short trade bubble blowers succeeded in destroying Lehman, bear etc, put the whole economy in jeopardy via the destabilization of the financial system, and are trying to capitalize on fear even further. By my assessment, majority of people on SA are bearish. WHY? Most likely they have some sort of a short position in the market. And lets face it, the SA audience are the top earners, and collectively do influences the markets.

The 600 Year Silver Bear Market

Please share with us what uses silver has?


On Jun 18 11:34 AM GMiki1 wrote:

> Silver has many, many new uses and is in shortage. Silver is erratic--mercurial--but
> it will explode sometime soon...

Investors Are Ganging Up on the U.S. Dollar and Gold

Finally!! A well balanced thesis, with issues and possible outcomes highlighted, without any hype. Thank you!

Resurgent Russia Discharging Dollars

This article is not about Russia. Its about why dollar (the POS currency) will crash, and gold will shine. Just one more gold bug peddling his book in their usual fashion: take a thesis and massage the facts to fit them into the thesis.

Nothing new in the article about the country, but i agree, some facts are off. For example, the one the whole thing was written for: the Central Bank of Russia reported that the dollar is still its main holding, and the reports that it is being replaced by euro were erroneous.

The more stuff like this I see, the more I want to short gold.


On Jun 03 11:14 AM likbez wrote:

> Beware. This article demostrates a very naive, extremely weak understanding
> of the Russia and the region. For example most of Russia landmass
> are semi-inhabited areas with permafrost and population density lower
> then Alaska.
>
> As for population, there is a significant influx of migrants from
> nearby states as pay in Russia is much better.

Stocks Will Fall 37% or Gold Will Rally 60%

just one more angle on why gold will run. pretty poor one at it, IMO. why take MEDIAN ratio of S&P to gold, not MEAN??? and what does it all mean, anyway? where the data is coming from? this is one very poor analysis. just another example of "we take a thesis and fit the numbers around it".

Why Gold Enthusiasm Is 'Cool' Again

My conviction is that all of you guys who are betting on negative things to accelerate (seems to be majority on SA), are going against the FED.. Do you really need to fight this gorilla?? The US govt is not at all interested in economic conditions worsening, and will do whatever it takes. Most importantly, the rest of the world govts will comply and help. I am also convinced that the agencies (of course under pressure if needed), will do the right thing. Same with bankers. There is a lot of tongue-in-chick gaming going on, I am so sure of that after 15 years on the street.. Bet against it all you want. Complain here, write the smart articles. The US wont crash. There is no inflation now. It will pick up later, but the FED has tools to suck it out of the system. Anyway, i am swimming with the biggest shark of all.


On May 23 06:55 AM BiggisNikk wrote:

> Come on, Gtarras, You think this economy is as poised for an economic
> boom as we were right after WW2? And Japan, a creditor nation vs,
> our lame debtor's club? And just so you get a little learning on
> credit ratings, they are not relative-to ratings. It is possible
> that all the governments of the world could be downgraded. There
> is no "grading on a curve." As for inflation, try measuring it the
> way we used to before they started massaging the statistics at shadowstats.com.

Why Gold Enthusiasm Is 'Cool' Again

All of a sadden the US AAA rating is the hottest subject. Shows once again, that investors are sheep. Your rhetoric is unreal. So what that debt jumped to $11 trillion? It is still 86% of GDP. After WWII the ratio for the US was about 150%, and still AAA rating was there. BTW, Japan's today ratio of debt to GDP is 220%....

Apparently, the herd needs to hear from Bill Gross (who, as usual, is talking his book), to start screaming that AAA rating is about to get slashed... Really? Then WHO/WHAT deserves AAA rating? Germany? Assured Guarantee? And what is a "AAA" rating???

Also, inflation is real?? When???


On May 22 01:46 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> It won't go away. I can’t think of a better reason to keep a core
> long term position in gold than the prospect of the US losing its
> triple “A” rating. The chatter about this yesterday took the barbaric
> relic up to a two month high of $958, a mere $50 from an all time
> high. Quite honestly, I never understood why the American rating
> has stayed this high for this long. If any other entity had increased
> their debt from $5 trillion to $11 trillion over the last eight years,
> then boosted it to $13 trillion over the last three months, their
> rating would have been slashed ages ago. Like to the level of Zimbabwe.
> Is it any surprise that gold demand soared by 38% in Q1, according
> to the World Gold Council? And now the Russian Central Bank is allowing
> other banks there to pledge gold as collateral. Keep your gold position
> so you don’t miss the inevitable gaps up, as well as miners, like
> Barrick Gold (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).

Donald Luskin: Gold and the Upside-Down Bell Curve

Why is he still around? The guy got some nerve. Luskin has been consistently WRONG over the past 5 years that I occasionally paid attention to what he had to say. It is simply unbelievable, forgive my rant. I actually did listen to him and wasted my time and money.


On Apr 28 09:48 AM logicalthought wrote:

> Luskin's an idiot. As the housing market was clearly cracking and
> the economy was clearly beginning its downspin, Luskin was on Kudlow's
> show night after night saying that everything was great and "the
> bears" had no idea what they were talking about. Oh, and besides
> being an idiot, he's also rude and annoying.

Are We More Like 1932 - or 1923?

Huh? you call these little Gulf conflicts wars? LOLOL!!! Have you read a single book on the 20s-30s-40s?? Hint: "Casablanca" does not count. Have you LIVED anywhere outside of peachy USA? Jezuz Christ, I am not really sure you know what real hardship is!!!


On Apr 09 10:37 PM Bill S. Friend wrote:

> Laugh Out Loud indeed. The paralells are certainly there including
> a huge expenditure on a war on two fronts. Unemployment is still
> rising and a social unrest is brooding as Wall Street raids the nations
> coffers. The government continues to fudge the numbers and Bernake
> cannot answer the questions while looking you in the eye. History
> is all we have to draw comparison, and we would be foolish not to
> learn from our mistakes.