capt Brian

Economic Outlook, Current Conditions and Investment Strategy

Read my old articles, and comments, and I am even more moving out of dollars and even out of PM's and into numismatics, I bought scrap metal with my dollars, traded up to nice krugs, eagles, etc, and am now trading (almost all gone now) for numismatics. This market cannot continue to ignore reality, and MUST correct, I have only "day trade" stocks, [meaning I am very short term] and buying DUG at every pinnacle for oil. Keep your shorts dry [meaning get them ready] and suggest a 2nd look at weath storing. Forget Art, Antiques, and Real Estate, the old by-words for savings. Those markets are dead for the forseable future, but precious metals and even more numismatics 'travel well', if you get my meaning.


grins to ya

Capt Brian
the Lost Navigator

E*Trade: Very Undervalued

Well, Etrade has some very poor background, lying to the people regarding their exposure to sub-prime, [just check back at the beginning of this mess,] when their stock was about $26. They suckered me in big time, believing them, but they were greatly exposed, hence their penny stock routine. I feel their people need to spend some time breaking rocks in a nice place in the sun for a few years to keep them away from little investors like me.

By the time I woke up to reality, it was just in time to catch the last of the drop in price, and I recoverd a little bit with put options.

This company should not be allowed to survive and the investors (account holders) should be given time to exit gracefully before they are squashed like the last covey of stockholders.
When are we going to require people in business to be responsible to their peers and custotmers?

Never probably
There, vent over.

Disclosure: Not being an emotional person, I believe too, they will survive and move up in price, that being said I must leave you now to put in my order, and the above comentary is probably correct.

Happy grins

Capt Brian
the lost navigator

Gold: Top or Does This 'Lousy Investment' Have a Long Way to Go?

If you will check my ancient comments [from the last year or so] I have been bullish on gold and silver, and have stripped myself of cash in almost an insane plunge into the icy waters of investing too much in anything. I now wish I had more cash, and regret my family has hogtied me and not allowed me to sell my real estate to buy silver. So I snuk out and bought a bunch of platinum high grade coins PF70 and one coin of gold that is a one pop and nearly insane purchase,... so what now? Simple, I said I would not buy gold over $1000, nor silver over $15. Why? Not because I feel the top is here, but I can get more bang for my buck with some special numismatics, and now I have switched my focus from that to palladium. At the $330 level, it is affordable again, and there is palladium to be had with the Canadian Maple Leaf. Oh, I am still slobbering over Platinum and negotiating on load of it this morning after I have my tea.

BUY precious metals physical, forget the stocks, funds, etc,
BUY now, sell later.. hurry.

BTW: GREAT ARTICLE but forget the tea leaves [charts] go for reality. what the world is doing, industrial metals like platinum and palladium are the way to go. Go to websights, and find out about the new silver platinum and palladium.

Happy investing
Capt Brian
the Lost Navigator

What Is Hurting Gold?

Everything you say is NOT making me happy, I want gold to fly into the stratosphere. I have been buying it, and its sister metal silver, and even some platinum, and have been waiting like a bridesmaid for a suitor of my own for gold to rise up. But, all the things you say are absolutely correct and I couldn't agree more. BUT!!!! I say, BUT AND HOWEVER!!!!! All of these reasons for holding gold down are playing right into the intelligent investors hand. It will be our Royal Flush, our Run for the Rose, and our place in the winners circle. Gold will do precisely what the worlds market tells it to. In golds mirror will reflect exactly what is happening in the world, and for now, this recovery is just testing our mettel to see if we can stop bickering, and begin trading. I for one, do not think the tiger is going to lose his stripes nor the leopard his spots. I think the greedy human race, who wants to have it all with out working, will cause more strife in the financial markets, impatience will cause more infidelity, and eventually the PM's will truly shine. Those of us who have put a prudent amount of our hard earned money into Gold and its kin should be amply rewarded, (in this lifetime) an probably during the next 3 years. It may take a little bit into the next presidency, ( I cannot see many voting for Obamma next time) and the wheels that have begun to turn economically will surely cause metals to rise. I am simply believing in a tribulation afoot, a downturn, and a need for real money. And with that, I am ordering more numismatics (actually bought 3 more coins today) {putting money where mouth is} and in wait and see attitude. I continue to day trade stocks, gold and silver, and buying more PM's on dips.

Good luck, stay in cash mostly...

happy grins

Capt Brian
The Lost Navigator

Prepare Yourself for the Inflation Invasion

Listening [reading] guru prediction of hyperinflation, deflation and stagflation senarios are like listening to Christmas Carols. They don't change over the years. Yes, this year, the singing is louder, and with more carolers. HOWEVER, there is something that everyone seems tot be missing. Gold, silver, and the etc.'s [PM's = precious metals] ARE moving up. Keep staring at a chart of the metal since about 18 years ago, or just go back to November of last year. Everyone is waiting for Gold to go up. Ahem, (Pssssst...) has anyone noticed[?], [T]he metals are moving up, and nicely too. In fact, if they moved up any faster, I would be afraid of a blowoff top, and a major correction. This time, the PM's are simply making a nice pattern of lower left to upper right. Isn't that what holders of investments like to see. I am not selling any PM's except to get a better grade of 'stuff'. I just started trading my Krugs and double eagles for numismatics, which in my opinion will be very interesting. An 1870 something or other, just went for over $70,000 at the auction. Hmmm. So I am beginning to slightly belive in the demand of the emerging countries, wanting toys of all kinds, and the markets are saying, things will be okay after all. So.. I am trading my scrap metal, (mine rounds etc) in for nice shiny objects in plastic slabs. Anyone ever heard of "Impressions of Liberty"? This may be the new way to invest in metals, coins.
well, go have fun, but don't think this wave of nasty economic times is over. Plug in your computer browser, "Major Detroit Grocery stores". And read on. there is trouble afoot, so buy low and sell high. I cointinue to say, buy gold under $1000, and silver under $15, and platinum under $1300.00. Hang on. Don't sell, you will know when.

Happy Grins
The Lost Navigator
Capt. Brian

Armageddon Part Two: Securitization Is Too Big to Fail

THIS NAVIGATOR IS NOT SOUNDING THE ALL CLEAR, I am saying still, stay in port. You ain't seen nuttin yet hunny!

Capt. Brian
The Lost Navigator

Coming Soon: Banking Crisis of Historic Proportions

I wonder if anyone will go back and read some of my posts weeks and months ago. Have to sift thru almost 200 of them, but I have been saying all along this was coming. In fact, I am suprised it is taking so long to blow a hole in the bottom of our ship of state. It took the captain quite a while to admit the Titanic was going to meet Davey Jones. I have seen this coming for over 40 year, at least since I was in a foxhole in Nam. Our fiscal policies just cannot and will not work. I don't care if you are a mom and pop store on the corner, or the richest country in the world, you just cannot keep taking money out of the piggy bank at a rate higher than you replace it. You MUST eventually go broke, even with the ability to make you own money.

There is a way out of this mess because people do not want bad times, they do not want to 'hunker down', and protect their homes, lives, and food in the house. We don't want to have to fight for anything anymore, we have already fought and died for life liberty and the pursuit of happiness, and it is being ripped from our grasp. We are grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory, and we are allowing it to happen. Go ahead, ask me, is there a quick way out of this mess? YES YES YES, THERE IS!!! But seems no one in charge cares about anything but their own situation. Obamma rented a multi-million dollar estate for a vacation, while millions are living out of their homes. What is wrong with this picture. Socialism and facism for all but our leaders. They jam things down our throats and take other medicine for themselves in the form of raises and medical plans that we cannot have.

Go ahead voters, you have one chance left to save this country on the edge of the abyss, and that is the election coming up, unless you can find some legal way to change the people in Wash. D.C. quicker.

Woe is us, we have met the enemy and he is us.

Capt. Brian.
The Lost Navigator
happy grins.

SOMEONE HAS TO TAKE RESPONSIBILITY
ps I am a former marine, and feel very sad for my comrades in arms who may have died for nothing.

Gold Under Fire After FOMC Announcement

Technical trading is fine, made a bunch of money in the short term with the tea leaves (charts). I have made the bulk of the profits by simply adding to my PM physicals on price dips, and staying away from the general equity markets except day trades. Gold is slowly (and silver) moving up in response to the problems the dollar is manufacturing for itself. Social programs, being put on us will work until the money runs out. Then, like Rome, Russia, England and many others who have tried socialism, will not work here either. Somehow we allow our leaders to be the Judas goat. They are actually cutting their own throats along with ours. In the meantime, if the government does not rein in their spending, then it will result in the same effect as if we were spending more than we have [individually]. What basically has to happen is normal economic realities will surface, take control, and be apparent and will remain in power until things level out again. If ever. For those times ahead, unless the government takes all the gold, (which I feel they will not do because there is not enough to even make a dent in what is really owed or will be owed). In the meantime, as they ruin the dollar even more, the PM's will continue to move up. I have moved from junk silver and gold (commemoratives and 'things' of that ilk) to bullion bars rounds eagles (both silver and gold) and now switching this time to more sophisticated PM investment, rare coins. As I increase my holdings, it becomes more and more difficult to rationalize holding piles of metal. Storage becomes more and more expensive, and logistically difficult. So with good numismatics being the new thing, coins that are clearly collectables, [not just a pile of silver eagles or mine rounds] should not be taken by the government as they were left alone with the law as in the past. I feel that same template will be honored as the actual bullion gleaned from ruining collections would not solve much in the scheme of the debts they [the goverment] is piling up. Also, like diamonds [which I would never invest in], a nice rare coin can suck up a lot dollars, to be held while things sort themselves out. With our new auto tags going up 35%((in Florida) ( I just bought two years and the guy at the tag office told me to buy 2 years to avoid the increase next year) next year, taxes increasing to pay for all the new wonderful changes coming, ( and you can believe in that change, [more taxes]), it equals inflation, which will not be hidden. Look at the oil price up almost $2.00 today as I write this note. Don't you get the feeling that gold and silver (especially silver) which could become the new money, the global currency, will soon begin an interesting response to the programs happening worldwide? I, for one, see no problem with higher metal prices. nd that is the bottom line,. OH.. you want to know when, NOW stupid! look where gold was in Nov, and look where it is today. Forget the charts, gold is rising, I am buying on dips and holding.

Good luck America,
You are gonna need some luck, because the financial storm coming is gonna make the last 3 years look like the first dance.

Capt Brian
The lost navigator

August Buying Time for Gold

Fine, nice article, wish it was the 1st one I have read with the same words. WHEN WHEN WHEN!!!!!..

I am in total agreement, but don't know when.

Capt. Brian

happy grins

Gold and Silver: The Only Attractive Investment Option

WHEN?!? For goodness sakes, gold has done nicely since November, when, [if u lQQk back in my comments] is when I started to buy gold. LQQk how it has held its position above $900, and is still on a long term up trend. So go against the trend. I just traded a bunch of gold for one coin. I am selling a lot of scrap silver and gold to buy more silver eagles with. THERE is the real money. Food investing, I thought, would be a great place. But, food prices (investmentwise) have not risen as much as gold and silver, which are kind of tied together in the futures market.

I have not softened my stance on buying PM's [precious metals] and am more and more bearish on stocks and the economies of the world. There is however, [as usual] a bogey. That is demand. One must always look at demand for worlds goods. For the moment, the big users, USA, Europe, and China and now the emerging countries. A lot of demand has been stifled beginning with the biggest item, OIL. Other things will be totally re-thought out before buying, TOYS. Un-necessary items will fall by the wayside. Plastic toys for tots, parents will not be wasting a bunch of hard saved money on things like that and many other unnecessary items. Savings have been brought into the picture finally. Now, those savings will not be put into junk items, and anyone who has disposable income, will dispose it to a savings account. Homes which were ravaged for money for toys, with the current crisis in Real Estate, and employment, if one has a home, they will direct money to saving that, instead of an extra SUV or vacation.

This world is changing, but people still need food clothing and shelter, so that is where I would focus my investments. To companies that provide the above.

In keeping with all of that, inflation, [in my mind] will come back and pretty heavy this time. So.. think about your investments as if you can only buy one this year, and you cannot sell it til the year is over.
That may be where u should look.
My advice is to buy single premium, deferred annuities. I am doing that, and numismatic coins, and gold, silver, and platinum. I have not gotten any paladium yet.

Happy navigating

happy grins

Capt Brian
The Lost Navigator

Taking an Honest Look at GDP Calculation

Good article. It just points out just how figures don't lie, but liars can figure. I think, all one has to do is look around you and see what is going on. If it were not for the government rescuing all the bad guys and poor businesspeople, we would be in a depression caused by our own financial crime lords.

Does this mean I can spend my way out of financial trouble, borrow more and more to pay for the debt I have incurred and never worry about paying it back.

Truth of it is, that could happen to an individual for a while then go bankrupt, well it is no different for a government. They will go bankrupt too no matter how much they borrow, tax or print. The horrible day for Americans is moving closer and closer. Our enemies must be laughing at us and waiting for us to finally self distruct.

Gird your loins, put some real money away, this thing is not in recovery, nor are we seeing green shoots, rather weeds.

Capt. Brian
grins to ya

Examining Gold in 3 Timeframes

Tea leaves, all the gurus, all the mistakes. No one is looking at reality... and it scares me a lot More and more I like annuities. More and more I am reading less and less and looking out the window. I don't know beans, but I do know economics. I understand what causes unemployment. PEOPLE NOT BUYING THE PRODUCTS OF A GIVEN COMPANY RESULTS IN THE EMPLOYEES BEING LAYED OFF IN LARGER AND LARGER NUMBERS UNTIL THE COMPANY SELLS ENOUGH TO NEED MORE PEOPLE TO MAKE THEIR PRODUCTS, NOT TO STAND AROUND.
Those laid off get to spend less money, and go home extremely worried. The places they spent now have to make due with lesser and lesser cash flow to make their ends meet.
Those laid off now become a drag on the economy because we don't let people starve in this country.
So we inflict pain on small business, forcing things on them they don't need like health insurance for employees, and the owners find ways to need less employees to reduce their exposure to government intervention.
Remember the Dept of Energy? Who created it, what it was supposed to do and when it was created. And what did it do, and what does it cost?

Does anybody out there have any memory of the reason given for the establishment of the DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

... during the Carter Administration ? (Surprise ! Surprise !)

Anybody?
Anything?
No?
Didn't think so!

Bottom line ...
we've spent several hundred billion dollars
in support of an agency
... the reason for which not one person
who reads this can remember.
Ready ?
It was very simple ..
and at the time 'everybody'
thought it very appropriate...


The 'Department of Energy'
was instituted on 8-04-1977
TO LESSEN OUR DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL.

Hey, pretty efficient, huh ?

AND NOW IT'S 2009,

32 YEARS LATER ...
and the budget for "NECESSARY" department
is @ $ 24. 2 BILLION a year !!

it has 16,000 federal employees &
approx. 100,000 contract employees.
LOOK at the JOB it has done

Ah, yes, good old bureaucracy...

NOW -
we are going to turn the
Banking System,
Health Care &
Auto Industry
over to government?

May God Help Us -

'CAUSE the US CONRESS ain't gonna !

I am getting ready to short this market big time, I began to short it at the end of the H & S, got clipped a little bit but got out soon enough. I still believe that this market is a lot of hot air rising. I am ready go go short, and buying gold and silver...

Good luck
Capt. Brian
The Lost Navigator

Inflation vs. Deflation: Pick Your Poison

Good article I guess, digesting it may make my tummy hurt, but I suppose you are saying I get to choose what is going to happen. Drat friend, I am too busy running a lil sightseeing boat, can't you tell me wht is gonna happen, or at least, mate, what you 'think' is gonna happen? I listened to a lot of Seeking A contributors, including myself, and was convinced this market was rotten from the core, yet the market steams ahead, missing all the reefs everyone was talking about. I have been 'short' the market for 3 years now, (My being short the market is simply, NOT IN IT) so I am missing the Bull Market, of just the Bull? Can you rephrase this article, boil it down, then republish so a smelly ole sea cap'n can understand what to do?
Thanx
The Lost Navigator
Cap'n Brian

Real Estate ETFs: Good News, Bad News

good article someone did some work

As Equities Rise, the Dollar Will Fall

good article