capt Brian

Can China's Raging Bull Market Last?

good questions

China's Economy on the Rebound? Goldman Concurs

By the way, I am going to China in Sept., this year. I was there in 2002, and saw much. Counted about 24 billion or so construction cranes. Went From Bejing, to Xian to the Gobi desert, to Chendu to Tibet and Mt Everest, back to Chong Qing, down the Yangtze, to the 3 Gorges Dam, on to Wuhan, Shanghai etc. So, when I return, I will be able to see any major difference in internal activity.

I speak a little Mandarin, and have friends in China and will begin to querry them to see what is really happening, as we plan our trip there in September, '09

The Capt.

China's Economy on the Rebound? Goldman Concurs

Well, any recovery anywhere will be the best stimulus package there is. I however, am reticent at believing too many claims that overnight things are okay, and all the dragons have been slain.

I know dragons lay eggs, and in big numbers, and when one hatches, it quickly lays more eggs, and financial matters turned sour do not correct themselves overnight with a change in accounting rules, reporting methods, nor headlines from axe grinders and spin doctors.

Think of it this way: You spent too much money, and your cash reserves are at an all time low. You used your credit cards to the max, and now because the economy in general is a little weaker, the credit card companies, exercised their right [which you agreed to when you signed that you read the small print but actually did not read] to increase your interest rates to levels that would make a bookie or loan shark grin.

Your car is getting older, your home needs some repairs, (those things do not go away in a recession) in fact they have a way of increasing)) You can add to that a few more etc.'s. (right?)

Now, your boss comes in and tells you to hit the bricks (in so many words) NOW WHAT? Don't ask...

So, how are you going to get out of this morass of debt and despair?

Easy, print some money. Or go to the government and ask for a Temporary Assist Road Package... Or something, like the banks do or the big companies that have a great profile of losing money but that is okay, they are bigger and more important right?

But this comes with more debt, more % to be paid back and where is your headway showing up. NEVER NEVER NEVER will you get out of your trouble by borrowing more and paying back less all the while increasing your interest rate that you pay.

This is just simply not possible, so your lawyer, [taking your last brass farthing] tells you you can go bankrupt, and let the lenders go fish.

Companies, individuals, and even small countries can do that. If the American politicians do that, it is the end for the world, it will go into the dark ages and this time there will be mayhem which Stephen Spielburg has never imagined, nor could imagine.

So what is left, print money, inflate, and go with the consequences.

There is another way, which I could restore credit to everyone, get the machines back on track, but no one will listen, and no one would do it, so nevermind.

Too many agendas out there internationally to jump back to prosperity in a short time.

Capt Brian