joeevan

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

Thanks Bob....Your post is a minority position in this forum; however, this may not be the case in the general public. The U.S. has pulled out of a number of nasty snarls, and one of the key reasons centers on collective will. This time, some people have head for the hills, and I can understand their reasons too.
Cheers,
Joe


On Nov 24 04:18 PM bob adamson wrote:

> Wow! I’ve found where the survivalist wing of the perma-bear cult
> spends their spare time while not checking the catalogs for crossbow
> accessories.
>
> Admittedly the foregoing is too harsh and doesn’t show due regard
> for either the seriousness of the economic problems the US and global
> economies currently face or for the legitimate fear and frustration
> being felt. As a foreign observer of the US scene, however, I find
> it regrettable that I appear to have more faith than some US citizens
> in the capacity of the US and its people to work together to find
> a way forward through the current difficulties. This was done during
> the Depression and WW II and other past crises and there is no reason
> to think it can’t be done now. Other countries, think of the UK in
> WW II, have come through darker crises as well.
>
> This is not the time to run for the hills.

Chance of a Depression Now 5 Percent

Agreed. And your point makes me wonder why I keep searching Seeking Alpha for articles that present notions and support them with credible and verifiable data. Thanks, jessducky.


On Nov 17 07:34 PM jessducky wrote:

> Another brilliant Seeking Alpha article..and this one got to be an
> Editor's Pick. So his confidence that the govt knew everything that
> had to be done to avoid a depression led him to estimate the chance
> of a depression at 0% Now the gov't did all those things, and lo
> and behold, the govt got it all wrong and now he raises his probability
> to a whopping 5%, which is still almost no chance at all. Thats
> going out on a limb for you. This article expresses nothing but
> the author's own confused thinking and writing. Wouldnt get a D
> in college essay writing. I long for the old days when you had to
> demonstrate expertise and competence before they let you publish
> stuff that a lot of people would read.

Do We Goldbugs Finally Have Your Attention?

Thank you for expressing your position Robert. The gold rush has been amazing, but the wise investor will stay clear.


On Nov 13 08:27 AM Robert Jung wrote:

> I don't buy it. I recommend one look at the total return of gold
> over different time intervals. Yes, over the past 5 years the performance
> looks great, +20% annualized. But over the past 20 years it's averaged
> roughly 3.5%. Gold may continue to run short-term given the crazy
> governmental spending and Volcker's influence (re-inflation of assets),
> but I am of the opinion it's a "Bigger Fool" play.
>
> If you invest in gold you are committing one of the big three investment
> mistakes - "Track Record" investing.
>
> If you're an investor it's not for you. But it if you like gambling
> it's better odds than Vegas.

Thumbs Up for Agrium - Desjardins

Terra to buy 50 pct stake in Agrium plant on condition that Agrium's CF takeover goes through

11:30 am EDT, Monday October 19, 2009

SIOUX CITY, Iowa (AP) -- Agrium Inc. on Monday said it will sell part of its Carseland nitrogen facility to fertilizer maker Terra Industries Inc. in an effort to deal with regulatory concerns related to its proposed hostile takeover of CF Industries Holdings Inc.
(end excerpt)

Thumbs Up for Agrium - Desjardins

Terra to buy 50 pct stake in Agrium plant on condition that Agrium's CF takeover goes through

11:30 am EDT, Monday October 19, 2009

SIOUX CITY, Iowa (AP) -- Agrium Inc. on Monday said it will sell part of its Carseland nitrogen facility to fertilizer maker Terra Industries Inc. in an effort to deal with regulatory concerns related to its proposed hostile takeover of CF Industries Holdings Inc.

The sale is conditional on Agrium acquiring fertilizer company CF and Terra raising of $600 million of debt capital, the companies said.

Terra will pay $250 million in cash for certain U.S. assets and a 50 percent stake in the facility in Carseland, Alberta, which has an annual capacity of 590,000 short tons of gross ammonia and about 750,000 short tons of granular urea.

Agrium believes this agreement will address regulatory concerns under Canadian competition law related to its offer to acquire CF.

Terra said the purchase will provide greater exposure to cheaper natural gas, a more diverse geographic footprint in North America and ownership in a facility that produces upgraded ammonia-based products, which is part of the company's long-term strategy.

This deal is the latest move in a lengthy acquisition saga between Agrium, CF and Terra.

Since February, Agrium has pursued CF with sweetened offers and extended deadlines, but has only been dealt rejection. Agrium made its offer on the condition that CF drop its bid for Terra.

Deerfield, Ill.-based CF has resisted Agrium's takeover efforts, preferring instead to chase rival Terra Industries, which it has sought to acquire since January. Despite repeated rejections, in September, CF renewed its bid to buy Terra Industries, saying it had acquired 7 percent of Terra's shares and that it has offered to buy the rest of Terra in a deal worth nearly $4 billion. Terra continued to resist the marriage. In October, CF urged Terra shareholders to elect three of its own nominees for Terra's board, in an effort to boost chances for its all-stock takeover bid.

In Monday morning trading, shares of Agrium rose $3.33, or 6.2 percent, to $56.67. Earlier, shares hit a new 52-week high of $56.69. Terra shares fell $1, or 2.7 percent to $35.38. CF shares gained $3.31, or 3.6 percent, to $93.94. Earlier, the stock reached $94.09, a new high for the year.

Natural Gas: Worst Investment Ever?

Agreed...and this is a good time to buy the natural gas MLPs (e.g., AHD, APL).


On Oct 06 02:08 PM Joseph L. Shaefer wrote:

> A very tantalizing, if inaccurate, headline!
>
> Both the author and the commenter above have given a fine recitation
> of the recent HISTORY of natural gas prices. But what of the FUTURE?
>
>
> If I invested on March 3, 2009 based upon what the market "had done"
> recently, I'd have entered short sales. (Instead my decision on
> March 3rd is right out there in an article on SA, forever to either
> embarrass me or increase my net worth.)
>
> One cannot drive intelligently by looking only in the rear-view mirror.
> And one cannot invest intelligently based only upon yesterday's close.
>
>
> I believe those "overflowing" storage facilities will be emptied
> rapidly as winter approaches. And the squirrels, bears, birds, bees
> and other animals whose lives depend upon predicting the severity
> of the winter here outside our mountaintop aerie (7000 feet at Lake
> Tahoe) agree with me...
>
> “The present is never our goal: the past and present are our means:
> the future alone is our goal.” -- Blaise Pascal

Banking Sector: Worst Is Yet to Come

As a child, I recall hearing about Rosie the Riveter. In 1940, the U.S. prepared to enter the war with an unemployment rate of 14.6%. During the war, and under harsh conditions and unequal pay, women entered factories in order to make a contribution. They were realistic about the pain they saw in that time, but their optimism worked effectively against the odds.

On Oct 03 01:32 PM Mike from NYC wrote:

>
> Isn't it over-optimism that got us into this mess? I read an opinion
> piece, and several others subsequently, that stated that optimism
> is what got us here. Optimism by individuals and businesses that
> caused them to over-reach.
>
> I am optimistic but I am also realistic no matter how much pain I
> see. Right now realism is pessimism and cynicism.
>
> On Oct 03 09:15 AM Oldbobg wrote:
>
> A certain amount of optimism

Banking Sector: Worst Is Yet to Come

Thank you, Oldbobg for your wise response to the issue at hand. None of us has a crystal ball, but this is indeed a time when a strong sense of commitment and follow-through is necessary.
Best wishes...


On Oct 03 09:15 AM Oldbobg wrote:

> Everyone is entitled to thier opinions; however, I don't see any
> real "business sense" in the article. This is a war against financial
> disaster. As much as I don't agree in the governmental strategy,
> we are living under it and as a business community, do all that we
> can to be optimistic about recovering. A certain amount of optimism
> will spurr others to be optimistic, which will then show results.
> That is what has happened in the past. Let's as a nation of business,
> do the best we can do under the circumstances.

Five Reasons to Be Bullish

Is Rome gone? If not, has it changed for better or worse?


On Sep 29 12:33 PM User 344476 wrote:

> I'll take exception to the adage "What goes down must come up." I
> remember a similar, but different, adage "What goes up must come
> down." I read another article this morning on SA that referred to
> economic conditions at the end of the Roman empire that seem to be
> very similar to our current situation. The Roman empire went down
> and did not come back up.

Seven Points to Look For in October

It could be that extreme measures (e.g., terminating life insurance, selling stocks, buying gold and silver, etc.) taken now may seem prudent for a short term in the close future. However, these measures seem unwise for anyone who is planning and taking steps for the longer haul.

In any case, there is no denying the rhetorical power of extreme measures expressed with a voice of certainty. And this is particularly true during times like this when we all face notable challenges.

Determine N/S/E/W, plot a path, stay the course.

On Sep 24 01:02 AM Jake2 wrote:

> Mad Hatter, with all of his recommendations, does NOT sound as if
> he is about to leap out of a top floor window. What's up with the
> rest of you? I have never read such gloom and doom.

Why the Sudden Run Up in Natural Gas Prices?

Yes, stock man, there is good cause to believe that nat gas will move higher in the near term and in the more distant future. Industrial demand will increase as the economy improves, and demand for power generation will increase as plug-in cars come to market. Also, there is a strong push to reduce the use of coal-fired power plants, and natural gas is a viable alternative.

I'm adding to my positions in the MLPs (e.g., AHD, APL, XTEX, BBEP).


On Sep 15 08:33 AM stock man wrote:

> People are so CLUELESS on nat gas. It is WAY undervalued and will
> at some point catch back up to the price of oil ratio. People trying
> to short now deserve to lose their ass. UNG will see 20 by February
> as winter may be much cooler than people think. Nat gas is the
> best investment there is right now with an overvalued stock market.
> The smart investors are going to continue to get in and the dumb
> investors are short or selling. Nat gas should be at 6$ very soon.
> It's as simple as that.

Despite Dedicated ETFs, No Reliable Way to Play Natural Gas

Yes, arbormed...and I like the MLPs...e.g., AHD, APL, BBEP, XTEX...as well.


On Sep 14 10:52 AM arbormed wrote:

> Why not take the attractive yields offered by the likes of SJT, HGT,
> and DMLP and wait?

Current Market About to Lose Momentum - Gundlach

It's difficult to be objective when personal interests are at stake. So yes, ongoing due diligence is essential. Thanks for the post, Rational.


On Sep 11 11:32 AM Be Rational You Morons wrote:

> Mr. Gundlach is also the portfolio manager for TCW Total Return Bond
> Fund (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), so his opinions should
> be normalized by his marketing instincts/efforts.
>
> I mean what else would you expect from a fixed income investment
> manager?
>
> It's the same thing with PIMCO folks since March 09.
>
> In their defense, I think they are just capitalizing on general fear
> and uncertainity - and they know that this fear strategy works in
> their favor; so they are just doing what they are supposed to be
> doing.
>
> In the same note, we should be doing what we are supposed to be doing
> - our due diligence.

Three Indications Gold and Silver Will Continue Rising

Yes...the gold rally has been great, but hogs go to slaughter.


On Sep 08 12:03 PM NUCLEAR1929 wrote:

> gold rally is based on investors buying in fear, gld, slv, miners,
> options, futures but this is all paper buying and will be very dangerous
> to longs, they hold the paper assets same as holding microcap stocks,
> there is nothing in it

Another Natural Gas Bull Sticks His Neck Out

APL, AHD, XTEX


On Sep 03 05:16 PM mind_geek wrote:

> Names? If you give advice, you may want to mention the other 50%
> of the equation here!
>
> Short sellers will drive NG prices down to unheard of lows, then
> the greedy hedge fund traders will be piling in as they are giving
> "advice" in any media outlet possible (such as here) to get out of
> it. Do you really think Mr. Mad Hedge Fund Trader is really going
> to give you timely advice?...(good advice yes, timely...no way!)
>
>
> I would hope people have learned by now that this is common practice
> and the reason why they make the majority of the money in the market.
> Theres no way NG will go below $2..it will be close, but I would
> bet money thats the target price for hedgies to start buying.