joeevan's Comments

5 Reasons Gold Is Going to Rise: A Response to Nouriel Roubini

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 10:56:29 -0500

On 12/11, the WSJ published an article called Gold Trades on Luster and Bluster. Here is an excerpt:

Above all, phrases like peak gold should trip alarms. Investors buying into similar arguments at the height of the energy bull markets suffered big losses as recession hit and supplies turned out to be ample. And those commodities really get used up, rather than merely stored in the hope someone else pays more for them later.

"Another bull argument, recalling the days of the gold standard, observes that the money supply has expanded far faster than gold reserves. Yet even if proponents could agree on the metrics to be used—narrow or broad money? official reserves? global stocks?—the argument hasn't held over time. Gold was range-bound after the early 1980s bubble until the middle of this decade, even as U.S. money supply expanded, and has displayed little correlation with movements in broad money-supply measures. Lately, it has even disconnected from measures of observed and anticipated inflation.

The gold price's reaction to recent events like the unexpected drop in the U.S. unemployment rate and worries about Dubai and Greece is more telling. Gold has dropped at even the slightest foreshadowing of monetary-policy tightening or signs the financial system faces another bout of fragility. Its correlation with the S&P 500 has leapt from about zero in May to more than 40%. For all the talk of fundamentals and being a safe haven, gold is behaving more like the risk assets against which it is supposed to offer diversification."

Is Gold Bubble Popping?

Mon, 14 Dec 2009 10:24:00 -0500

Is a Gold Correction Imminent?

Fri, 04 Dec 2009 13:18:22 -0500

Yes, mloren...I'm looking at short gold ETFs.

On Dec 04 09:50 AM mloren wrote:

> I am onlly seeing froth with gold. on fast money they said the commodity
> goes up like steps in stairs and goes down like an out of control
> falling elevator -like a falling knife and with so many people in
> GLD, there is not much protection with stops. How do you get out
> of the position? It seems too crowded. I sold my gold, there are
> other less frothy items. Even Silver looks easier for an exit.

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 12:13:24 -0500

Thanks Bob....Your post is a minority position in this forum; however, this may not be the case in the general public. The U.S. has pulled out of a number of nasty snarls, and one of the key reasons centers on collective will. This time, some people have head for the hills, and I can understand their reasons too.
Cheers,
Joe

On Nov 24 04:18 PM bob adamson wrote:

> Wow! I’ve found where the survivalist wing of the perma-bear cult
> spends their spare time while not checking the catalogs for crossbow
> accessories.
>
> Admittedly the foregoing is too harsh and doesn’t show due regard
> for either the seriousness of the economic problems the US and global
> economies currently face or for the legitimate fear and frustration
> being felt. As a foreign observer of the US scene, however, I find
> it regrettable that I appear to have more faith than some US citizens
> in the capacity of the US and its people to work together to find
> a way forward through the current difficulties. This was done during
> the Depression and WW II and other past crises and there is no reason
> to think it can’t be done now. Other countries, think of the UK in
> WW II, have come through darker crises as well.
>
> This is not the time to run for the hills.

Chance of a Depression Now 5 Percent

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 12:26:12 -0500

Agreed. And your point makes me wonder why I keep searching Seeking Alpha for articles that present notions and support them with credible and verifiable data. Thanks, jessducky.

On Nov 17 07:34 PM jessducky wrote:

> Another brilliant Seeking Alpha article..and this one got to be an
> Editor's Pick. So his confidence that the govt knew everything that
> had to be done to avoid a depression led him to estimate the chance
> of a depression at 0% Now the gov't did all those things, and lo
> and behold, the govt got it all wrong and now he raises his probability
> to a whopping 5%, which is still almost no chance at all. Thats
> going out on a limb for you. This article expresses nothing but
> the author's own confused thinking and writing. Wouldnt get a D
> in college essay writing. I long for the old days when you had to
> demonstrate expertise and competence before they let you publish
> stuff that a lot of people would read.

Do We Goldbugs Finally Have Your Attention?

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:44:01 -0500

Thank you for expressing your position Robert. The gold rush has been amazing, but the wise investor will stay clear.

On Nov 13 08:27 AM Robert Jung wrote:

> I don't buy it. I recommend one look at the total return of gold
> over different time intervals. Yes, over the past 5 years the performance
> looks great, +20% annualized. But over the past 20 years it's averaged
> roughly 3.5%. Gold may continue to run short-term given the crazy
> governmental spending and Volcker's influence (re-inflation of assets),
> but I am of the opinion it's a "Bigger Fool" play.
>
> If you invest in gold you are committing one of the big three investment
> mistakes - "Track Record" investing.
>
> If you're an investor it's not for you. But it if you like gambling
> it's better odds than Vegas.

Thumbs Up for Agrium - Desjardins

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:36:03 -0400

Thumbs Up for Agrium - Desjardins

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:35:35 -0400

Terra to buy 50 pct stake in Agrium plant on condition that Agrium's CF takeover goes through

11:30 am EDT, Monday October 19, 2009

SIOUX CITY, Iowa (AP) -- Agrium Inc. on Monday said it will sell part of its Carseland nitrogen facility to fertilizer maker Terra Industries Inc. in an effort to deal with regulatory concerns related to its proposed hostile takeover of CF Industries Holdings Inc.

The sale is conditional on Agrium acquiring fertilizer company CF and Terra raising of $600 million of debt capital, the companies said.

Terra will pay $250 million in cash for certain U.S. assets and a 50 percent stake in the facility in Carseland, Alberta, which has an annual capacity of 590,000 short tons of gross ammonia and about 750,000 short tons of granular urea.

Agrium believes this agreement will address regulatory concerns under Canadian competition law related to its offer to acquire CF.

Terra said the purchase will provide greater exposure to cheaper natural gas, a more diverse geographic footprint in North America and ownership in a facility that produces upgraded ammonia-based products, which is part of the company's long-term strategy.

This deal is the latest move in a lengthy acquisition saga between Agrium, CF and Terra.

Since February, Agrium has pursued CF with sweetened offers and extended deadlines, but has only been dealt rejection. Agrium made its offer on the condition that CF drop its bid for Terra.

Deerfield, Ill.-based CF has resisted Agrium's takeover efforts, preferring instead to chase rival Terra Industries, which it has sought to acquire since January. Despite repeated rejections, in September, CF renewed its bid to buy Terra Industries, saying it had acquired 7 percent of Terra's shares and that it has offered to buy the rest of Terra in a deal worth nearly $4 billion. Terra continued to resist the marriage. In October, CF urged Terra shareholders to elect three of its own nominees for Terra's board, in an effort to boost chances for its all-stock takeover bid.

In Monday morning trading, shares of Agrium rose $3.33, or 6.2 percent, to $56.67. Earlier, shares hit a new 52-week high of $56.69. Terra shares fell $1, or 2.7 percent to $35.38. CF shares gained $3.31, or 3.6 percent, to $93.94. Earlier, the stock reached $94.09, a new high for the year.

Natural Gas: Worst Investment Ever?

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 12:15:28 -0400

Agreed...and this is a good time to buy the natural gas MLPs (e.g., AHD, APL).

On Oct 06 02:08 PM Joseph L. Shaefer wrote:

> A very tantalizing, if inaccurate, headline!
>
> Both the author and the commenter above have given a fine recitation
> of the recent HISTORY of natural gas prices. But what of the FUTURE?
>
>
> If I invested on March 3, 2009 based upon what the market "had done"
> recently, I'd have entered short sales. (Instead my decision on
> March 3rd is right out there in an article on SA, forever to either
> embarrass me or increase my net worth.)
>
> One cannot drive intelligently by looking only in the rear-view mirror.
> And one cannot invest intelligently based only upon yesterday's close.
>
>
> I believe those "overflowing" storage facilities will be emptied
> rapidly as winter approaches. And the squirrels, bears, birds, bees
> and other animals whose lives depend upon predicting the severity
> of the winter here outside our mountaintop aerie (7000 feet at Lake
> Tahoe) agree with me...
>
> “The present is never our goal: the past and present are our means:
> the future alone is our goal.” -- Blaise Pascal

Banking Sector: Worst Is Yet to Come

Sat, 03 Oct 2009 15:26:13 -0400

As a child, I recall hearing about Rosie the Riveter. In 1940, the U.S. prepared to enter the war with an unemployment rate of 14.6%. During the war, and under harsh conditions and unequal pay, women entered factories in order to make a contribution. They were realistic about the pain they saw in that time, but their optimism worked effectively against the odds.

On Oct 03 01:32 PM Mike from NYC wrote:

>
> Isn't it over-optimism that got us into this mess? I read an opinion
> piece, and several others subsequently, that stated that optimism
> is what got us here. Optimism by individuals and businesses that
> caused them to over-reach.
>
> I am optimistic but I am also realistic no matter how much pain I
> see. Right now realism is pessimism and cynicism.
>
> On Oct 03 09:15 AM Oldbobg wrote:
>
> A certain amount of optimism

Banking Sector: Worst Is Yet to Come

Sat, 03 Oct 2009 15:03:12 -0400

Thank you, Oldbobg for your wise response to the issue at hand. None of us has a crystal ball, but this is indeed a time when a strong sense of commitment and follow-through is necessary.
Best wishes...

On Oct 03 09:15 AM Oldbobg wrote:

> Everyone is entitled to thier opinions; however, I don't see any
> real "business sense" in the article. This is a war against financial
> disaster. As much as I don't agree in the governmental strategy,
> we are living under it and as a business community, do all that we
> can to be optimistic about recovering. A certain amount of optimism
> will spurr others to be optimistic, which will then show results.
> That is what has happened in the past. Let's as a nation of business,
> do the best we can do under the circumstances.

Five Reasons to Be Bullish

Tue, 29 Sep 2009 21:59:17 -0400

Is Rome gone? If not, has it changed for better or worse?

On Sep 29 12:33 PM User 344476 wrote:

> I'll take exception to the adage "What goes down must come up." I
> remember a similar, but different, adage "What goes up must come
> down." I read another article this morning on SA that referred to
> economic conditions at the end of the Roman empire that seem to be
> very similar to our current situation. The Roman empire went down
> and did not come back up.

Seven Points to Look For in October

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 12:26:22 -0400

It could be that extreme measures (e.g., terminating life insurance, selling stocks, buying gold and silver, etc.) taken now may seem prudent for a short term in the close future. However, these measures seem unwise for anyone who is planning and taking steps for the longer haul.

In any case, there is no denying the rhetorical power of extreme measures expressed with a voice of certainty. And this is particularly true during times like this when we all face notable challenges.

Determine N/S/E/W, plot a path, stay the course.

On Sep 24 01:02 AM Jake2 wrote:

> Mad Hatter, with all of his recommendations, does NOT sound as if
> he is about to leap out of a top floor window. What's up with the
> rest of you? I have never read such gloom and doom.

Why the Sudden Run Up in Natural Gas Prices?

Wed, 16 Sep 2009 12:37:03 -0400

Yes, stock man, there is good cause to believe that nat gas will move higher in the near term and in the more distant future. Industrial demand will increase as the economy improves, and demand for power generation will increase as plug-in cars come to market. Also, there is a strong push to reduce the use of coal-fired power plants, and natural gas is a viable alternative.

I'm adding to my positions in the MLPs (e.g., AHD, APL, XTEX, BBEP).

On Sep 15 08:33 AM stock man wrote:

> People are so CLUELESS on nat gas. It is WAY undervalued and will
> at some point catch back up to the price of oil ratio. People trying
> to short now deserve to lose their ass. UNG will see 20 by February
> as winter may be much cooler than people think. Nat gas is the
> best investment there is right now with an overvalued stock market.
> The smart investors are going to continue to get in and the dumb
> investors are short or selling. Nat gas should be at 6$ very soon.
> It's as simple as that.

Despite Dedicated ETFs, No Reliable Way to Play Natural Gas

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 11:42:42 -0400

Yes, arbormed...and I like the MLPs...e.g., AHD, APL, BBEP, XTEX...as well.

On Sep 14 10:52 AM arbormed wrote:

> Why not take the attractive yields offered by the likes of SJT, HGT,
> and DMLP and wait?

Current Market About to Lose Momentum - Gundlach

Sat, 12 Sep 2009 14:47:58 -0400

It's difficult to be objective when personal interests are at stake. So yes, ongoing due diligence is essential. Thanks for the post, Rational.

On Sep 11 11:32 AM Be Rational You Morons wrote:

> Mr. Gundlach is also the portfolio manager for TCW Total Return Bond
> Fund (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), so his opinions should
> be normalized by his marketing instincts/efforts.
>
> I mean what else would you expect from a fixed income investment
> manager?
>
> It's the same thing with PIMCO folks since March 09.
>
> In their defense, I think they are just capitalizing on general fear
> and uncertainity - and they know that this fear strategy works in
> their favor; so they are just doing what they are supposed to be
> doing.
>
> In the same note, we should be doing what we are supposed to be doing
> - our due diligence.

Three Indications Gold and Silver Will Continue Rising

Wed, 09 Sep 2009 11:33:24 -0400

Yes...the gold rally has been great, but hogs go to slaughter.

On Sep 08 12:03 PM NUCLEAR1929 wrote:

> gold rally is based on investors buying in fear, gld, slv, miners,
> options, futures but this is all paper buying and will be very dangerous
> to longs, they hold the paper assets same as holding microcap stocks,
> there is nothing in it

Another Natural Gas Bull Sticks His Neck Out

Fri, 04 Sep 2009 14:00:36 -0400

APL, AHD, XTEX

On Sep 03 05:16 PM mind_geek wrote:

> Names? If you give advice, you may want to mention the other 50%
> of the equation here!
>
> Short sellers will drive NG prices down to unheard of lows, then
> the greedy hedge fund traders will be piling in as they are giving
> "advice" in any media outlet possible (such as here) to get out of
> it. Do you really think Mr. Mad Hedge Fund Trader is really going
> to give you timely advice?...(good advice yes, timely...no way!)
>
>
> I would hope people have learned by now that this is common practice
> and the reason why they make the majority of the money in the market.
> Theres no way NG will go below $2..it will be close, but I would
> bet money thats the target price for hedgies to start buying.

Is a Crash Impending?

Tue, 01 Sep 2009 12:43:33 -0400

Finally, a post that isn't rooted in "used dog food." Thanks, DonFurio.

On Aug 31 03:03 PM DonFurio wrote:

> This is the same idiot author who wrote an article in May "The Case
> for Getting Short". Good thing I've been long and will continue
> to buy. Unless you are a very short term trader, listening to these
> idiots will usually cause u to miss out on a lot of gains. You should
> do what've said for a long time now, buy every month, and you can
> always buy more if you feel shares are depressed, but if you don't
> have that discipline you'll probably miss out on a lot of gains.
>
>
> I think a bigger underlying problem is that many of the SA authors
> and other bloggers want/wanted the system to fail, so they could
> I told you so. However, this strategy will almost never make you
> any money because it's too extreme. Once the S&P gets back to
> 1300-1400 in a few years, will it still make sense to be stocks?
> It’s too early to tell, but I’ll make that decision when we get there.

Celebrating the 'Recovery': I'm Disgusted

Tue, 25 Aug 2009 15:09:24 -0400

The dissemination of writings on the current economic debacle is extremely varied. And for me, this is a particularly difficult time to cull the various articles and find a way to move forward in some-- forgive the expression-- positive way.

I can grasp that some actions taken by those involved in the economic process have been significantly flawed, and that some actions taken by those involved in mitigating the current crisis also have questionable merit. However, I don't know how useful it would be for me to take actions based on writings that suggest and sometimes insist on broad and sinister dealings in places like the (current) White House and Federal Reserve.

On a small scale, I bought shares of discounted stocks throughout the recession. And after saving money for the past seven years, I'm currently negotiating the purchase of a small home that I will rent out for the next several years. These actions don't exactly sit well with me, but I don't know how anyone would benefit if I were to take steps in another less trusting and supportive mode.

Avoid (Natural) Gassy Stocks

Tue, 26 May 2009 11:17:15 -0400

Yes, LINE is one of the best.

On May 25 09:21 PM harammph wrote:

> The recent spike in Nat Gas means that there is a lot of pent up
> demand for this commodity.
>
> When it starts to move up in ernest it won't be by small increments.
>
>
> Find a buy point in your favorite stocks and wait.
>
> Look for High dividend plays like LINE which is about 60% nat gas.

Berkshire Makes Modest Q1 Changes in Holdings; Portfolio Up Sharply in First Half of Q2

Sun, 17 May 2009 13:13:02 -0400

Hello, dividendgrowthinvestor... thank you for your reply to Mr. Nagarajan's post. You mention that you have built a "dividend machine." In my brokerage accounts, I've been focused on dividend-yielding stocks for the past twenty years. I would appreciate your thoughts on some of the key components of your machine. And yes, brka/b seems like a good value here.
Thank you,
joeevan

On May 17 11:40 AM dividendgrowthinvestor wrote:

> I added to my BRK the dy he was on CNBC in March in the 2300s. Buffett
> is simply the GREATEST INVESTOR the only man to make over 100 billion
> investing for he and his clients.He did it without options and high
> salaries and although i dont agree with him politically he is BY
> far the greatest investor of all time. His deal with the stock markets
> where he got paid billions upfront will go down in history as the
> greatest investment ever when the invested float is factored in.
> I am a dividend guy and achieved financial independence through buildinga
> dividend machine but this stock even in the 2800s is very cheap

>
> I get a lot of negatives on here for saying this but honestly who
> are any of us for criticizing his investments in deritives and financials.
> WE DONT Understand them anywhere close to the way he does. If someone
> was smarter than he than they would be richer

Grain Prices: Back to the Futures

Tue, 12 May 2009 13:28:24 -0400

I'm adding to my AGU shares.

Shipping Industry Has Too Many Ships Being Built

Fri, 24 Apr 2009 12:24:35 -0400

US, China to sign billions in business deals Monday
Fri Apr 24, 2009 10:56am EDT

WASHINGTON, April 24 (Reuters) - U.S. and Chinese companies will sign more than 30 contracts on Monday worth billions of dollars to American businesses, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said on Friday.

Companies attending the signing ceremony include FedEx Corp (FDX.N), Dell Inc (DELL.O), Lenovo (0992.HK), and China Telecom (0728.HK), the business group said.

The signing ceremony will take place following an annual meeting of the U.S. China Trade and Investment Cooperation Forum, which is being co-hosted by the U.S. Chamber and the China Chamber of Commerce for Import Export of Machinery and Electronic Products.

Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming and Acting U.S. Undersecretary for International Trade Michelle O'Neill are scheduled to speak at the event, as well as senior executives from the four companies listed above.

U.S. and Chinese companies often sign contracts when Chinese officials visit the United States, many times for deals that have been long in the works or previously announced.

The forum and signing ceremony underscore the importance of commercial relations between the two countries, the U.S. Chamber said. (Editing by Derek Caney and Matthew Lewis)

Shipping Industry Has Too Many Ships Being Built

Fri, 24 Apr 2009 12:07:15 -0400

January 15, 2009
Hellenic Shipping News

Tonnage supply to be limited further by scrap deals

Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News -- With the Baltic Dry Index posting a sustainable rise from the first days of the New Year, a restrained optimism has returned in the market, with the influence of various scrap deals not appreciated as much. Owners have returned to scrap yards by the dozens, eager to sell their older dry bulk carriers, now posting losses as opposed to hefty earnings up to six months ago. According to figures compiled by George Moundreas & Co. the average weekly volumes of dry bulk tonnage that left the market for scrap was increased at 600,000 dwt, versus 400,000-500,00 during the previous weeks. Further to that, the broker reports that negotiations are currently taking place for the scrapping of at least 157 vessels with a capacity of a stunning 5.5 million dwt. This could mean that by the end of 2009 a “healthy” 10 percent of the global dry bulk tonnage may have exited the market. At the same time, what’s rather encouraging is that scrap prices remain at a healthy $250-275/ldt.

On Apr 24 08:45 AM Obamitall wrote:

> I Agree with your reply. there were a good number of build cancellations
> starting last October as revenuse dried up and credit tightened.
>
>
> On Apr 23 12:50 PM Oil Bull_1974 wrote:

Shipping Industry Has Too Many Ships Being Built

Fri, 24 Apr 2009 11:59:26 -0400

From a press release in February 2009:
LEADING CHINESE shipyard Yangzijiang has posted stellar FY08 results – a near doubling in both top and bottom line...

In the bulk carrier sector where supply glut is most severe, Cosco Singapore has announced 4 cancellations of orders to build new bulk carriers while JES International has announced 6.
Cosco had announced this week its FY08 earnings had fallen 10% yoy. Building of new dry bulk carriers and multi-purpose carriers contributed 18.7% of Yangzijiang FY08 revenues. New container ships contributed 81.3%.

Below is a summary of issues addressed by Yangzijiang’s executive chairman, Mr Ren Yuanlin, and its chief financial officer, Ms Liu Hua, at the briefing.

Q: What is the situation for cancellations in the industry?
A: Its frequency is rather high. These occur when deposit was low or when a yard cannot deliver.
(end excerpts)

On Apr 24 08:45 AM Obamitall wrote:

> I Agree with your reply. there were a good number of build cancellations
> starting last October as revenuse dried up and credit tightened.
>
>
> On Apr 23 12:50 PM Oil Bull_1974 wrote:

Perfect Storm: Why Too Many Dry Bulk Carriers Are Being Built

Wed, 22 Apr 2009 13:56:36 -0400

Goldman Sachs Raises China Economic Growth Forecasts (Update1)
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Shamim Adam and Kevin Hamlin

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economy will expand faster than previously forecast this year and next as the government’s 4 trillion-yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package spurs domestic demand and boosts investment, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

The world’s third-largest economy will expand 8.3 percent in 2009, from an earlier estimate of 6 percent, Hong Kong-based economists Helen Qiao and Yu Song wrote in a note published today. CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets also increased its estimate for growth this year to 7 percent from 5.5 percent earlier, according to an e-mailed note.

China’s fiscal stimulus has already driven investment back to pre-crisis levels and lending surged more than six times in March. China’s economy will continue to recover this quarter and growth will reach the government’s 8 percent target in 2009, central bank deputy governor Yi Gang said today.

“Policy makers in China have been pushing the envelope on policy easing in only one direction -- for more and more,” the Goldman Sachs economists said. “In the next three quarters, we expect domestic demand growth to further strengthen, bolstered by loose financial conditions and continued policy stimulus.”

Growth will quicken to 10.9 percent next year, compared with a previous prediction for a 9 percent expansion, they said.

Urban fixed-asset investment surged by almost a third in March and industrial-output growth accelerated. First-quarter gross domestic product grew 6.1 percent, the slowest pace in almost a decade, as exports slumped.

“This is a dramatic rebound,” said CLSA’s research note. “China has the resources needed to keep GDP growth in volume terms high for 2009 and 2010.” It estimates growth will reach 8 percent in 2010.

(end excerpt)

Global Shipping Industry Sees Long Duration Economic Recession

Wed, 22 Apr 2009 13:53:35 -0400

Goldman Sachs Raises China Economic Growth Forecasts
By Shamim Adam and Kevin Hamlin

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economy will expand faster than previously forecast this year and next as the government’s 4 trillion-yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package spurs domestic demand and boosts investment, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

The world’s third-largest economy will expand 8.3 percent in 2009, from an earlier estimate of 6 percent, Hong Kong-based economists Helen Qiao and Yu Song wrote in a note published today. CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets also increased its estimate for growth this year to 7 percent from 5.5 percent earlier, according to an e-mailed note.

China’s fiscal stimulus has already driven investment back to pre-crisis levels and lending surged more than six times in March. China’s economy will continue to recover this quarter and growth will reach the government’s 8 percent target in 2009, central bank deputy governor Yi Gang said today.

“Policy makers in China have been pushing the envelope on policy easing in only one direction -- for more and more,” the Goldman Sachs economists said. “In the next three quarters, we expect domestic demand growth to further strengthen, bolstered by loose financial conditions and continued policy stimulus.”

Growth will quicken to 10.9 percent next year, compared with a previous prediction for a 9 percent expansion, they said.

Urban fixed-asset investment surged by almost a third in March and industrial-output growth accelerated. First-quarter gross domestic product grew 6.1 percent, the slowest pace in almost a decade, as exports slumped.

“This is a dramatic rebound,” said CLSA’s research note. “China has the resources needed to keep GDP growth in volume terms high for 2009 and 2010.” It estimates growth will reach 8 percent in 2010.

(end excerpt)

Global Shipping Industry Sees Long Duration Economic Recession

Wed, 22 Apr 2009 10:20:37 -0400

Hello, Steven...and thank you for your generous, detailed posts. You mention "special product carriers." Could you give some examples of companies in this category. Thank you.

On Apr 21 10:42 AM Steven Hansen wrote:

> hillsfar -
> container ships - this sector has overcapacity but not to the degree
> of dry bulk. the industry sees a new trend back down to ships in
> the 8000 teu range. 13000 teu ships only for the trans-pacific and
> asia / europe routes with a reduction in the amount of ships running
> these routes due to lower demand. as far a my memory serves, the
> new capacity coming on line shortly is in this 8000 teu post panamax
> size.
>
> tankers - this sector appears to be in better shape as there has
> been many vloc to vlcc conversions. additionally others have been
> converted into floating production storage offloading units, or just
> scrapped. this sector has relatively much fewer new builds.
>
> special product carriers - the delegates believed this sector would
> be one of the first to recover. there was little discussion in this
> area, and no discussion on capacity or new builds.

James West - The Only Defense Against Inflation Is Gold Equities

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 12:49:25 -0500

Is buying gold now like buying real estate in 2006?