joeevan

Current Market About to Lose Momentum - Gundlach

It's difficult to be objective when personal interests are at stake. So yes, ongoing due diligence is essential. Thanks for the post, Rational.


On Sep 11 11:32 AM Be Rational You Morons wrote:

> Mr. Gundlach is also the portfolio manager for TCW Total Return Bond
> Fund (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), so his opinions should
> be normalized by his marketing instincts/efforts.
>
> I mean what else would you expect from a fixed income investment
> manager?
>
> It's the same thing with PIMCO folks since March 09.
>
> In their defense, I think they are just capitalizing on general fear
> and uncertainity - and they know that this fear strategy works in
> their favor; so they are just doing what they are supposed to be
> doing.
>
> In the same note, we should be doing what we are supposed to be doing
> - our due diligence.

Three Indications Gold and Silver Will Continue Rising

Yes...the gold rally has been great, but hogs go to slaughter.


On Sep 08 12:03 PM NUCLEAR1929 wrote:

> gold rally is based on investors buying in fear, gld, slv, miners,
> options, futures but this is all paper buying and will be very dangerous
> to longs, they hold the paper assets same as holding microcap stocks,
> there is nothing in it

Another Natural Gas Bull Sticks His Neck Out

APL, AHD, XTEX


On Sep 03 05:16 PM mind_geek wrote:

> Names? If you give advice, you may want to mention the other 50%
> of the equation here!
>
> Short sellers will drive NG prices down to unheard of lows, then
> the greedy hedge fund traders will be piling in as they are giving
> "advice" in any media outlet possible (such as here) to get out of
> it. Do you really think Mr. Mad Hedge Fund Trader is really going
> to give you timely advice?...(good advice yes, timely...no way!)
>
>
> I would hope people have learned by now that this is common practice
> and the reason why they make the majority of the money in the market.
> Theres no way NG will go below $2..it will be close, but I would
> bet money thats the target price for hedgies to start buying.

Is a Crash Impending?

Finally, a post that isn't rooted in "used dog food." Thanks, DonFurio.


On Aug 31 03:03 PM DonFurio wrote:

> This is the same idiot author who wrote an article in May "The Case
> for Getting Short". Good thing I've been long and will continue
> to buy. Unless you are a very short term trader, listening to these
> idiots will usually cause u to miss out on a lot of gains. You should
> do what've said for a long time now, buy every month, and you can
> always buy more if you feel shares are depressed, but if you don't
> have that discipline you'll probably miss out on a lot of gains.
>
>
> I think a bigger underlying problem is that many of the SA authors
> and other bloggers want/wanted the system to fail, so they could
> I told you so. However, this strategy will almost never make you
> any money because it's too extreme. Once the S&P gets back to
> 1300-1400 in a few years, will it still make sense to be stocks?
> It’s too early to tell, but I’ll make that decision when we get there.

Celebrating the 'Recovery': I'm Disgusted

The dissemination of writings on the current economic debacle is extremely varied. And for me, this is a particularly difficult time to cull the various articles and find a way to move forward in some-- forgive the expression-- positive way.

I can grasp that some actions taken by those involved in the economic process have been significantly flawed, and that some actions taken by those involved in mitigating the current crisis also have questionable merit. However, I don't know how useful it would be for me to take actions based on writings that suggest and sometimes insist on broad and sinister dealings in places like the (current) White House and Federal Reserve.

On a small scale, I bought shares of discounted stocks throughout the recession. And after saving money for the past seven years, I'm currently negotiating the purchase of a small home that I will rent out for the next several years. These actions don't exactly sit well with me, but I don't know how anyone would benefit if I were to take steps in another less trusting and supportive mode.

Avoid (Natural) Gassy Stocks

Yes, LINE is one of the best.


On May 25 09:21 PM harammph wrote:

> The recent spike in Nat Gas means that there is a lot of pent up
> demand for this commodity.
>
> When it starts to move up in ernest it won't be by small increments.
>
>
> Find a buy point in your favorite stocks and wait.
>
> Look for High dividend plays like LINE which is about 60% nat gas.

Berkshire Makes Modest Q1 Changes in Holdings; Portfolio Up Sharply in First Half of Q2

Hello, dividendgrowthinvestor... thank you for your reply to Mr. Nagarajan's post. You mention that you have built a "dividend machine." In my brokerage accounts, I've been focused on dividend-yielding stocks for the past twenty years. I would appreciate your thoughts on some of the key components of your machine. And yes, brka/b seems like a good value here.
Thank you,
joeevan


On May 17 11:40 AM dividendgrowthinvestor wrote:

> I added to my BRK the dy he was on CNBC in March in the 2300s. Buffett
> is simply the GREATEST INVESTOR the only man to make over 100 billion
> investing for he and his clients.He did it without options and high
> salaries and although i dont agree with him politically he is BY
> far the greatest investor of all time. His deal with the stock markets
> where he got paid billions upfront will go down in history as the
> greatest investment ever when the invested float is factored in.
> I am a dividend guy and achieved financial independence through buildinga
> dividend machine but this stock even in the 2800s is very cheap<br/>
>
> I get a lot of negatives on here for saying this but honestly who
> are any of us for criticizing his investments in deritives and financials.
> WE DONT Understand them anywhere close to the way he does. If someone
> was smarter than he than they would be richer

Grain Prices: Back to the Futures

I'm adding to my AGU shares.

Shipping Industry Has Too Many Ships Being Built

US, China to sign billions in business deals Monday
Fri Apr 24, 2009 10:56am EDT

WASHINGTON, April 24 (Reuters) - U.S. and Chinese companies will sign more than 30 contracts on Monday worth billions of dollars to American businesses, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said on Friday.

Companies attending the signing ceremony include FedEx Corp (FDX.N), Dell Inc (DELL.O), Lenovo (0992.HK), and China Telecom (0728.HK), the business group said.

The signing ceremony will take place following an annual meeting of the U.S. China Trade and Investment Cooperation Forum, which is being co-hosted by the U.S. Chamber and the China Chamber of Commerce for Import Export of Machinery and Electronic Products.

Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming and Acting U.S. Undersecretary for International Trade Michelle O'Neill are scheduled to speak at the event, as well as senior executives from the four companies listed above.

U.S. and Chinese companies often sign contracts when Chinese officials visit the United States, many times for deals that have been long in the works or previously announced.

The forum and signing ceremony underscore the importance of commercial relations between the two countries, the U.S. Chamber said. (Editing by Derek Caney and Matthew Lewis)

Shipping Industry Has Too Many Ships Being Built

January 15, 2009
Hellenic Shipping News

Tonnage supply to be limited further by scrap deals

Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News -- With the Baltic Dry Index posting a sustainable rise from the first days of the New Year, a restrained optimism has returned in the market, with the influence of various scrap deals not appreciated as much. Owners have returned to scrap yards by the dozens, eager to sell their older dry bulk carriers, now posting losses as opposed to hefty earnings up to six months ago. According to figures compiled by George Moundreas & Co. the average weekly volumes of dry bulk tonnage that left the market for scrap was increased at 600,000 dwt, versus 400,000-500,00 during the previous weeks. Further to that, the broker reports that negotiations are currently taking place for the scrapping of at least 157 vessels with a capacity of a stunning 5.5 million dwt. This could mean that by the end of 2009 a “healthy” 10 percent of the global dry bulk tonnage may have exited the market. At the same time, what’s rather encouraging is that scrap prices remain at a healthy $250-275/ldt.


On Apr 24 08:45 AM Obamitall wrote:

> I Agree with your reply. there were a good number of build cancellations
> starting last October as revenuse dried up and credit tightened.
>
>
> On Apr 23 12:50 PM Oil Bull_1974 wrote:

Shipping Industry Has Too Many Ships Being Built

From a press release in February 2009:
LEADING CHINESE shipyard Yangzijiang has posted stellar FY08 results – a near doubling in both top and bottom line...

In the bulk carrier sector where supply glut is most severe, Cosco Singapore has announced 4 cancellations of orders to build new bulk carriers while JES International has announced 6.
Cosco had announced this week its FY08 earnings had fallen 10% yoy. Building of new dry bulk carriers and multi-purpose carriers contributed 18.7% of Yangzijiang FY08 revenues. New container ships contributed 81.3%.

Below is a summary of issues addressed by Yangzijiang’s executive chairman, Mr Ren Yuanlin, and its chief financial officer, Ms Liu Hua, at the briefing.

Q: What is the situation for cancellations in the industry?
A: Its frequency is rather high. These occur when deposit was low or when a yard cannot deliver.
(end excerpts)


On Apr 24 08:45 AM Obamitall wrote:

> I Agree with your reply. there were a good number of build cancellations
> starting last October as revenuse dried up and credit tightened.
>
>
> On Apr 23 12:50 PM Oil Bull_1974 wrote:

Perfect Storm: Why Too Many Dry Bulk Carriers Are Being Built

Goldman Sachs Raises China Economic Growth Forecasts (Update1)
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Shamim Adam and Kevin Hamlin

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economy will expand faster than previously forecast this year and next as the government’s 4 trillion-yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package spurs domestic demand and boosts investment, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

The world’s third-largest economy will expand 8.3 percent in 2009, from an earlier estimate of 6 percent, Hong Kong-based economists Helen Qiao and Yu Song wrote in a note published today. CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets also increased its estimate for growth this year to 7 percent from 5.5 percent earlier, according to an e-mailed note.

China’s fiscal stimulus has already driven investment back to pre-crisis levels and lending surged more than six times in March. China’s economy will continue to recover this quarter and growth will reach the government’s 8 percent target in 2009, central bank deputy governor Yi Gang said today.

“Policy makers in China have been pushing the envelope on policy easing in only one direction -- for more and more,” the Goldman Sachs economists said. “In the next three quarters, we expect domestic demand growth to further strengthen, bolstered by loose financial conditions and continued policy stimulus.”

Growth will quicken to 10.9 percent next year, compared with a previous prediction for a 9 percent expansion, they said.

Urban fixed-asset investment surged by almost a third in March and industrial-output growth accelerated. First-quarter gross domestic product grew 6.1 percent, the slowest pace in almost a decade, as exports slumped.

“This is a dramatic rebound,” said CLSA’s research note. “China has the resources needed to keep GDP growth in volume terms high for 2009 and 2010.” It estimates growth will reach 8 percent in 2010.

(end excerpt)

Global Shipping Industry Sees Long Duration Economic Recession

Goldman Sachs Raises China Economic Growth Forecasts
By Shamim Adam and Kevin Hamlin

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economy will expand faster than previously forecast this year and next as the government’s 4 trillion-yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package spurs domestic demand and boosts investment, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

The world’s third-largest economy will expand 8.3 percent in 2009, from an earlier estimate of 6 percent, Hong Kong-based economists Helen Qiao and Yu Song wrote in a note published today. CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets also increased its estimate for growth this year to 7 percent from 5.5 percent earlier, according to an e-mailed note.

China’s fiscal stimulus has already driven investment back to pre-crisis levels and lending surged more than six times in March. China’s economy will continue to recover this quarter and growth will reach the government’s 8 percent target in 2009, central bank deputy governor Yi Gang said today.

“Policy makers in China have been pushing the envelope on policy easing in only one direction -- for more and more,” the Goldman Sachs economists said. “In the next three quarters, we expect domestic demand growth to further strengthen, bolstered by loose financial conditions and continued policy stimulus.”

Growth will quicken to 10.9 percent next year, compared with a previous prediction for a 9 percent expansion, they said.

Urban fixed-asset investment surged by almost a third in March and industrial-output growth accelerated. First-quarter gross domestic product grew 6.1 percent, the slowest pace in almost a decade, as exports slumped.

“This is a dramatic rebound,” said CLSA’s research note. “China has the resources needed to keep GDP growth in volume terms high for 2009 and 2010.” It estimates growth will reach 8 percent in 2010.

(end excerpt)

Global Shipping Industry Sees Long Duration Economic Recession

Hello, Steven...and thank you for your generous, detailed posts. You mention "special product carriers." Could you give some examples of companies in this category. Thank you.


On Apr 21 10:42 AM Steven Hansen wrote:

> hillsfar -
> container ships - this sector has overcapacity but not to the degree
> of dry bulk. the industry sees a new trend back down to ships in
> the 8000 teu range. 13000 teu ships only for the trans-pacific and
> asia / europe routes with a reduction in the amount of ships running
> these routes due to lower demand. as far a my memory serves, the
> new capacity coming on line shortly is in this 8000 teu post panamax
> size.
>
> tankers - this sector appears to be in better shape as there has
> been many vloc to vlcc conversions. additionally others have been
> converted into floating production storage offloading units, or just
> scrapped. this sector has relatively much fewer new builds.
>
> special product carriers - the delegates believed this sector would
> be one of the first to recover. there was little discussion in this
> area, and no discussion on capacity or new builds.

James West - The Only Defense Against Inflation Is Gold Equities

Is buying gold now like buying real estate in 2006?