Stalingrad

Currency Market: Where Are the Value Points?

The comparison between 1907-08 and 2007-08 is illuminating. However, the 1907-08 drop was a continuation from Jan 1906. From peak to bottom it was 23 months. Presently we are only 12 months from the peak of October 2007. Dare we call the bottom so soon? Hopefully 7245 will be the bottom whenever that happens. If the new US president screws up and fails to deliver a new New Deal and the leaders of East Asia are ineffective in helping themselves and the US, then a new Depression may just be possible. Right now China still grows at 9% pa according to latest quarter figure. But remember what the past chief trade negotiator Madam Wu Yi said, if China does not grow at least 8% p. a. the unemployment rank will balloon because of the demographics trend. So besides watching for US we better watch China too.