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  • Taking A Long-Term View On Greek Banks

    Nationalizing their 4 biggest banks or letting them go bus won't help anyone. Am betting that they will come through this... What's your take?


    Disclosure: am long on ALBKY and EGFEY since last week, the end of January 2015

    Feb 05 7:57 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Troika In Cyprus: Don't Talk About The ECB's "ELA" Numbers :---(

    The last few days, the Troika has been selling their "rescue" plan of 17 bn Euros. Phew, about time!

    Today, there are reports of 5 bn getting delivered in cash. In addition, the ECB's ELA exceeds 14 bn. And the depositors have been withdrawing funds in branches which remained open overseas or by some other means while banks were officially closed.

    To me, it looks like the taxpayers have been mislead from the beginning. Moreover, with deposits draining away and fractional reserve requirements, the coming run will require xx billions more. But hey, we remember how this was handled in Greece. Several bail outs to end all bailouts :--)

    Can someone clarify how much money is in the fire as of today? My answer: double of whatever the Troika has announced to the press. And once capital controls are ended, you can bet that more folks will vote with their feet and take out their deposits.

    In the mean time, let the parliaments in Berlin, Nikosia, Den Haag and Helsinki debate about less than half the actual money in the fire.

    In addition, you can bet that the courts won't permit this level of inequality when it comes to deposits exceeding 100,000 Euros. 4-5% for some, 40% and more for others. And up to 100% for L.-Bank deposits?!?

    It's time to short the Euro. The Eurogroup lost all credibility when they pressured Ireland into bailing out European banks (unsecured bond holders of AIB). But the fairy tale for the Germans was "you bailed out the Irish"). And now this festering mess!!

    Tags: Cyprus, ECB, IMF
    Mar 28 12:10 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Greek state bankruptcy becoming more likely: watch NBG's graph
    Newspapers keep reporting how unlikely it will be that all parliamens are going to ratify the latest aid package (decided by some leaders). The Bundesbank - not known for its overdramatic tone - is questioning the democractic and legal foundation of the latest decisions.
    While politicians keep playing their little games of deception, suckering the voters into believing "agree to this measure and this will be it" (psst - for the next 12 months), the all powerful market shows how it values NBG. Today, it hit $ 0.87. Check out the options fees paid. 
    NBG owns a very profitable Turkish bank, Finansbank, valued at $ 5.4 bn. It has the most ATMs, branches etc. And I thought it would make it based on its unique position at the heart of the Greek economy. If only it didn't have $ 13 bn of those toxic GR government bonds on its books!!!

    Now you see the whole stinking mess: The ECB keeps buying this junk, aiding French banks etc. How about letting NBG unload its $ 13 junk bonds for 11.xx bn Euros? Be generous, be fair, and make a change in GR with your aid!

    Disclosure: Author is long on NBG and has options positions (sold calls, sold puts, have straddles)
    Tags: NBG, Greek crisis
    Aug 23 6:22 PM | Link | 1 Comment
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