Gregorian

My Position in U.S. Equities Remains Nil

Also sold off most of my stocks some days ago. After a +110% ride in a few months, I get sceptical about the next chapter. Totally agree upon the quasi-predictable trading ranges we seem stuck in.

Well - expecting the almighty dollar-crash a bit early can also be costly. Better safe than sorry.

Beta Shifting Down

That one got to me. I ll probably understand it in a year or two..


On May 08 08:11 AM Freya wrote:

> Gregorian: lets say you control the Media, have control of the Government
> and have your tentacles around the Financial sector.
>
> The Picture you paint will be the one that is seen.

Beta Shifting Down

Just a variance:

"We contest that the American population, grappling with rampant poverty, a class divide, and poor health and education services, will not be able to sustain internal consumption levels sufficient to meet targeted growth level. Other negative trends we’ve followed include: the reversal of foreign investment, the decrease in equity issuance, and a massive national deficit."

:)

Beta Shifting Down

I strongly contest your view about Chindia. If not for else, there's not so many fat people yet as in Europe and US. A lot of remaining growth.

Oh yes, the Indians should fix their water-supply before they buy mobilephones. But they obviousluy don't, and growth in consumer spending/construction could be vigorous for years to come. And Indian companies have the benefit on not having a management who gets paid 10s and 10s of millions ($) for doing their duty.
Did you notice the price-tag for India's moon-mission last year? It was probably less than an average slary for an AIG-boss.

I say cheers, and have a Kingfisher. The best is yet to come.

On Starbucks and McDonald's

If you're in a really strange country, it's nice to find a SB or something else familiar. In Europe, it's much more worth it to experience the local cafes, with much more variance.

Anyhow, congrats on the SBUX bonanza!

(Do you think were going down again. now? Seems everyone has forgotten the Sell in May etc.. mantra this year. makes me sceptical:)

A Junk Stock Rally

Market is based upon confidence. Why dont we just pretend everything is ok?

Why Is Oil Trading at $53 When Supply and Demand Is So Bearish?

"No doubt part of the reason is a jubilant market response to the fiscal policies unveiled by the Obama administration recently. That said, printing money to reflate the economy has its drawbacks."

Did anyone see Bernanke on 60 minutes recently? I guess you did. Anyway, he made it clear that his 3 trillion(ouch!) infusion of new money in the system was bound to cause inflation down the road (and a massive one, I think, with towering interest rates.. ). If the US is going to be the most aggressive country in the world in loosening money-supply, it would totally undermine the dollars strength(and support oil, in dollars). EU and China is not following suit, although Japan has stuck to this policy for years.

Right now it seems the Fed is entangled in shortterm problems. AIG was giving Bernanke the creeps. Like everyone else, the FED have to focus on immanent problems, although the solutions may cause double havoc in the future..

Will IBM Use Sun to Counter Client Computing Competitors?

Congrats.

It's three of my favourite IT-technologies (as an user...) that here will go together. Java, MySQL and IBM are all brands of quality and flexibility. I wish them the best of luck.

When it comes to the economics of this merger; don't ask me. But the timing is certainly better than it could have been in say, late 99'.

Cheers!

The High Dividend Stock Investor's Collapsing Dollar Survival Guide, Part 1

It's abit off topic, but I just have to ask you about this.

"If Iran has a rocket powerful enough to heave a satellite into space, that same rocket can also toss a nuke into Europe"

Have you ever asked yourself WHY they would do this? I think you would end up with no plausible answer...

Europeans buy and consume Iranian oil every day. Would you toss a nuke at your largest export market? I wouldn't. Nobody would.

Dividends: Yield Is Not All That Matters

Interesting points about dividends. I read somewhere (on this site) that american companies on average were to cut their dividends by 19% this year.

That might be very optimistic, in my eyes. Two of my dividend favourites (FRO and SFL) have cut their dividends by about 80 and 50% recently. Many Norwegian stocks have effectively eliminated their dividends. And those companies are not on government life-support (as of yet...) but they just realize they have to braze themselves for the hardships this year.

A good investment these days would be a stock that is most likely to raise its dividends when this crisis eases in a year or two. And how should you find those investments in a secure way? One way would be to find high-payers that has gotten into purely financial problems, eg. with steady incomes but temporarily "too-high" rates on their bonds and loans. Or which is simply stalled because they can get no financing at all.

Maybe you have some good examples of such companies. I have difficulties finding anything where the "perceived" dividends are higher then the "clear-and-present" risks. Although I still hold the shares mentioned above.

The Crude Oil Contango Trade Drives Up Tanker Rates

Well, that can't be a lasting situation. When short and medium term oil contracts are more balanced in a couple of months, this extra demand will vanish.

What could be hoped for however, is a speedup of demolishing/rebuilding single-hull vessels. And a stop in newbuilding orders (Who would lend to that in todyas climate?), but that will take some time to seep through..

Year End Review of My Income Portfolio

Well, your portfolio'd have been a nice starting point NOW, eh? You get the same quality stocks with skyhigh dividend yields... Since it's mostly a paper portfolio, you don't take any actual loss..
Like your investing philosophy, but started at a bad point.

Hedge Fund Redemptions May Crash Q1 Markets

Agree with the ones saying the worst wave of selling is over. It has certainly set the tone for the 3rd and 4th quarter this year. My guess is the worst is over; a wholesale depression is already priced in most equities.

Even with GDPs contracting at 0,5-1,5% for some time (and that won't last long), I think there are many real inexpensive shares out there. Look at dividends, p/e, and p/b, allow yourself a huge margin of error, and make a bet.

Baltic Capesize Index Surges: A Step Towards Industrial Recovery?

I must say, Seeking Alpha, attracts some well-informed commentators. Thanks for the interesting comments.

I recently went to China for the first time, and must say Darburros comment is spot-on. Without high growth, the Party is doomed. And they are building a LOT over there, and they do it FAST. Even though we see a contraction now in most sectors, the rebound is not far away. And China is not (as far as I know) that quagmired in debt (which is drying up..).

BDI will increase in the near future, and I will take positions to take advantage of that.

(For those interested in SFL, I just wrote another comment on that, linked through my nick.)
Thx.

As

Will All Shipping Companies Suffer Equally?

Interesting discussion going on here. I just feel that all you enlightened writers are missing out on something very important when it comes to Frontline and Ship Finance; the main owner of these companies.

His name is John Fredriksen, and is regarded a big celebrity in Norway (a bit like W. Buffett in US). I won't give you the whole story here, but through his Hemen Holding company, he's having de facto control over these companies. It seems like SFL has been given the role of a "bank", while Fro is more like a high-risk player in the tank market.

Many of you seem concerned about the high leverage in these companies. But this has always been Mr. Fredriksens game. He's draining the companies of dividends, BUT at the same time he keeps a (huge) pile of cash ready in case there's a market downturn (and there is one now...right?). Just look at the capital injection in Frontline earlier this year. He's been doing this many times before. He would not let any of his companies go bankrupt, and he has the means to avoid it, too.

So I'd like to make clear that the inherent risk in investing in these shares is much lower than it seems. That includes Fredriksens other companies, such as Seadrill (SDRL) and Golden Ocean (GOGL), but I don't know if these are listed in the US.

"It's always darkest right before sunrise" (bad quotation, hopefully meaning clear..?), nowhere in the investing world is this more true than here. People who'd invest alongside Fredriksen could make 1000% profit, given optimal timing. I know, cause I missed out on it a couple of times already...