Foreverlong07's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/2857621/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1422921/comments?source=feed#comment-18704111 18704111 Yes, I do expect Belviq to outsell Qsymia. Qsymia's distribution channel was severely limited by its REMS, and only recently was allowed to expand its channel in a minor way. Belviq will have a much broader distribution channel, and the marketing prowess of a BP partner, another distinctive difference not enjoyed by Qsymia.]]> Sat, 11 May 2013 03:41:25 -0400 Yes, I do expect Belviq to outsell Qsymia. Qsymia's distribution channel was severely limited by its REMS, and only recently was allowed to expand its channel in a minor way. Belviq will have a much broader distribution channel, and the marketing prowess of a BP partner, another distinctive difference not enjoyed by Qsymia.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1422921/comments?source=feed#comment-18677281 18677281 My guess is that you are very wrong, and there is a very large demand for Belviq. I am in senior management of hospitals, work with a lot physcians as a result, and i think that many of them are waiting for this drug to come out. ]]> Fri, 10 May 2013 11:57:54 -0400 My guess is that you are very wrong, and there is a very large demand for Belviq. I am in senior management of hospitals, work with a lot physcians as a result, and i think that many of them are waiting for this drug to come out. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1321151/comments?source=feed#comment-17245751 17245751 Thanks.]]> Thu, 04 Apr 2013 22:20:55 -0400 Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1297751/comments?source=feed#comment-16807391 16807391 Mon, 25 Mar 2013 23:42:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1269431/comments?source=feed#comment-16239901 16239901 I don't know why you bothered to write about Arena in your column. You really had nothing to say, and what you did say is meaningless. Arena has may positive things going for it, and West Coast Guy said it well. They are one announcement from $12PPS, and they will have it soon. There is no "bad news". There is no news.]]> Wed, 13 Mar 2013 15:04:54 -0400 I don't know why you bothered to write about Arena in your column. You really had nothing to say, and what you did say is meaningless. Arena has may positive things going for it, and West Coast Guy said it well. They are one announcement from $12PPS, and they will have it soon. There is no "bad news". There is no news.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1257091/comments?source=feed#comment-16016961 16016961 Fri, 08 Mar 2013 01:18:22 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1121551/comments?source=feed#comment-13931171 13931171 You are shorting based on what?]]> Sat, 19 Jan 2013 23:52:25 -0500 You are shorting based on what?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1088281/comments?source=feed#comment-13170271 13170271 Mon, 31 Dec 2012 20:18:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1009891/comments?source=feed#comment-11632211 11632211 Thu, 15 Nov 2012 08:34:26 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/943681/comments?source=feed#comment-10825701 10825701 I agree that favorable Qsymia sales foretells great things for our Arena's Belviq. We should see a bounce in Arena's PPS from DEA labeling, but the question is how much of the DEA labeling binary event is built into the PPS. Post DEA labeling, the binary events for Arena could be rather sparse, until the product goes to market. EU approval is months off, and a BP partner for EU will probably be made post EU approval in order to give Arena more leverage. So, the shorts and HF's may continue to frustrate us until the (predictable) sales and profits roll in.

It always comes back to "patience"! Load up if you have dry powder!
Thanks]]> Tue, 23 Oct 2012 20:39:56 -0400 I agree that favorable Qsymia sales foretells great things for our Arena's Belviq. We should see a bounce in Arena's PPS from DEA labeling, but the question is how much of the DEA labeling binary event is built into the PPS. Post DEA labeling, the binary events for Arena could be rather sparse, until the product goes to market. EU approval is months off, and a BP partner for EU will probably be made post EU approval in order to give Arena more leverage. So, the shorts and HF's may continue to frustrate us until the (predictable) sales and profits roll in.

It always comes back to "patience"! Load up if you have dry powder!
Thanks]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/921451/comments?source=feed#comment-10529111 10529111
Thanks]]> Sun, 14 Oct 2012 23:15:18 -0400
Thanks]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/921451/comments?source=feed#comment-10529041 10529041
Thanks for the responses. I had an opportunity to also talk with a physician friend whose mother suffered from PAH, and he corroborated your thoughts Philly, and said that none of the current treatments for PAH are particularly good, and many are difficult to tolerate. ]]> Sun, 14 Oct 2012 23:10:31 -0400
Thanks for the responses. I had an opportunity to also talk with a physician friend whose mother suffered from PAH, and he corroborated your thoughts Philly, and said that none of the current treatments for PAH are particularly good, and many are difficult to tolerate. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/921451/comments?source=feed#comment-10484211 10484211
Another very useful article.

My understanding is that the incidence of new cases of PAH is only about 1 to 2 cases per 906,000 population, and that there are a number of newly developed (as many as 15) therapies for this condition. Therefore, if the incidence of the disease is relatively low, and there are existing treatments that are considered relatively efficacious, what is your understanding of the novelty potential of APD811?]]> Fri, 12 Oct 2012 19:52:05 -0400
Another very useful article.

My understanding is that the incidence of new cases of PAH is only about 1 to 2 cases per 906,000 population, and that there are a number of newly developed (as many as 15) therapies for this condition. Therefore, if the incidence of the disease is relatively low, and there are existing treatments that are considered relatively efficacious, what is your understanding of the novelty potential of APD811?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/908681/comments?source=feed#comment-10265881 10265881
I have to agree with the comments posted above in response to your recap. A large number of the investors in Arena are "extremely" well-researched on the stock, are looking for insightful articles, and are current on the facts. Therefore, we already know that CS is a "hack job" to deliberately drive down the PPS of Arena while they accumulate shares. Gazoo, timmit and HS have aptly pointed out some of the facts.

We would all like to see your recaps hold to a higher standard, and present meaningful and accurate information.

GLTA]]> Sun, 07 Oct 2012 16:08:33 -0400
I have to agree with the comments posted above in response to your recap. A large number of the investors in Arena are "extremely" well-researched on the stock, are looking for insightful articles, and are current on the facts. Therefore, we already know that CS is a "hack job" to deliberately drive down the PPS of Arena while they accumulate shares. Gazoo, timmit and HS have aptly pointed out some of the facts.

We would all like to see your recaps hold to a higher standard, and present meaningful and accurate information.

GLTA]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/889701/comments?source=feed#comment-9902341 9902341
Meant to say that I have seen physicians steer away from problematic drugs when there are safer drugs available like Belviq. ]]> Wed, 26 Sep 2012 18:37:54 -0400
Meant to say that I have seen physicians steer away from problematic drugs when there are safer drugs available like Belviq. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/889701/comments?source=feed#comment-9901321 9901321
Good questions. What I have seen physicians steer away from drugs that present risk, when there is an alternative such as Belviq that may have a slightly lesser efficacy, but is much safer for all concerned. Also, I am not aware that Zoloft and Cymbalta have highly restrictive
REMS, and are restrictive to mail order pharmacies for strict control.]]> Wed, 26 Sep 2012 18:15:18 -0400
Good questions. What I have seen physicians steer away from drugs that present risk, when there is an alternative such as Belviq that may have a slightly lesser efficacy, but is much safer for all concerned. Also, I am not aware that Zoloft and Cymbalta have highly restrictive
REMS, and are restrictive to mail order pharmacies for strict control.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/889701/comments?source=feed#comment-9889381 9889381
Well said! I am not going to get into the battle between the two investor factions of Arena and Vivus, but when I look at what you have said, I wonder why anyone who has the choice would invest in Vivus/Qsymia at this point. I would take my Vivus investment, liquidate it and invest in Arena at these prices. The upside is more predictably positive.]]> Wed, 26 Sep 2012 13:40:53 -0400
Well said! I am not going to get into the battle between the two investor factions of Arena and Vivus, but when I look at what you have said, I wonder why anyone who has the choice would invest in Vivus/Qsymia at this point. I would take my Vivus investment, liquidate it and invest in Arena at these prices. The upside is more predictably positive.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/889701/comments?source=feed#comment-9886411 9886411
Thanks for the article.

I don't think that Qsymia will sell. The reason? Doctors will not be inclined to order it, because they view it as dangerous both for their patients and for them to prescribe as physicians. It is not worth the risk.

Physicians don't like unnecessary liability. They are very risk averse, and do not like to take unnecessary chances. It only takes a one or two cases with mothers who have a child born with a cleft palate or some other malady that resulted from Topiramate.

If you want to strike fear in the heart of a physician, put them on the opposite site of the table from a former patient and their attorney. Physicians take such matters very personally, and they lose sleep over these things.

So while patients may not closely watch the drugs that they allow themselves to take, the doctors are well aware of this and believe "first do no harm to the patient". Fair or not, many doctors will classify Qsymia in the category of fen/phen and will not order it, particularly for females. Finally, the REMS for Qsymia is onerous and physicians will not want to deal with it. They are simply too busy, and don't want the risk of Topiramate besides.

GLTA]]> Wed, 26 Sep 2012 12:51:25 -0400
Thanks for the article.

I don't think that Qsymia will sell. The reason? Doctors will not be inclined to order it, because they view it as dangerous both for their patients and for them to prescribe as physicians. It is not worth the risk.

Physicians don't like unnecessary liability. They are very risk averse, and do not like to take unnecessary chances. It only takes a one or two cases with mothers who have a child born with a cleft palate or some other malady that resulted from Topiramate.

If you want to strike fear in the heart of a physician, put them on the opposite site of the table from a former patient and their attorney. Physicians take such matters very personally, and they lose sleep over these things.

So while patients may not closely watch the drugs that they allow themselves to take, the doctors are well aware of this and believe "first do no harm to the patient". Fair or not, many doctors will classify Qsymia in the category of fen/phen and will not order it, particularly for females. Finally, the REMS for Qsymia is onerous and physicians will not want to deal with it. They are simply too busy, and don't want the risk of Topiramate besides.

GLTA]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/886501/comments?source=feed#comment-9843221 9843221
There are numerous physicians who have studied the science behind Belviq, and support it after careful examination. This article is not only inaccurate, ignoring the science behind Belviq, but is misleading to the investor who has not done his DD. I would classify it as drivel, by a guy who needs to find another hobby. You should IGNORE the article if you have not done your own DD.

With regards to Belviq, pay attention to posts by smart investors like RedAcre Investments (above), Dr. Dan UCLA (OB/GYN), Jim Stevens, Bio-Investor and Dr. Steven Vig (General Internist) and many others who have done their research, are not interested in pushing long or short positions, but have invested in the science that they see and understand. They are not interested in fooling themselves or anyone else.

GLTA]]> Tue, 25 Sep 2012 12:24:48 -0400
There are numerous physicians who have studied the science behind Belviq, and support it after careful examination. This article is not only inaccurate, ignoring the science behind Belviq, but is misleading to the investor who has not done his DD. I would classify it as drivel, by a guy who needs to find another hobby. You should IGNORE the article if you have not done your own DD.

With regards to Belviq, pay attention to posts by smart investors like RedAcre Investments (above), Dr. Dan UCLA (OB/GYN), Jim Stevens, Bio-Investor and Dr. Steven Vig (General Internist) and many others who have done their research, are not interested in pushing long or short positions, but have invested in the science that they see and understand. They are not interested in fooling themselves or anyone else.

GLTA]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/885781/comments?source=feed#comment-9822151 9822151
Forgot to say thanks for the article.]]> Mon, 24 Sep 2012 22:47:27 -0400
Forgot to say thanks for the article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/885781/comments?source=feed#comment-9817341 9817341
Belviq is safe and effective, and will be well-received by physicians. They are many physicians who own stock in Arena, have researched Belviq thoroughly, and believe that it will be a blockbuster drug. The FDA believes Belbiq to be a novel drug, that has the potential to treat Type II diabetes.

While I do not mean to disparage Vivus or Qsymia (a combination of Topiramate and Phentermine), but I do not believe that Qsymia will be able to compete head-on with Belviq. The PPS of both stocks have suffered recently, but for entirely different reasons: Arena, because the hedge funds and institutions bet on the wrong horse (Vivus), and are trying desperately to pull the price down of Arena to allow the HF's to get out of their short positions, while the institutions are trying to get a cheaper investment position in Arena. And, finally while I thought that the FDA's severely restrictive REMS would have a very detrimental effect on Vivus's PPS, the stock price held in well until the EMA dealt Qsymia a major blow by communicating that the EU would probably not approve the drug, and the PPS of Vivus plummeted in recent days.

So, frankly I believe strongly that Arena's Belviq no longer has any competition. The onus is now essentially on Eisai to successfully bring the Belviq to market on a worldwide basis, not only as a weight reduction medication, but as a Type II diabetes treatment. Waiting in the wings, will be the powerful combination of Belviq and Phentermine, which should represent a safe drug with an even higher level of efficacy. And, yes Arena has the patent for this combo. Finally, the level of efficacy is often quoted inaccurately for Belviq to be 3%, however the more informed parties know that the drug achieved more in the 8 to 11% range for completors.

While I may sound like an Areniac, I am not. I simply cannot find a weakness for Belviq to date, and Arena appears to have a number of potential success stories in its pipeline waiting to be developed.]]> Mon, 24 Sep 2012 19:40:44 -0400
Belviq is safe and effective, and will be well-received by physicians. They are many physicians who own stock in Arena, have researched Belviq thoroughly, and believe that it will be a blockbuster drug. The FDA believes Belbiq to be a novel drug, that has the potential to treat Type II diabetes.

While I do not mean to disparage Vivus or Qsymia (a combination of Topiramate and Phentermine), but I do not believe that Qsymia will be able to compete head-on with Belviq. The PPS of both stocks have suffered recently, but for entirely different reasons: Arena, because the hedge funds and institutions bet on the wrong horse (Vivus), and are trying desperately to pull the price down of Arena to allow the HF's to get out of their short positions, while the institutions are trying to get a cheaper investment position in Arena. And, finally while I thought that the FDA's severely restrictive REMS would have a very detrimental effect on Vivus's PPS, the stock price held in well until the EMA dealt Qsymia a major blow by communicating that the EU would probably not approve the drug, and the PPS of Vivus plummeted in recent days.

So, frankly I believe strongly that Arena's Belviq no longer has any competition. The onus is now essentially on Eisai to successfully bring the Belviq to market on a worldwide basis, not only as a weight reduction medication, but as a Type II diabetes treatment. Waiting in the wings, will be the powerful combination of Belviq and Phentermine, which should represent a safe drug with an even higher level of efficacy. And, yes Arena has the patent for this combo. Finally, the level of efficacy is often quoted inaccurately for Belviq to be 3%, however the more informed parties know that the drug achieved more in the 8 to 11% range for completors.

While I may sound like an Areniac, I am not. I simply cannot find a weakness for Belviq to date, and Arena appears to have a number of potential success stories in its pipeline waiting to be developed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/836241/comments?source=feed#comment-8953351 8953351 I think that the sales of Belviq will prove you to be wrong. The placebo adjusted figures have placed it at a level of around 8%+. And, it didn't just barely gain FDA approval. In fact, it was praised by the Dir. of the FDA as a novel drug that delivers more than just a safe and efficient way of losing weight; it has the potential to be a first or second line form of treatment forType II diabetes. Finally, Arena already controls the patent for the combo drug of Bel/Phen which will make its safety/efficacy attributes nearly impossible for any other drug to compete with on a worldwide basis. ]]> Thu, 30 Aug 2012 15:57:51 -0400 I think that the sales of Belviq will prove you to be wrong. The placebo adjusted figures have placed it at a level of around 8%+. And, it didn't just barely gain FDA approval. In fact, it was praised by the Dir. of the FDA as a novel drug that delivers more than just a safe and efficient way of losing weight; it has the potential to be a first or second line form of treatment forType II diabetes. Finally, Arena already controls the patent for the combo drug of Bel/Phen which will make its safety/efficacy attributes nearly impossible for any other drug to compete with on a worldwide basis. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/836241/comments?source=feed#comment-8921121 8921121 Wed, 29 Aug 2012 19:58:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/834361/comments?source=feed#comment-8905841 8905841
The key, as we all know, will be product sales!]]> Wed, 29 Aug 2012 13:22:23 -0400
The key, as we all know, will be product sales!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/822951/comments?source=feed#comment-8671261 8671261
Nice article Spencer!]]> Wed, 22 Aug 2012 18:14:17 -0400
Nice article Spencer!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/817281/comments?source=feed#comment-8581591 8581591
The author is right. Invest in Arena.]]> Mon, 20 Aug 2012 13:07:10 -0400
The author is right. Invest in Arena.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/807171/comments?source=feed#comment-8402511 8402511
Thanks for this timely analysis.]]> Tue, 14 Aug 2012 17:45:15 -0400
Thanks for this timely analysis.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/803611/comments?source=feed#comment-8363591 8363591 Mon, 13 Aug 2012 15:40:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/803611/comments?source=feed#comment-8361721 8361721
So what is the prognosis for SIRI at this point? ]]> Mon, 13 Aug 2012 14:34:21 -0400
So what is the prognosis for SIRI at this point? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/2521091-seeking-truth1956/957001-my-tribute-to-whores-the-truth?source=feed#comment-8323131 8323131 Sat, 11 Aug 2012 18:44:24 -0400