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freeman8201

freeman8201
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  • Update On Natural Gas: The Only Predictable Path Right Now [View article]
    Isn't Apache 1/2 the owner of the Kitimat project? They'd export LNG too.
    Jan 13 11:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Forget About King Coal [View article]
    Unbiased news on western coal exporting.
    http://bit.ly/VYswhM
    News on exporting in the Pacific northwest
    http://huff.to/ZN9n32

    In Bellingham there's resistance to exporting but in Longview, Wa. There's not so much so. Cherry Point coal terminal is being supported by Peabody and Millennium Bulk Terminal by Arch coal and Ambre Energy. I'm not sure about cherry point but Ambre and Arch want to ship very soon.

    After reading the news, I went with Arch coal. In part because arch is the second largest coal producer and T. Boone Pickens and the Millennium Bulk terminal. And because there debt isn't due 'til '16. However, more debt is due each following year 'til '20. It is, however, pre-payable debt. Arch's ceo said it took on debt for the unseeable future of NG and Coal prices.

    I bought in on Arch below 7.80/share. I've been watching the coal stocks since patriot went bankrupt and ANR was booted out of the S&P 500.

    A spokesperson for Kansas City Southern said their company could potentially export coal out of its Mexico terminals but doesn't seem profitable at current prices.
    Jan 13 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Forget About King Coal [View article]
    http://huff.to/13tdy8U
    http://bit.ly/VYswhM
    http://bit.ly/13tdzK4
    http://bit.ly/VYsu9H

    The 2nd and third link probably have the most useful informaiton and is unbiased. the 2nd link by platts and is run by McGraw Hill, which runs S&P. The third link was by far my favorite. This sort of information can give you projections instead of reactions.
    Jan 13 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Thermal Coal Markets Improve, Arch Coal Could Benefit To The Upside [View article]
    http://bit.ly/UeUFld

    Colorado expansion for arch coal.
    Jan 12 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Thermal Coal Markets Improve, Arch Coal Could Benefit To The Upside [View article]
    From http://bit.ly/WASXbZ
    "The Union of Concerned Scientists recently released a report arguing that 353 coal-fired power generators (representing 31 percent of coal-fired generators, 18 percent of the coal-generating capacity, and 6 percent of the nation’s total power capacity) were “ripe for retirement and should be considered for closure.”
    Mounting competition from alternatives such as solar was cited along with the general trend toward more environmentally friendly energy practices in the United States. However, stabilization in natural gas prices (i.e. an increase to about $3.03/mmbtu wellhead as of October 12) plays favorably for North American coal in the short to intermediate future.
    However, the U.S. Government Accountability Office issued a report that suggests EPA regulations could shut down as much as 12 percent of America’s coal-fired energy capacity. The effects of regulation have been downplayed in light of overriding economic concerns, but the regulatory environment can’t be neglected as a factor negatively impacting the industry.
    Conclusion
    Peabody’s strong position in Australia is a leading factor in any bullish case for the company. In the face of natural gas production, American coal consumption is never likely to recover to the levels seen a few years ago. While coal will continue to remain an important part of the North American energy mix, increasing energy demands for developed countries will be satisfied with more efficiencies and renewable energies. Growth in coal demand will be seen overseas, particularly in India and China. Production capacity in Australia means more economical transportation and a leg up on U.S. exports.
    In the political arena, President Barack Obama is not looking to kill coal, but he’s not looking to extend it a gracious hand, either. The regulatory environment currently plays against growth in the American market, but even if the election had turned out differently the reality in the United States is that the future for coal is in exports."
    Coal power generation will be on the decline, but coal companies ought to be good till '20-'25. The article continues:

    "E = Equity-to-Debt Ratio is Not Very Attractive
    Peabody’s debt-to-equity ratio of 1.07 puts it right in between some of its major competitors. Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE:ANR) clocks in at a relatively attractive 0.59, while Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI) lags behind at 1.45.
    It’s also important to consider total debt and total cash on hand, which for Peabody is $6.36 billion in debt and $648 million in cash. Alpha Natural Resources comes to the table with $2.99 billion in total debt and $549.4 million in cash, while Arch Coal carries $4.58 billion in total debt and $650.11 million in cash."
    Jan 12 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Thermal Coal Markets Improve, Arch Coal Could Benefit To The Upside [View article]
    Brazil is going to be building steel structures for the Olympics in '16. Japan wants coal to substitute it's nuclear energy. And the quotes were from its 10-K filings.
    Jan 11 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Thermal Coal Markets Improve, Arch Coal Could Benefit To The Upside [View article]
    http://bit.ly/RKV007

    If anyone is interested in Arch's coal operation in Wyoming. The largest surface mine in America. The company is preparing to export to Asia. The company sales in '11:
    "December 31, 2011
    (In thousands)
    Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . $427,514
    South America . . . . . . 120,842
    North America . . . . . . . 97,255
    Asia . . . . . . . . . .......... 61,308
    Brokered sales . . . .. . . . 213,087
    Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $920,006"

    "In January 2011, the Company purchased a 38% ownership interest in Millennium Bulk Terminals Longview, LLC (‘‘Millennium’’), the owner of a brownfield bulk commodity terminal on the Columbia River near Longview, Washington, for $25.0 million, plus additional future consideration upon the completion of certain
    project milestones. Millennium continues to work on obtaining the required approvals and necessary permits to complete dredging and other upgrades to enable coal, alumina and cementitious material shipments through the terminal. The Company will control 38% of the terminal’s throughput and storage capacity, in order to facilitate export shipments of coal off the west coast of the United States."

    As you may infer, Arch is setting up to make sales to Asian nations. The governor of Washington State is pro export as it will create jobs especially in Cowlitz county which is one of the Poorest Counties WA State. The other owner of the Millennium Bulk terminal is Ambre Energy. I couldn't find the document/slide, but a great deal of Arch's debt, i.e., senior notes and bonds, won't be due till '16 and will continue each following year to '20 I believe. Arch exports to chile, brazil, Japan, europe, and china.
    Jan 11 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Will 2013 Goldilocks Turn Into A Bear? [View article]
    Which article from Paulo?
    Jan 11 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Will 2013 Goldilocks Turn Into A Bear? [View article]
    Thanks for the info Steve. I myself am bullish on coal in the short term, ie, Arch coal. An interesting article I read is the fact that no new coal power plants have not been built in 20+ years. Meanwhile, multiple new natural gas electric plants have been built continuely in the past 10 plus years.
    The obama admn. is in favor, and I believe the general population too, of natural gas and LNG for export and vehicles.
    I don't think those people in Pennsylvania & Ohio enjoy natural gas production.
    Jan 11 12:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Leucadia: Searching For One Last Score? [View article]
    Well, thanks for article. I put a position on this company this week.

    It's reported that First Quantum is attempting to buy out Inmet Mining Corp. with LUK being IMN's largest shareholder

    I read the article and find that Quantum is being advise by "Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Jefferies Group Inc. and RBC Capital Markets are advising First Quantum." Quaint it is that Jefferies is in on this too. http://bloom.bg/11gxDje
    Jan 9 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whither Copper? [View article]
    I'm holding teck for coal and a copper investment. And I believe their copper holdings are in South America too, not sure which country.
    Jan 9 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Las Vegas Sands A Buy For 2013? [View article]
    yeah, I was in Las Vegas during the holidays and the palazzo was pumping. There's an assortment of up scale stores too. I remember a Michael Kors store. I played ~20 on Bally's Michael Jackson slot and a 10 million jackpot slot before calling it quits.
    Jan 8 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking David Einhorn's Portfolio - Q3 2012 Update [View article]
    Ah schucks... then I just did a wrong move. I bought KCG mainly because of the low price, and I wrongly assumed Mr. Einhorn was in on the action too. Although, high-frequency trading is betting on institutional trading.
    Jan 6 11:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The War On Coal: Sell Arch Coal [View article]
    I bought Arch today! Albeit a small position. One that I can ride the volatility without a knee jerk.
    Jan 4 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whoever Gets Knight Gets A Bargain [View article]
    I put a stake in this company today!
    Jan 4 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
428 Comments
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