dayworker

Echostar's Sirius Power Play

This has been in cards a long time. In order for Mel to protect Sirius for himself the PS had to be down so that if there were a hostile takeover he could immediately go into BK. It would look strange if PS were at $1.50
or so and they then went into BK.
As i have said many times their goal is to dump the debt thru BK and wipe
out old shareholders. Then when they emerge thru BK restructuring
they can bring in new money with new issues. With the debt gone and
old equity obligations off the books, Sirius becomes a goose with a
golden egg. The value of the assets, including subs. base, a $2.7 income
stream, future subs thru autos, and growth make the total value much
to high for a quick hostile takeover.
In the meantime, they keep the company under their management.
I don't know how many times I've laid out this scenario. Some said
I was off the mark. But as things are going it looks like that is the scenario.
Keep in mind, my whole premise was that they were operating on the greed principle. They saw the $2.7 bil revenue stream. A solid in this
economic environment. All they had to do was get rid of the debt and the
old stockholders. The only 2 options were private equity or BK. Private
equity is out because of the credit crisis. That only leaves BK.
There is no other option because the revenue is not enough to pay debt, there is no credit available, and a hostile takeover means they
lose the company.
I am sorry for all of us. It hurts to be shafted this way, especially because there was potential if the management had planned and run the company better. But their plans did not include the shareholders.
The reason this could be seen was that when the PS dropped the company could have easily bought the shares. But why would they when
they knew they would go BK.
I've said it before, dump the current shareholders and debt, save the company for the current management , and raise capital with new shareholders.
As far as lawsuits, it would take years and years. In the meantime they
rake in the $2.7 bil year after year. They drain the plaintiffs by stalling and stalling on legal issues.
Then when the company equity is returned they could easily cash out
with a bundle.
The writing is on the wall. It' sad for all of us. We got the shaft and we've
all lost a lot of money. I did try to express this before but I was always
put down. So anyhow, I don't see any other scenario. Maybe some of you do.

Does Ergen Have Enough Leverage to Play Out His Sirius Hand?

I know it hurts and i'm sorry for everyone. I tried to express to everyone that their game was to get rid of debt and shareholders by BK or a low ball
takeover. When there is $2.7 bil income stream the idea for them is to
figure how to get rid of equity holders and debt and end up with a company
that has a subscriber base. As far as lawsuits go, you are looking at years
and years before anything would be settled. In the meantime they would
bleed the plaintiffs dry stalling and stalling. During those years they would be
raking in the $2.7 bil year after year. Once the equity is rebuilt without
old shareholders and debt they could sell it off for a premium.
They know how to play the game for themselves. I've been saying that
all along. It's bad and they are pretty evil people. I feel bad for all of us who bought in truthfully that we had a winner stock. Except it was a winner for them and not us. We all got taken and a big hit financially.
Sorry for all of us. They got us good.

Does Ergen Have Enough Leverage to Play Out His Sirius Hand?

Some didn't agree with my post and called me a silly goose. Well just look at the New York Times article that just came out. I guess then they must be
a silly gaggle.

Does Ergen Have Enough Leverage to Play Out His Sirius Hand?

At this low PS it's either a takeover or BK. I've said that all along.
With the income stream it's a perfect takeover, unless management wants
to keep it for themselves and goes BK. That's why who ever drove the
PS down did it knowing in the future it would be to their advantage. It
wasn't just the shorts trying to turn a profit, there were plans in the works
by different players to get SIRIUS. With $2.7 bil income stream it's a gold
mine. All they have to do is get rid of the shareholders and debt by BK
or low ball buyout and their home free. Their not playing this for shareholder interest. They just use stock investors for the capital they
need and jettison them when they can get away with it.

Sirius Can Expect Good Q4 but Debt's Still an Issue - RBC

What did anyone expect the way this management has handled the books.
Weak future planning and self serving bosses.

Fed Up with Sirius' Childish Customers

SATRAD technology is good, the way management runs it and programming bad. In the hands of youthful,forward thinking, innovative
people SATRAD might come alive. In the hands of the oldtime bozo's it'll
always be just an aging blip of a signal.

Sirius XM: An Equity Adrift

It's unbelievable that the discussion has no come to, wow, maybe ps
will go to .13 and wouldn't be great if it went back to .15. Boy, now were
on the move. We're looking at pennies while some have lost 10's of thousands and some 100's thousands of dollars. These penny numbers
are for the bottom feeders who want a couple of hundred dollar pops.
It's not a part of the big picture.
The article attached to todays blog shows no insider info and just reflects
a very lazy amount of low level financial news and analysis.
Can anyone explain why management won't spill the details on their actual realistic plans to refi and restructure. If they told the street what
the actual plans were then confidence would be restored for ps rise.
The problems are this: One, there is no real info about refi, Two, management doesn't have innovative ideas how to market and use
Sat Rad so that it becomes the must have techy, and Three, the revamping of talent does not inspire new subs. Even with the bad econ.,
tight credit, and slow auto sales, the ipod world keeps humming along.
Those subs pay $75 and higher in monthly fees. And there's alot of them.
So some people are still in the money. Sta Rad could do better if there was the need like ipod demand. Monthly sub prices could rise if people wanted the product and more would sign on, even in the bad econ.
So what's the reason why they won't spill the beans on refi. If they knew
ps would rise wouldn't they do a buy back at .13. Things don't add up.
At .13 it's a great chance to buy back and for them to make a killing.
They must know something is coming down the pike that means ps share will not rise.

Sirius' Future Looks More Promising Than Ever

If management would go public with their plans to refi then some confidence
would be restored the debt will be taken care of and ps will rise.
The failure to give the market some some solid evidence of the plan to
pay off debt is a contributing factor of the low ps.
Why won't they give us the specifics. Also, why don't they consider junk
bond issues. Their are players in the market looking for junk bond returns.
With SIRI's good revenue stream and potential subs growth a junk bond could be a good investment. It would pay off debt and show a better balance sheet.
As far as RS split, who does it help. It may help the bosses and the talent
but the early common shares get whacked. So basically it's for future
stock players, management and talent. It's robbing Peter to pay Paul.
It's like sacrificing the army to save the generals and the new arriving
troops.
The situation SIRI is in reflects a short sighted management as far as budget planning, overspending and using the potential of a one industry
Sat Rad incompetently as a business model. The management really
comes up short as far as tapping the younger generations for a must have
techy like the ipod or a navigator. They don't get it as far as making it
something everyone wants to have. Where are the big concerts everyone
wants to hear. The new young talent everyone wants to hear. Their still
using SIRI for a lot old timers like themselves.

Open Letter to Sirius XM: Take Us Listeners into Consideration

As far as product, according to the announcement, aren't we all looking forward to Regis Philbin and Bing Crosby this Xmas. Wow, what good programing. Why don't they bring back Dinah Shore, Guy Lombardo and
Lawernce Welk while their at it. What a bunch of rummy's running this company. A lot of old farts out of touch, with no new ideas or product
concepts. I bet a lot long haul drivers can't wait to hear Martha's Xmas
cookie recipe's. They just can't wait to get back to the kitchen and put on
their aprons and start baking. What we have here IS A FAILURE TO
COMMUNICATE> LITERALLY. Great new technology in the shriveled
old hands of worn out media losers.

Open Letter to Sirius XM: Take Us Listeners into Consideration

Of these posts, figures it would happen. Managements fault. They don't have their product act together or their fiscal house in order. It's all falling apart and everyone's whacking each other. Because management and leadership are pretty dysfunctional and can't pass anything good on to the
SIRI users and investors. But it's fun to watch the brawling. Keep it going
blokes, have at each other. Chaos rules and is in the house.

Five Positive Points on Sirius: Is the Street Listening?

And same to all, good comments, good luck and a good weekend.
No hard feelings to 163888, Peace

Five Positive Points on Sirius: Is the Street Listening?

Cos
Understood. Good luck and have a good weekend.

Five Positive Points on Sirius: Is the Street Listening?

Cos1000
I know, I was just being a little sarcastic. Because 163888 always stands up
for management that they've been forth coming and laid the cards on the table. I just don't see it. But 163888 seems to think they have been totally truthful about future scenarios and we've all been informed. So I was just asking for him to tell us in his own words. But thanks, I know you're right.
Also thanks for all your good posts. I doubt 163888 will give us anything anyway.

Five Positive Points on Sirius: Is the Street Listening?

163888
Based on what you have said then, the plans have posted, published and stated for the street, stockholders and investors.
From your interpretation of this knowledge, which according to you has been deciminated without inaccurracies, then please state, in your words what you think they have told us. Just go step by step what you think they will do. Then we will all know the scenario.
For instance, are they going to do RS at 50:1, 40:1, 30:1, etc.
When are they going to do it.
When are they going to do the dilution.
Now, according to you, they have told us they will do this, how much money do they > estimate< they will raise. Just an estimate.
Now, they have said, supposedly, they will pay off debt from new issues.
You are definite they will use the money for debt, and not expenditures, salaries, and new talent or marketing/advertising, or sac.
They also are aware that after RS most stockholders who are in at ,say, $1.50 and up have little chance to recoup because ps has to go at $50
to $100 to recoup. So, you say, they know this, and it's the price everyone has to pay in order to survive and get profitable for future investors and management pay with stocks. They have told this to the
current stockholders. Of course, there is always the possibility the ps
will go that high. But they are aware the SIRI is shorted heavily. So they
are aware of the market environment. And yet these are the plans you
said they have spoken of somewhere. Just want to get your scenario because you said they have made this known and you know how this will play out. I just want to make sure we get it right because you said it's all been revealed truthfully and so you shouldn't have any problem laying out how you see the scenario based on what you believe they have said.
Because, otherwise, all the discussions on this blog about what might happen were for nothing, because we should already know what they are going to do. According to you they have told us. So just for the sake of the bloggers here, could just go over it again.
The scenario is.........
About RS, dilution, new issues for debt and restructuring, ad plans,
renegotiating fees, pay compensation, sac,revenue growth, subs
projection,and cutting oe's. In this way, what you tell us they have said
will give us a projection model how the balance sheet will look in a year.
And this plan and scenario you will tell us has been put out by them and we will all be out of the dark. And then the ps will go up because this
scenario will tell the market SIRI will become mucho profitable. Thanks for
helping us out.

Five Positive Points on Sirius: Is the Street Listening?

16388
Understood. Give Mel the benefit of the doubt. You're his cheerleader on this blog. Let's say he's done a good job. Now, let him come out and give
us his specific details on what he exactly plans to do, how he is going to
raise the money (details), how he is going to use the money, how he is going to restructure, how he is going to cut costs, the advertising and
marketing plans, his plan to get the ps higher, and get the fiscal house in order to show the balance sheet will be better in a year. Just some real
specifics.
I do this all the time. We have a film corp. to run. I 've set up and run other corps. and business entities. I manage a large investment portfolio.
As honest brokers we share all the details and try to hit our marks. We don't hide and give perfunctory answers. His hiding the plans in the shadows does not create credibilty. We're not idiots, we can handle the truth. Just give it to us.